Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
323 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 323 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2016

An active H5 continues across the CONUS this morning.
Strong shortwaves were noted over western New York state, the
Mississippi Delta region, and north central Nevada. Ht. falls of 50
to 150 meters were noted over the intermountain west with the
greatest falls over Utah, western Colorado and western Wyoming. A
nice 70-90 KT jet streak extended from northern California into
southern Nevada. East of the main shortwave over northern Nevada, a
secondary shortwave was noted near the four corners. Upstream of the
Nevada shortwave, another shortwave was located off the coast of
British Columbia. Current WV imagery now has the Nevada shortwave
in northern Utah, with the four corners shortwave now over south
central Colorado. At the surface, strong low pressure was located
over southeastern Montana and north central Colorado. A surface
trough of low pressure extended from the southeastern Montana low
into southeastern Colorado. A cold front extended to the southwest
of the Montana low into southwestern Wyoming, while a warm front
extended northeast into central North Dakota. Strong southerly winds
were present across western and north central Nebraska this
afternoon and winds were gusting in the 35 to 45 MPH range. Skies
were partly to mostly cloudy and readings were in the upper 70s to
lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2016

Focus is strong southerly winds and ending fire weather concerns
late this afternoon along with severe weather potential which
lingers overnight.

Convection already firing across the western panhandle of Nebraska
and as the short wave pushes east this evening and overnight, expect
storms chances to continue. Afternoon clearing across western Neb.
has allowed for some destabilization of the atmosphere. Cape values
have increased to 1000 to 2000 J/KG with 40 to 50 kts of 0 to 6 km
shear. Corridor of greatest concern is across the western Sandhills
this evening with less of a threat as cooler temps occur in the BL
overnight and the storms push east. Severe thunderstorm watch
already out and will continue to monitor for possibly expansion to
the east later. Ahead of the wave this evening will be strong
south/southeasterly winds, locally gusting to 50 mph.

Finally is the fire weather concerns across far SW Neb, see fire
weather discussion for more information as it only is in effect a
few more hours.

Change in the air for tomorrow behind the cold front. Highs in the
upper 60s to lower 70s and outside of a few linger showers across
far eastern zones, dry conditions. Winds will also be west at 10 to
20 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2016

Tuesday night through Thursday...In the mid range, the
threat for precipitation Late Wednesday night into Thursday is the
main forecast challenge. The threat for precipitation will come to
an end across eastern sections of the forecast area by Tuesday
afternoon as the upper level low lifts into northern North Dakota.
This will place the forecast area in decent subsidence Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning. Weak high pressure will build into the
forecast area Tuesday night with clear skies and drier air.
Overnight lows will reach the mid to upper 30s with some lower 30s
in the western sandhills and northwestern Nebraska. This may
facilitate the need for a frost advisory in the west for Tuesday
night. Right now, there is some discrepancies between the MAV and
MET guidance with respect to lows Tuesday night. The MAV is running
5 degrees warmer compared to the MET guidance for North Platte. The
MET and NAM12 is quite a bit drier in the boundary layer and this
could be influenced by the amount of pcpn we receive in the next 12
hours. That being said, would like to see how much the low level RH
field is impacted by coverage of pcpn before inserting any mention
of frost or issuing headlines for such. We have time to analyze this
over the next 12 to 24 hrs and make a decision then. That being
said, have not lowered min temps toward the cooler MET guidance just
yet but compromised between the MET, MAV and the inherited grids. By
Wednesday afternoon, a second shortwave, currently off the coast of
British Columbia will track into the intermountain west. Downstream
of this approaching wave, mid level frontogenesis will begin to
increase late Wednesday into Thursday. Strong lift along this fronto
band will lead to precipitation late Wednesday night into Thursday.
The models have shifted the best lift slightly further north with
this mornings runs with the best chances for rain existing from the
southern panhandle into north central Nebraska. The latest model
solutions including the NAM12, ECMWF and Canadian are too warm for
snow formation, while the GFS is cooler and develops snow in the
northwestern CWA late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. Per
cross sections taken across the fronto band, the strongest lift is
not within the dendritic growth zone in the GFS solution, so we are
not expecting snowfall rates high enough to have it reach the
ground. That is if the GFS verifies, and right now it is the outlier
compared to the EC, NAM12 and Canadian solutions. With this in mind,
decided to keep all precipitation mention as liquid for now.

Thursday night through Monday...A benign dry pattern will set in
behind the exiting disturbance. Cold temperatures with lows in the
upper 20s are likely Friday morning with a hard freeze possible in
the western forecast area. Will continue to hit this hard in the HWO
as this will likely be the end to the growing season. After highs in
the 60s Friday, highs will climb back to around 70 Saturday, then
the middle 70s for Sunday and Monday. Dry conditions are expected
through the period as low amplitude flow aloft will develop across
the central CONUS this weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2016

Southerly winds continue to blow today with gusts 30 to 40 kts.
High clouds overhead with clearing across SW Neb which will
continue to expand east this afternoon. Next mid level wave and
associated sfc cold front arrives late this afternoon into this
evening with a line of thunderstorms expected to develop and push
across the area early tonight. Stronger storms expected across
northern Neb which could include a squall line. Less confidence
for impact to the KLBF terminal and will need to monitor for
potentially very strong winds. Winds diminish and become westerly
behind the front, and expect some clearing with only some high
clouds lingering in the morning. Westerly winds generally
expected to be around 10 kts or less.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 323 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2016

The dry line has not made it into far western Nebraska yet however
it will likely push into the region in the next few of hours,
towards the tail end of the red flag warning. No change to the
warning as there continues to be very strong winds across the region
and this area is seeing the lower rh values, and am expecting them
to continue to lower. They are likely to only fall into the 20s
percent, however with the strong winds and dry fuels it will not
take much for fire to spread quickly. Tomorrow will see more cooler
and drier conditions across the region. More widespread RH values in
the 20 to 30 percent range, however westerly winds will remain less
than 20 mph. Another dry day is low minimum RH values then precip
chances return.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for NEZ204-210.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Masek
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Masek
FIRE WEATHER...Masek

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
328 PM CDT MON OCT 3 2016

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-042030-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
328 PM CDT MON OCT 3 2016 /228 PM MDT MON OCT 3 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA. STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEGINNING THIS EVENING. THE AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE FOR
AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 183. HAIL TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER HAZARDS.

VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. THE GUSTY
WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH VERY DRY AIR ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TO
PRODUCE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST
OF A OSHKOSH TO HAYES CENTER LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA WILL SEE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. A WIDESPREAD
FROST OR FREEZE IS LIKELY WITH PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE AND THE
WESTERN SANDHILLS POSSIBLY SEEING THE FIRST HARD FREEZE OF THE
SEASON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

&&

GET YOUR WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL...AND CLIMATE INFORMATION AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE (ALL LOWERCASE)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
541 PM CDT MON OCT 03 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     HAIL             ELSIE                   40.85N 101.39W
10/03/2016  M0.75 INCH       PERKINS            NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL COMPLETELY COVERING THE ROAD. ALSO ESTIMATED 50 MPH
            WIND GUSTS AND MINOR STREET FLOODING.

&&

ET

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
549 PM CDT MON OCT 03 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0543 PM     HAIL             1 N ELSIE               40.86N 101.39W
10/03/2016  E1.00 INCH       PERKINS            NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNIES TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL COVERED THE GROUND.

0543 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 N ELSIE               40.86N 101.39W
10/03/2016  M2.00 INCH       PERKINS            NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL OF 2.0 INCHES RAINFALL.

&&

JGOMEZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
503 PM MDT MON OCT 3 2016

NEZ023-024-094-032345-
WESTERN CHERRY NE-HOOKER NE-GRANT NE-
503 PM MDT MON OCT 3 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CHERRY...CENTRAL
GRANT AND NORTHWESTERN HOOKER COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM MDT...

AT 503 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM 28 MILES NORTH OF ASHBY TO 10 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF HYANNIS. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HYANNIS...ASHBY...WHITMAN...HIRE...CARR LAKE...PRATT LAKE...
INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 61 AND SURVEY VALLEY ROAD...
WHITMAN ROAD CROSSING THE NORTH BRANCH OF THE MIDDLE LOUP RIVER...
ROUND LAKE...WEIR...DULUTH...DIPPING VAT MEADOW...
SPECKEL MEIR LAKE...SWEDE LAKE AND MOTHER LAKE.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 HIGHWAY 2 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 137 AND 171.
 HIGHWAY 61 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 145 AND 195.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT FOR
NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4260 10130 4192 10129 4179 10196 4246 10191
TIME...MOT...LOC 2303Z 255DEG 26KT 4244 10186 4186 10187

BUTTLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
621 PM CDT MON OCT 03 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     TSTM WND GST     SE MERRIMAN             42.92N 101.70W
10/03/2016  E70 MPH          CHERRY             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED 65 TO 70 MPH WINDS.

&&

JGOMEZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
630 PM CDT MON OCT 3 2016

NEZ057>059-040015-
KEITH NE-LINCOLN NE-PERKINS NE-
630 PM CDT MON OCT 3 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN KEITH...EASTERN PERKINS
AND WESTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM CDT/615 PM MDT/...

AT 628 PM CDT/528 PM MDT/...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING SCATTERED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES NORTH OF
SUTHERLAND TO 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ELSIE. MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST AT
40 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTH PLATTE...SUTHERLAND...HERSHEY...PAXTON...WALLACE...MADRID...
ELSIE...DICKENS...SARBEN...
SUTHERLAND RESERVOIR STATE RECREATION AREA...SOMERSET...
BIG BALD HILL...GRAINTON...NEVENS...COKER...O'FALLONS AND BIRDWOOD.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 HIGHWAY 97 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 16.
 INTERSTATE 80 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 140 AND 177.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT/900
PM MDT/ FOR SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4139 10069 4070 10088 4071 10158 4139 10139
TIME...MOT...LOC 2328Z 212DEG 43KT 4133 10107 4077 10130

MASEK

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