Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
253 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 204 PM CDT Wed Jul 6 2016

Upper air pattern continues a suppressed ridge across the southern
conus with nearly zonal flow across the high plains. A trough/low is
moving east near the Montana/Canadian border. At the surface a low
was analyzed across northeast Wyoming with a warm front/stationary
boundary to the southeast across the panhandle of Nebraska then
curves east across southern Nebraska. A cold front trails from the
low to the southwest. Temps this afternoon under mostly sunny skies
have warmed into the mid 80s to the mid 90s, warmest to the
southwest of the boundary across southwest Nebraska.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Wed Jul 6 2016

Complex forecast tonight with a couple of area of concern for
thunderstorms. First is the low as it pushes towards the Black
Hills. Models in good agreement developing a complex near the hills
then tracking the complex to the east southeast. The main
uncertainty is how far to the south will the complex develop. At
this time it looks likely to impact northern Nebraska and the SPC
day 1 outlook update increase part of Nebraska and S Dakota into a
moderate risk for severe weather. With good CAPE and 0-6km bulk
shear of 50kts plus do not see a problem with storms becoming severe
this evening. Winds are a major concern with significant winds gusts
of 80 mph or higher possible.

Another area will be along the stalled boundary over the panhandle
as it drifts east. Models keep the activity more isolated and with
less moisture to work with this seems probable. Both hail and winds
will be concern with these storms.

Radar already showing returns to the north and west and expect this
activity to only grow over the late afternoon hours. Overnight, as
the main focus shifts east, activity should diminish. Models
continue to linger some activity post frontal across northern
Nebraska into tomorrow. Will include low pops however not having a
high confidence of the activity continuing. Would not be surprised
if the morning activity is really just stratus and little shower
activity as the better lift is contained to the north in the Dakotas.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Wed Jul 6 2016

Models in good agreement in mid and near term and have good
confidence in the forecast. Surface high pressure will build into
western Nebraska over night with clear skies and light and
variable winds on Thursday. Lows in the 50s and 60s. H5 ridge
builds back into western Nebraska on Friday as surface high
pressure moves east and southerly upslope flow begins. Highs in
the 80s. Slight chance pops retained through the evening from
southwest into northern Nebraska either side of a highway 61 line.
Heating of the day forcing at 700mb and weak low level jet to
combine for isolated to widely scattered precipitation. Saturday a
warm front will lift to the northeast over western Nebraska and
temperatures will rise back into the 90s. Isolated thunderstorms
along trough axis through the afternoon over the Nebraska
panhandle and spreading east over night as low level jet develops.
Sunday afternoon chances increase as upper closed low moves into
central Idaho and heights begin to fall over the northern plains.
Good moisture advection in southerly flow. Trough will focus
thunderstorms over the panhandle through the afternoon and moving
east followed by surface cold front Sunday night. Cooler Monday
and Tuesday with thunderstorm chances over eastern portions of the
forecast area as upper low moves northeast from central Idaho into
south central Canada. Highs around 90 on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Wed Jul 6 2016

Thunderstorms, some severe, expected to impact the region this
evening and overnight, especially across northern Nebraska and the
KVTN terminal. A complex of storms are expected to fire across the
Black Hills this afternoon then track E/SE into northern Nebraska.
Current timing for impact to KVTN will be 23z into 03z, however
this could be shifted an hour or two. Also could see some
thunderstorms along the dry line over western Nebraska which will
drift eastward. Models are in less agreement with coverage of
storms along the dry line. This would impact the KLBF terminal and
will include a VCTS due to lower confidence.

Activity pushes east overnight with VFR conditions across
southwestern Nebraska. Models develop some stratus in the wake of
the complex across northern Nebraska. Will include in the KVTN
forecast, however this will need to be monitored closely.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 204 PM CDT Wed Jul 6 2016

North Platte River at Lewellen dropped a little more this morning to
7.37 feet and have a higher confidence river will remain below the
minor flood stage of 7.5 feet. Still could see a slight rise
depending on evening rainfall, however forecast keeps level at or
below 7.4 feet. Thus the flood advisory was canceled in favor of a
river statement for elevated flows but no flooding.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Masek
SHORT TERM...Masek
LONG TERM...Power
AVIATION...Masek
HYDROLOGY...Masek

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
328 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-072030-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
328 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016 /228 PM MDT WED JUL 6 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE
RISK IS GREATEST ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM FROM VALENTINE TO
AINSWORTH AND ONEILL WHERE WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH MAY DEVELOP. HAIL
TWO INCHES OR LARGER IN DIAMETER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
SHERIDAN COUNTY. AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY FORM BETWEEN VALENTINE
AND GORDON.

EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE THREAT IN THIS AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY ISOLATED. THE RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

&&

GET YOUR WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL...AND CLIMATE INFORMATION AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE (ALL LOWERCASE)

MASEK

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
950 PM CDT WED JUL 06 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0928 PM     TORNADO          2 NW BRADY              41.04N 100.39W
07/06/2016                   LINCOLN            NE   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC ESTIMATED LOCATION.

&&

SJACOBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
951 PM CDT WED JUL 06 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0914 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 NNE NORTH PLATTE      41.19N 100.74W
07/06/2016  M69 MPH          LINCOLN            NE   MESONET

&&

SJACOBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1005 PM CDT WED JUL 06 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 PM     TSTM WND GST     BROKEN BOW              41.41N 99.64W
07/06/2016  M60 MPH          CUSTER             NE   ASOS

&&

SJACOBS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1006 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

NEZ071-070345-
FRONTIER NE-
1006 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN FRONTIER COUNTY UNTIL
1045 PM CDT...

AT 1006 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES NORTH OF INDIANOLA...OR 14 MILES NORTHEAST OF MCCOOK...MOVING
EAST AT 35 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STOCKVILLE...MEDICINE CREEK RESERVOIR STATE RECREATION AREA...
DANCING LEAF EARTH LODGE...WILLOW VIEW CAMPGROUND...ORAFINO...
FREEDOM AND QUICK.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 83 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 27 AND 40.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4055 10066 4056 9998 4044 9998 4043 10009
      4035 10010 4035 10067
TIME...MOT...LOC 0306Z 273DEG 29KT 4038 10046

BUTTLER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1007 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

NEZ038-070330-
CUSTER-
1007 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN CUSTER COUNTY...

AT 1006 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 7 MILES EAST OF
CALLAWAY... OR 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BROKEN BOW...MOVING EAST AT 55
MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BROKEN BOW...ANSLEY...MASON CITY...OCONTO...BERWYN...WESTERVILLE...
BLOCK HILL BASIN...BURR OAK...GAVIN SIDING...LODI...CUMRO...
BUCKEYE...
PRESSEY STATE WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA AND INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY
183 AND CUMRO ROAD.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 HIGHWAY 183 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 76 AND 98.
 HIGHWAY 2 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 275 AND 307.
 HIGHWAY 92 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 300 AND 308.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY CAN RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN NORTH PLATTE.

LAT...LON 4115 9992 4144 9981 4139 9920 4113 9920
      4107 9921
TIME...MOT...LOC 0306Z 277DEG 49KT 4126 9977

ET