Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
313 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Thu Aug 11 2016

Tonight and Friday...the sfc cold front across Ncntl Neb will be
the focus for scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon and
this evening. A subtropical disturbance is moving north from KS
and poised to operate on the front. Around 1.5 inches of ambient
precipitable water is in place.

A second disturbance across Ern WY is forecast to move southeast
through Nebraska tonight. This rain would be in the form of
elevated thunderstorms. POPs for both systems are capped at 40
percent to reflect scattered storm coverage.

Lows tonight fall into the 50s to mid 60s. The drier air moves
into Wrn Neb overnight with residual 60+ dew points still in
place across Ncntl Neb. A blend of guidance plus bias correctionsuggested
highs in the low to mid 80s Friday. Dew points continue to slowly
drop with light north winds reducing dew points into the 50s
across all areas by late afternoon.

CAPE and bulk effective shear are quite high this
afternoon...3000-4000 J/KG and 40 to 50 kt which would support
strong or severe storm development with any storms which become
rooted in the lower layers of the atmosphere.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Thu Aug 11 2016

Friday Night through Sunday: The main concerns this period are
precipitation chances through Saturday night and temperatures.
Confidence is low for any strong storms during this period, with
no severe storms expected. Northwest flow and cooler temperatures
aloft at low-levels, compared to what we have seen early this week,
should bring about near normal high and low temperatures for this
period.

The base of a long wave trough aloft at 500 hPa will be over
roughly the eastern Central Plains at the start of the period
while ridging will be ongoing over the west coast CONUS. The
longwave trough will slowly move east over the upper Great Lakes
as the west coast ridge becomes less amplified and moves east into
the intermountain West/central Great Basin by early Sunday.
Ridging will be ongoing across western and north central NE Sunday
as the ridge then moves over the southern and central Rockies. By
and large, northwest flow will prevail aloft around 20-25 kts in
the first half of the period then becoming more weak thereafter.
Two short-wave troughs will lead to slight chances for
precipitation early tomorrow night then increased chances on
Saturday. Meanwhile, the surface pattern will be rather innocuous,
with elongated surface low pressure south and east of the forecast
area at the start of the period and broad high pressure moving in.
By Saturday afternoon, broad surface high pressure will be in
place overhead across the Northern/Central Plains and the
Upper/Middle Mississippi valley. This pattern doesn't change much
by Sunday with the aforementioned broad area of high pressure
centered now more over the Upper/Middle Mississippi valley and
upper Great Lakes.

By the start of the period, the atmospheric column will be
notably drier compared to now, with precipitable water values
approaching seasonal normals, at about 0.9-1.0 inches. May see a
few isolated rain showers/thunderstorms across extreme western NE
Saturday night, mainly before midnight, with the first
disturbance. Otherwise, the best chances for precipitation will be
Saturday afternoon/evening when a short-wave trough provides
large-scale broad weak ascent as it moves southeast through the
area. This combined with low instability on Saturday will provide
the best chances for rain showers/thunderstorms during this
period. In regard to thunderstorms, increased chances for
thunderstorms primarily across western NE with rain showers more
probable elsewhere. Afterward, Sunday is anticipated to be mainly
dry across the forecast area with the aforementioned ridge
building. SPC has the western two-thirds of the forecast area in a
general thunderstorm area on Saturday, which appears appropriate
given the instability, weak 0-6 km shear attributable to the weak
flow aloft, and available moisture.

Sunday Night through Thursday: Looking ahead, the general pattern
appears mostly dry with a few opportunities for rain
showers/thunderstorms. However, low likelihood for any severe
weather or moderate-heavy rainfall through mid week at this time.
Mid-level flow will stay primarily west northwest and temperatures
aloft at low-levels stay moderated. In general, highs are
anticipated to be slightly near normal during this period and low
temperatures near to slightly above normal. Start to see more
appreciable differences in the deterministic guidance in the large
scale pattern beginning Wednesday with the ECMWF being stronger in
amplitude and different in phase/location with mid-level trough
over the Canadian Prairies - GFS is a bit slower in comparison.
This will more so influence and complicate temperatures/PoPs a bit
Thursday and lowers confidence.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Thu Aug 11 2016

The SREF and ECM suggest VFR cigs late tonight and Friday morning.
By 06z this evening...the cold front moving through Ncntl Neb this
afternoon should be south and east of the area. Drier air will be
in place with dew points in the lower 50s. This will reduce the
risk of MVFR cigs...currently underway across parts of Western and
North Central Nebraska.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible ahead of a cold
front moving through North Central Nebraska this afternoon and
this evening...mainly affecting areas east of highway 83.
Isolated strong or severe thunderstorms are possible across
Western Nebraska...associated with an upper level disturbance
moving through Northeast Wyoming this afternoon. These storms will
affect Western Nebraska later this afternoon and this evening.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...CDC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
340 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-122045-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
340 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016 /240 PM MDT THU AUG 11 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING WITH SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT. THE AREA OF CONCERN IS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF A LINE FROM SPENCER TO ATKINSON TO CALLAWAY TO HAYES CENTER.
ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA ALSO. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE ARE THE THREAT WITH ANY
STORMS WHICH BECOME SEVERE. ISOLATED LANDSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL
EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME
THE PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

GET YOUR WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL...AND CLIMATE INFORMATION AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE (ALL LOWERCASE)

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
623 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

NEZ038-120015-
CUSTER NE-
623 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL CUSTER AND
NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

AT 623 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
ARNOLD...OR 18 MILES EAST OF STAPLETON...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM ALONG WITH 1 INCH
OF RAINFALL.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ARNOLD...CALLAWAY...MILLDALE AND FINCHVILLE.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 92 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 247 AND 254.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4123 9986 4134 10024 4148 10023 4142 9979
TIME...MOT...LOC 2323Z 286DEG 21KT 4140 10017

CDC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
529 PM MDT THU AUG 11 2016

NEZ004-120015-
SHERIDAN NE-
529 PM MDT THU AUG 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN SHERIDAN COUNTY
UNTIL 615 PM MDT...

AT 528 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR WILD HORSE BUTTE...OR 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF ALLIANCE...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KRAUSE LAKE...LAKESIDE...DIAMOND LAKE...WICKSON LAKE AND SNOW LAKE.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 HIGHWAY 250 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 4 AND 16.
 HIGHWAY 2 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 105 AND 109.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT FOR
THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4224 10234 4211 10240 4204 10246 4213 10274
      4237 10275
TIME...MOT...LOC 2328Z 299DEG 22KT 4224 10272

ET

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
553 PM MDT THU AUG 11 2016

NEZ024-120045-
HOOKER NE-
553 PM MDT THU AUG 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN THOMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
HOOKER COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM MDT...

AT 553 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14
MILES SOUTH OF SENECA...OR 14 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MULLEN...MOVING
NORTH AT 10 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SHIMMONS LAKE.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 97 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 46 AND 48.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT FOR
NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4203 10088 4188 10084 4185 10084 4173 10097
      4174 10097 4187 10103
TIME...MOT...LOC 2353Z 196DEG 10KT 4185 10092

CDC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
655 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

NEZ038-120045-
CUSTER NE-
655 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CUSTER COUNTY UNTIL
745 PM CDT...

AT 655 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES WEST OF MERNA TO NEAR CALLAWAY.
MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CALLAWAY...OCONTO...LODI AND PRESSEY STATE WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT FOR
CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4131 9954 4105 9969 4127 10005 4148 9989
TIME...MOT...LOC 2355Z 300DEG 22KT 4145 9987 4126 9999

CDC