Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
646 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Tonight and Wednesday...the models are in good agreement lifting a
h700mb warm front into Srn Neb tonight. Satellite suggests the front
is lifting through Nern Colo and Nwrn KS this aftn. The threat of
severe weather this evening hinges on storm development over Nern
Colo. The HRRR and RAP models suggest an isolated severe storm could
move east through Colo and into Swrn Neb. Perhaps of bigger concern
is the NAM is developing discrete convection across Swrn Neb this
aftn and this evening which could easily become severe if dew points
rise into the 60s...perhaps a stretch but a storm or two could
develop with dew points in the upper 50s.

Presumably...other convection will fire across the Panhandle this
evening and move east as advertised by the models. This activity
should move east and coalesce with the ongoing storm development
across Swrn Neb to form a tstm complex which sweeps east overnight.
The severity of this complex is uncertain as it could become outflow
dominant and more ordinary.

WPC has outlooked Swrn Neb for excessive rainfall tonight. This
would result from HP supercell development which is advertised by
the HRRR and NAM. It is also noted that the shear is expected to
weaken late this evening which would cause storms to
backbuild...split and cause multicell development. PWATs increase to
1.5 inches along and east of highway 83 in both the NAM and RAP
models. This about 200 percent of normal.

Quiet weather is expected Wednesday in the wake of the storm
activity tonight. Highs rise 75 to 85 and a weak area of Pacific
high pressure builds into the fcst area. This should produce light
northwest winds.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Thursday through Tuesday will remain active as shortwave
disturbances continue to be ejected northeast across the region.
meanwhile, a longwave trough will persist across the west coast,
as energy dives southeast from the Gulf of Alaska.

The highest chances will occur Thursday night, Friday and Friday
night. This will be due to an upper trough and closed low passing
Colorado Thursday night, then western Nebraska Friday and Friday
night. An additional threat for severe weather Thursday afternoon
and evening, as a surface low and warm front extends from nwrn
Kansas across central Nebraska. Another disturbance is forecast to
cross the region Memorial Day and Monday night for increased
chances for thunderstorms.

High temperatures Thursday in the mid 70s cool into the lower 70s
by Friday before rebounding back into the lower 80s Sunday. Low
temperatures remain fairly steady in the low to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 646 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Thunderstorms are expected to impact the KLBF and KVTN terminals
by 03z this evening. Wind gusts to 45 KTS, small hail and
visibilities down to 3SM are expected with thunderstorms. The main
thunderstorm threat is expected to end after 08z tonight. Beyond
08z, CIGS of 3500 FT AGL are expected through mid morning
Wednesday with clear skies thereafter.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 252 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

North Platte river...additional releases of 500 to 1000 cfs
from lake McConaughy are planned. This is a result of higher than
expected snow melt in the mountains feeding the North Platte river
and the Wyoming reservoir system. The MBRFC is preparing new
forecasts for the North Platte river. Higher river levels are
expected.

High river flows will continue on the South Platte river. The
combined flow of the North and South Platte rivers will continue to
produce flooding on the Platte river near Brady.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Buttler
HYDROLOGY...CDC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
320 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-252030-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
320 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016 /220 PM MDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. THE AREA OF GREATEST
CONCERN IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. STORM ACTIVITY WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS COLORADO AND MOVE TOWARD OR INTO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ALSO. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE ARE THE
THREAT ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.

OTHER STRONG OR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE ARE THE
THREAT.

LATE TONIGHT...STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA MAY
CONVERGE WITH ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA TO FORM A COMPLEX
OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. A FEW STORMS COULD BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...WIND
DAMAGE AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

RESERVOIR RELEASES ALONG THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER WILL MAINTAIN
MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING INTO JUNE FROM LISCO TO NORTH PLATTE.
THE PLATTE RIVER WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH THE RIVER NEAR BRADY TO
FLUCTUATE NEAR MINOR FLOOD STAGE. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR RIVER FORECASTS. THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE MINOR FLUCTUATIONS...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY
83. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...HOWEVER
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY...FOR NEARLY ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
LIKE WEDNESDAY...THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND WIND
DAMAGE...HOWEVER ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE
BEST TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES FRIDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY. THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

RESERVOIR RELEASES ALONG THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER WILL MAINTAIN
MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING INTO JUNE FROM LISCO TO LEWELLEN.
ADDITIONAL RELEASES FROM LAKE MCCONAUGHY WILL CAUSE THE NORTH
PLATTE RIVER AT NORTH PLATTE TO RISE HIGHER. THE PLATTE RIVER
WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH THE RIVER NEAR BRADY TO FLUCTUATE NEAR MINOR
FLOOD STAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR RIVER FORECASTS. THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE MINOR FLUCTUATIONS...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

&&

GET YOUR WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL...AND CLIMATE INFORMATION AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE (ALL LOWERCASE)

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