Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
625 PM CDT MON SEP 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Mon Sep 5 2016

Pesky stratus continues across far southwest and much of northern
Nebraska this afternoon. A cold front has slowed to a crawl this
afternoon and is analyzed from southwest Nebraska through central
Nebraska into southeast S Dakota. This frontal boundary is
expected to be the focus for thunderstorms, some severe, this
evening into the overnight period. The HRRR/RUC develop storms
across the far eastern CWA late this afternoon then lift the
activity to the northeast. Good shear combining with abundant low
level moisture and instability for some to become severe. The main
threat is hail and winds although if there are any outflow
boundaries which cause a localized backing of winds, there could
be a small window for a tornado threat.

Meanwhile a weak mid level disturbance crossing the rockies will
lift across the area with a chance for storms across the CWA this
evening into the overnight. These storms are likely to be elevated
and do not see as much of a severe potential, although could see
some hail. Final concern will be the stratus/fog. Persistence
looks to be a good forecast with northwest Neb to see the
development first and it should expand to the south and east
behind the front. Have included areas of fog in the forecast,
although a concern for showers to cause the fog bounce up and
down.

Tomorrow expect the stratus to persist through the day and limit
heating. Highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s for most locations,
however the front still across the far southeastern portions of
the CWA and highs could return to the 80s in the vicinity of the
boundary where there could be a little more sun.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Mon Sep 5 2016

The main concerns this period is a marginal risk for strong to
severe thunderstorms tomorrow night with the possibility of
locally heavy rain, and then temperatures going into the extended
period. SPC has roughly the southeast half of the forecast area
in a marginal risk area in the Day 2 Outlook.

Large scale pattern in the beginning of the period is similar to
the past couple of days with a upper level trough over the
Intermountain West and a ridge over the Upper Mississippi Valley
into the Lower Great Lakes. The pattern will undergo a change over
the two day period as the aforementioned trough slowly progresses
eastward into the upper Great Lakes; meanwhile, another weak
trough will move into the Northern Rockies and western Northern
Plains. Height rises will be occurring over western and north
central NE Wednesday night into Thursday as a zonal flow sets up
by Wednesday night in the 500 hPa pattern. An inverted trough and
associated frontal boundary is expected to be present roughly
from extreme northwest KS to central NE to west central IA
extending from a surface low in northeast CO.

The forecast remains similar to the inherited forecast with rain
showers and thunderstorms anticipated to be focused near/on the
trough and boundary late afternoon and evening Wednesday. Wherein,
favorable moisture is expected to combine within a corridor of
decent instability. Vertical wind shear, 0-6 km bulk, exceeding 40
kts will be supportive of supercells with respect to storm mode in
the beginning then it's expected to transition into a convective
system. Some uncertainty in the exact location of the boundary and
trough at this point, however, hail, strong winds, and possible
locally heavy rainfall appear possible. The latter as Tuesday
night will be in a favorable moist environment with high
precipitable water, forecast to exceed 1.5” across parts of the
forecast area, decent moisture transport, and supportive steering
flow orientation. Attention then turns to convection continuing
overnight as a possibility given the support of the low level jet
developing nearby and a decent short wave trough at 500 hPa moving
southwest-northeast tomorrow night.

Wednesday, the frontal boundary and associated trough will be
south and east of the forecast area with the boundary becoming
more diffuse. Another weak surface trough expected to extend north
over the NE Panhandle. Meanwhile, a 500 hPa shortwave will move
through the forecast area Wednesday providing large scale ascent.
Wherein, the eastern half could see additional activity. The
current thinking though is that the best chances for precipitation
will be mainly across the eastern-third of the forecast area
during the afternoon. Largely dry conditions are then anticipated
Wednesday night through Thursday. Looking ahead, the next period
with increased chances for showers and thunderstorms will be in
the Thursday Night-Friday time period when the next disturbance
arrives aloft. A cold front is expected to push through and
provide lift moving about northwest to southeast late Thursday
into Friday. This will result in Friday being the coolest day as
cooler air fills in behind with highs forecast in the lower to mid
70s, except for mid to upper 70s in the extreme south and
southeast portions of the forecast area. Lows the following
morning/Friday night are expected to read in the mid to upper 40s,
except lower 40s in portions of western NE. Thereafter, dry
conditions are expected this weekend. Beginning Sunday, a long
wave trough begins to drop into the western CONUS, reaching the
Intermountain West early Monday with southwest flow prevailing
across western and north central NE again Monday with it the
possibility of increased chances of precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Mon Sep 5 2016

The main focus through Tuesday afternoon is a cold front draped
across western Nebraska. As of 06/00z, the front stretches
generally from KONL to KBBW to KOGA and is nearly stationary. Isolated
to scattered thunderstorms are possible during the evening and
night hours, tapering off after 06/06z. Ahead of the front in
southwest and central Nebraska, some storms may be strong or
severe, capable of producing erratic gusty winds, hail, and heavy
rain which may lower visby. Behind the front across northern
Nebraska, light winds and remnant moisture will likely lead to a
thick stratus deck and potentially fog overnight. The stratus may
not lift until mid to late Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Masek LONG TERM...ET AVIATION...Masek
AVIATION...Snively

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
353 PM CDT MON SEP 5 2016

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-062100-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
353 PM CDT MON SEP 5 2016 /253 PM MDT MON SEP 5 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG A STALLING COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN IS EAST
OF A LINE FROM IMPERIAL TO VALENTINE LINE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

OVERNIGHT FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1 MILE WILL
BE ALONG AND WEST OF A NORTH PLATTE TO AINSWORTH LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
EAST OF A LINE FROM OSHKOSH TO AINSWORTH. STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING INTO
FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE SEVERE THREAT IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF A
BROKEN BOW TO ONEILL LINE.

&&

GET YOUR WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL...AND CLIMATE INFORMATION AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE (ALL LOWERCASE)

MASEK

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