Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1202 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2016

A warm front is currently located across northern Kansas. A
reservoir of lower 70s dew points resides across southern and
southwest Nebraska to the north of the boundary. This area has low
level easterly upslope flow, with a around 3000 to 4000 J/KG of
surface based cape. A shortwave trough is moving northeast across
Colorado and Wyoming this afternoon. This will turn to the east
this evening as it rounds the crest of the southern plains upper
level high pressure system. Expect an MCS to evolve across
western/southwest Nebraska early this evening, and then track to
the east overnight. This scenario has been supported by the hourly
runs of the HRRR-EXP and HRRR models all day, and with the
favorable upslope environment and the approaching shortwave
trough, this seems likely to occur. Precipitable water values are
quite high so heavy rain could occur as the storms cross the area.
Strong winds are also expected with a limited threat of hail.

Warm front lifts north tomorrow with the first day of real heat
expected. H850mb temps rise to between 25 and 30C by afternoon,
which will support most areas reaching into the middle and upper
90s for highs.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2016

Tuesday Night through Thursday: The spirit of the going forecast
for Wednesday and Thursday were largely on track in terms of the
temperature and humidity forecast. Deterministic models are in
good agreement in this period with the evolution of large-scale
features. A large mid-level high, about 598 dam, will be
positioned over near southeast KS/northeast OK/southwest MO at
the start and will only shift very little during this time period,
moving west to near central OK/Texas Panhandle by late Thu. The
warm air mass will be entrenched across western and north central
NE at the start of the period. The 850 hPa thermal ridge will be
over western NE Wed with 850 hPa temperatures ranging between
28-34 C. Thereafter, the axis then moves over central NE with a
30-34 C 850 hPa temperature range Thu. A very humid air mass will
be in place at the lower-levels: 850 hPa and surface Tds peaking
about 10-12 C and mid 50s to lower 60s F (west to east across the
CWA in the afternoon), respectively. Insolation will be adequate
over this time period as well with mostly sunny skies expected.

Highs are anticipated to be in the far upper 90s to lower 100s
Wednesday and Thursday. The more humid conditions will be confined
roughly to the eastern two-thirds of the CWA across portions of
central, north central and southwest NE. Wherein, max heat index
values will exceed 100, mainly into the lower 100s.

There is growing possibility that max heat index values will
exceed 105 degrees on both Wed and Thu across the southernmost
counties of Hayes, Frontier and the easternmost counties of Boyd,
Holt, and Keya Paha. Otherwise, overnight/min heat index values
Tuesday Night and Wednesday Night across the forecast area will be
mainly in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Slight chances for thunderstorm activity Wed Night, Wednesday, and
Thu. A 500 hPa shortwave will be rounding the ridge Wed afternoon
and evening along with a lee side trough deepening across the
central and northern Great Plains (i.e., western Dakotas, far east
WY, northeast CO, NE Panhandle) Wednesday. However, instability
and low-level temperatures/cap will be an issue Wed Night.
Similarly, these issues will continue on Wed and Thu.

The surface low pressure will then move slightly east Wed. The sfc
trough will weaken overnight Wed and then deepen Thu across
eastern CO/northwest KS/western NE. There will also be a few more
mid-level weak disturbances rounding the mid-level ridge Wed and
Thu. However, storms will be difficult to develop and sustain
with the cap/warm temperatures aloft at lower-levels (e.g., 700
hPa temperatures 16-18 C). As such, there is low confidence in
measurable PoPs overall.

Thursday Night through Friday Night: The aforementioned trough
will deepen to a weak surface low Thursday Night with a center
somewhere in western or central SD with a trough across central NE
and a weak cold front extending west from the low. While a mid-
level trough will be moving across the northern great
plains/Canadian Prairies early Fri, affecting the mid-level high
in the southern CONUS, not much relief will be observed across the
forecast area. Latest guidance and current thinking is that
Friday will be another hot day. The surface low will be moving
very little Friday and the latest guidance delays the weak cold
front some with the frontal passage through the CWA not
anticipated until late Friday. Potential for a few storms exist
Friday as well, however, similar issues to contend with in regard
to a cap.

Saturday through Monday: Surface high pressure builds in Saturday
across the forecast area and should persist Sunday. There will be
some relief with high temperatures -- highs are expected to be in
the upper 80s to lower 90s this weekend and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Tue Jul 19 2016

Thunderstorms moving through southwest into central Nebraska will
keep thunderstorms in the klbf terminal until 08z. Otherwise
expect clearing skies from west to east overnight. vfr conditions
behind the thunderstorms later tonight and on Tuesday. There is a
slight chance a thunderstorm could move into the kvtn terminal
tuesday evening.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Excessive Heat Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Friday
evening for NEZ005>010-025>029-037-038-057>059-069>071.

&&

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...Roberg

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
400 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2016

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-192100-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
400 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2016 /300 PM MDT MON JUL 18 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY COULD LEAD TO AFTERNOON HEAT
INDEX READINGS OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

GET YOUR WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL...AND CLIMATE INFORMATION AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE (ALL LOWERCASE)

TAYLOR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
946 PM MDT MON JUL 18 2016

NEZ056>058-069-190430-
CHASE NE-DEUEL NE-KEITH NE-PERKINS NE-
946 PM MDT MON JUL 18 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHASE...EASTERN DEUEL...
SOUTHWESTERN KEITH AND PERKINS COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM MDT...

AT 945 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF BARTON
TO VENANGO TO 17 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LAMAR...AND MOVING EAST AT 35
MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OGALLALA...IMPERIAL...GRANT...BIG SPRINGS...BRULE...MADRID...
VENANGO...LAMAR...ENDERS...CHAMPION...
ENDERS RESERVOIR STATE RECREATION AREA...BARTON...CHASE...
CHURCH GROVE CAMPGROUND...GOLDENEYE STATE WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA...
AREA A CAMPGROUND...CRETE...BRANDON...
CENTER DAM CAMPGROUND AND WILD HORSE SPRING.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 HIGHWAY 61 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 25 AND 86.
 INTERSTATE 80 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 100 AND 126.

LAT...LON 4035 10205 4100 10205 4101 10221 4119 10220
      4118 10206 4124 10201 4103 10151 4035 10143
TIME...MOT...LOC 0345Z 263DEG 32KT 4113 10229 4077 10205 4035 10212

ROBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1116 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1113 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 E NORTH PLATTE        41.13N 100.71W
07/18/2016  M55 MPH          LINCOLN            NE   ASOS

&&

MASEK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1131 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2016

NEZ036-037-059-190515-
LINCOLN NE-LOGAN NE-MCPHERSON NE-
1131 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MCPHERSON...LINCOLN
AND SOUTHWESTERN LOGAN COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 AM CDT...

AT 1131 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES SOUTH OF STAPLETON
TO NEAR MAXWELL TO NEAR DICKENS...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTH PLATTE...BRADY...MAXWELL...WELLFLEET...LAKE MALONEY STATE
RECREATION AREA...NORTH PLATTE
AIRPORT...DICKENS...SOMERSET...COTTONWOOD
CANYON STATE WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA...KEITH AND JEFFREY CANYON
STATE
WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 HIGHWAY 97 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 9.
 INTERSTATE 80 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 173 AND 206.
 HIGHWAY 83 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 56 AND 107.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4136 10026 4072 10025 4076 10122 4113 10084
      4149 10086
TIME...MOT...LOC 0431Z 272DEG 42KT 4134 10057 4110 10046 4085 10095

ROBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1216 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1214 AM     TSTM WND GST     8 SW CALLAWAY           41.21N 100.03W
07/19/2016  M72.00 MPH       CUSTER             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HOME WEATHER STATION REPORTED WIND GUST TO 72 MPH. WIND
            BLEW SEVERAL TREE BRANCHES DOWN.

&&

MASEK

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