Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
638 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 301 PM CDT Tue Jul 5 2016

Isolated to scattered showers with a few embedded thunderstorms have
been ongoing most of the day across the area. This has kept temps
cooler than originally expected due to the clouds, however in a few
locations where the sun was able to shine for a few hours temps
soared into the mid 90s (like OGA which last ob reported 96). A
surface low was analyzed across S Dakota with a warm front into Iowa
and a cold front trailing into Wyoming. Little change from yesterday
with the upper levels as generally zonal flow across the high
plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Tue Jul 5 2016

A couple of weak boundaries across the CWA late this afternoon will
be focus for some isolated/scattered thunderstorms. CAPE is good
however marginal shear. Storms will move quickly to the northeast.
More of a focus will be the an upper level disturbance as it drifts
across the area. The wave has already started to fire convection
across se Wyoming and ne Colorado. Meanwhile overnight the cold
front will drift across the area and stall to the south.

Models are expecting more sun in the wake of this evenings storms
with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s, warmest across sw zones. At
this time this looks good however was expected more sun today which
gives me less than normal confidence. Still going to see moisture
across the area and another reinforcing cold front will approach the
area. In addition should see another upper level disturbance.
Tomorrow the shear is a little stronger and continue to see good
afternoon instability. Good model consensus about storms firing
early across western S Dakota and pushing to the southeast with the
cold front. The question is the southwestward extent of the
development and the timing. High pops across n central and will
monitor for western Nebraska.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Tue Jul 5 2016

Jet lies along the US canadian border with mainly zonal flow
across the lower 48. Stationary boundary will lie across western
Nebraska on Wednesday with convection continuing into the evening
mainly over northern Nebraska as upper trough moves onto the
northern plains. Showers ending over north central zones Oneill
vicinity as we get on backside of upper trough. Highs Thursday and
Friday in the 80s as cooler air filters in behind the upper low.
Heat returns Saturday and Sunday as ridge builds in from the west.
Precipitation confined further west as it develops along the front
range of the Rockies and then moves east into more stable air and
diminishing. Stronger upper system moving into Idaho through the
weekend with increasing chances of precipitation through western
Nebraska through the beginning of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Tue Jul 5 2016

Thunderstorms...some of which may be strong or severe are the
primary concern going in the aviation forecast. The latest
convective allowing models indicate continued development of
storms across west central Nebraska. The latest guidance suggests
storms through KLBF between 01-03z. Variable wind gusts in excess
of 45kts are expected. At KVTN the convective threat is less
certain...so at this point will only carry VCTS and update if
needed. Otherwise additional storms are progged to impact much of
west central Nebraska once again late in the forecast period.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Masek
SHORT TERM...Masek
LONG TERM...Power
AVIATION...Jacobs

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
316 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-062030-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
316 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016 /216 PM MDT TUE JUL 5 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. MOSTLY ISOLATED STORM
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK
AREA...ALONG AND EAST OF A NORTH PLATTE TO ONEILL LINE. ELSEWHERE
A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS. LARGE HAIL AND WIND
DAMAGE ARE THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER INCREASES WEDNESDAY AND MORE ORGANIZED
STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. STORM COVERAGE COULD BECOME
SCATTERED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND THERE IS SOME TORNADO
RISK IN ADDITION TO WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL. STORM DEVELOPMENT
COULD COMMENCE DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA
AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST IN THE EVENING.

MOSTLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY
EAST OF VALENTINE AND BROKEN BOW. A FEW STRONG OR ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS COULD FORM. THE RISK IS LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND MOSTLY
ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
IS UNCERTAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

GET YOUR WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL...AND CLIMATE INFORMATION AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE (ALL LOWERCASE)

MASEK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
443 PM MDT TUE JUL 5 2016

NEZ022-035-056-057-052330-
GARDEN-KEITH-DEUEL-ARTHUR-
443 PM MDT TUE JUL 5 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN ARTHUR...
SOUTHEASTERN GARDEN...EASTERN DEUEL...WESTERN KEITH AND NORTHWESTERN
PERKINS COUNTIES...

AT 442 PM MDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF OSHKOSH TO NEAR JULESBURG...AND
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OSHKOSH...BIG SPRINGS...BRULE...LEWELLEN...BARTON...LEMOYNE...
INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 27 AND 9 MILE ROAD...BELMAR...
GOLDENEYE STATE WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA...
CLEAR CREEK STATE WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA...
ASH HOLLOW STATE HISTORICAL PARK...LAKE VIEW CAMPGROUND...
BLUEWATER BATTLEFIELD STATE HISTORICAL PARK...
OTTER CREEK CAMPGROUND...WINDLASS HILL...RUTHON...
EAGLE GULCH CAMPGROUND AND MEGEATH.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 HIGHWAY 92 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 115 AND 132.
 INTERSTATE 80 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 93 AND 121.

IF YOU ARE ON OR NEAR LAKE MCCONAUGHY...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND
MOVE INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE
OUT TO 15 MILES FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER... YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO
SAFE SHELTER NOW. DO NOT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4156 10235 4156 10180 4100 10180 4100 10195
      4101 10205 4100 10235
TIME...MOT...LOC 2242Z 267DEG 25KT 4150 10227 4105 10226

ET

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