Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
640 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Rain showers and thunderstorms are beginning to develop across north
central Nebraska along the dry line. Thunderstorms are anticipated
to continue developing through the afternoon. As thunderstorms
encounter a more unstable atmosphere as they move eastward,
thunderstorms will become severe. These storms will expand southward
over the early evening hours as the cold front approaches the region
from the west. The greatest threat with these storms will large hail
and strong winds. Several hours of severe storms are possible as the
line slowly progresses eastward.

Storms will move out of the area around midnight as the cold front
pushes across Nebraska and the Northern Plains. Behind the front,
light showers and possibly some light fog will be possible through
8am.

Tuesday will be much drier and cooler across central Nebraska as
surface high pressure starts to build into the region. High
temperatures will top out in the low 70s on Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Tuesday night through Thursday...a dry forecast is in place through
early Thursday aftn. Both the NAM and GFS show a dryline bulge
developing across Ncntl Neb late Thursday aftn with K indices near
or above 40C. MLcape rises to around 2000j/kg with shear increasing
to around 35-40kt when calculated using mixed layer and 450 mb winds.
This places the bulk richardson number around 40 supporting isolated
storms. The NAM and GFS develop some convection by 00z Thursday
evening.

A blend of the GFS...SREF and NAM models produces dew points in the
upper 50s ahead of the dry line. Bias correction lowers them to the
mid 50s. The GFS and NAM show precipitable water increasing to
between 1.00 and 1.25 inches along and east of Highway 83. This
suggests that moisture will briefly return to the Cntl Plains this
week. CONRAD indicates the cape is too low for cell regeneration so
pops are isolated and this consistent with the GFS which shows very
light QPF.

Otherwise the forecast revolves around temperatures. The new
guidance is producing lows in the upper 30s at Alliance which would
produce lows near 40 across the Wrn Sandhills. The guidance produces
highs in the lower 70s Wednesday with lower 80s Thursday. The
temperature forecast uses a blend of 4 guidance data sets plus bias
correction.

Thursday night through Monday...a cold front will sweep the fcst
area Friday. Little cooling occurs behind the front. The main
feature is dry air and Pacific high pressure which will spend the
next 4 days sinking slowly south through Cntl and Srn Plains.

A dry forecast is in place with high temperatures in the upper 70s
to lower 80s. Strong upper level ridging will be in place centered
over the Cntl Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

An active line of thunderstorms...some with large hail and 60 mph
winds...was moving east across western Nebraska from KANW to KIML.
The line was moving around 25kts to the east and will move into
central Nebraska through the late evening. MVFR conditions are
associated with the thunderstorms...otherwise VFR conditions.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Flooding along the North Platte River and main branch of the Platte
River will continue until further notice. Water levels are expected
to remain fairly steady over the next few days resulting in moderate
flooding to continue along the North Platte River at North Platte
and Lewellen. Minor flooding will also continue at Lisco along the
North Platte River and Brady along the main branch of the Platte
River. Although the South Platte river is not anticipated to flood
at this time, water levels will remain elevated at both Roscoe and
North Platte.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Power
HYDROLOGY...Kulik

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
446 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-312200-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
446 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016 /346 PM MDT MON MAY 30 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN
SEVERE THREATS TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WILL BE THREATS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY THOSE WITH OUTDOOR
INTERESTS.

MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTH PLATTE
RIVER AND MAIN STEM PLATTE RIVER THROUGH TONIGHT. ELEVATED RIVER
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER FROM ROSCOE TO
NORTH PLATTE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AT THIS TIME...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS IS LOW.

WATER RELEASES FROM RESERVOIRS IN WYOMING AND LAKE MCCONAUGHY
WILL MAINTAIN MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING INTO JUNE FROM LISCO TO
NORTH PLATTE. THE PLATTE RIVER WILL REMAIN ELEVATED NEAR BRADY
WITH MINOR FLOODING EXPECTED. THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER WILL CONTINUE
TO REMAIN ELEVATED INTO JUNE...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
FLOOD STAGE AT ROSCOE AND NORTH PLATTE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

GET YOUR WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL...AND CLIMATE INFORMATION AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE (ALL LOWERCASE)

POWER

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
632 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

NEZ058-059-069-070-310015-
CHASE NE-LINCOLN NE-HAYES NE-PERKINS NE-
632 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HAYES...CHASE...SOUTHEASTERN
KEITH...EASTERN PERKINS AND SOUTHWESTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES UNTIL 715
PM CDT/615 PM MDT/...

AT 632 PM CDT/532 PM MDT/...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTH OF
PAXTON TO 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CHAMPION...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
IMPERIAL...HAYES CENTER...WAUNETA...WALLACE...MADRID...ELSIE...DICKENS...
ENDERS...CHAMPION...ENDERS RESERVOIR STATE RECREATION AREA...HAMLET...
SOMERSET...MARENGO...CHURCH GROVE CAMPGROUND...HAYES CENTER STATE
WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA...GRAINTON...AREA A CAMPGROUND...CENTER DAM
CAMPGROUND AND WANAMAKER STATE WILDFIRE MANAGEMENT AREA.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 HIGHWAY 61 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 25 AND 56.
 HIGHWAY 83 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 65 AND 73.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT/900
PM MDT/ FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4035 10191 4101 10146 4101 10126 4102 10125
      4100 10068 4035 10105
TIME...MOT...LOC 2332Z 267DEG 39KT 4101 10140 4038 10184

MARTIN

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