Severe Thunderstorm Warning 292, NWS North Platte, NE

317 
WWUS53 KLBF 052345
SVSLBF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
645 PM CDT MON SEP 5 2016

NEC063-085-060015-
/O.CON.KLBF.SV.W.0292.000000T0000Z-160906T0015Z/
HAYES NE-FRONTIER NE-
645 PM CDT MON SEP 5 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN HAYES AND WESTERN FRONTIER COUNTIES...

AT 645 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 15 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF CURTIS...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. EXPECT
         WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CURTIS...MAYWOOD...WILLOW VIEW CAMPGROUND...
BLUEGILL HAVEN CAMPGROUND...
QUICK AND RED WILLOW RESERVOIR STATE RECREATION AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4067 10087 4067 10046 4035 10056 4035 10082
TIME...MOT...LOC 2345Z 191DEG 26KT 4045 10068 

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

MASEK

648 
WWUS53 KLBF 052356
SVSLBF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
656 PM CDT MON SEP 5 2016

NEC063-085-060015-
/O.CON.KLBF.SV.W.0292.000000T0000Z-160906T0015Z/
HAYES NE-FRONTIER NE-
656 PM CDT MON SEP 5 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN HAYES AND WESTERN FRONTIER COUNTIES...

AT 656 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF CURTIS...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CURTIS...MAYWOOD...WILLOW VIEW CAMPGROUND...
BLUEGILL HAVEN CAMPGROUND...
QUICK AND RED WILLOW RESERVOIR STATE RECREATION AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4067 10079 4067 10046 4035 10056 4035 10082
TIME...MOT...LOC 2356Z 201DEG 26KT 4052 10063 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

MASEK

310 
WWUS53 KLBF 060004
SVSLBF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
704 PM CDT MON SEP 5 2016

NEC085-060013-
/O.CAN.KLBF.SV.W.0292.000000T0000Z-160906T0015Z/
HAYES NE-
704 PM CDT MON SEP 5 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN HAYES COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 4067 10064 4067 10046 4051 10051 4051 10069
TIME...MOT...LOC 0003Z 207DEG 29KT 4058 10058 

$$

NEC063-060015-
/O.CON.KLBF.SV.W.0292.000000T0000Z-160906T0015Z/
FRONTIER NE-
704 PM CDT MON SEP 5 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN FRONTIER COUNTY...

AT 703 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
CURTIS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CURTIS AND MAYWOOD. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4067 10064 4067 10046 4051 10051 4051 10069
TIME...MOT...LOC 0003Z 207DEG 29KT 4058 10058 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

MASEK

597 
WWUS53 KLBF 060016
SVSLBF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
716 PM CDT MON SEP 5 2016

NEC063-060026-
/O.EXP.KLBF.SV.W.0292.000000T0000Z-160906T0015Z/
FRONTIER NE-
716 PM CDT MON SEP 5 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN FRONTIER COUNTY
HAS EXPIRED...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. HOWEVER SMALL HAIL
IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4067 10064 4067 10046 4051 10051 4051 10069
TIME...MOT...LOC 0014Z 184DEG 27KT 4058 10058 

$$

MASEK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
625 PM CDT MON SEP 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Mon Sep 5 2016

Pesky stratus continues across far southwest and much of northern
Nebraska this afternoon. A cold front has slowed to a crawl this
afternoon and is analyzed from southwest Nebraska through central
Nebraska into southeast S Dakota. This frontal boundary is
expected to be the focus for thunderstorms, some severe, this
evening into the overnight period. The HRRR/RUC develop storms
across the far eastern CWA late this afternoon then lift the
activity to the northeast. Good shear combining with abundant low
level moisture and instability for some to become severe. The main
threat is hail and winds although if there are any outflow
boundaries which cause a localized backing of winds, there could
be a small window for a tornado threat.

Meanwhile a weak mid level disturbance crossing the rockies will
lift across the area with a chance for storms across the CWA this
evening into the overnight. These storms are likely to be elevated
and do not see as much of a severe potential, although could see
some hail. Final concern will be the stratus/fog. Persistence
looks to be a good forecast with northwest Neb to see the
development first and it should expand to the south and east
behind the front. Have included areas of fog in the forecast,
although a concern for showers to cause the fog bounce up and
down.

Tomorrow expect the stratus to persist through the day and limit
heating. Highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s for most locations,
however the front still across the far southeastern portions of
the CWA and highs could return to the 80s in the vicinity of the
boundary where there could be a little more sun.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Mon Sep 5 2016

The main concerns this period is a marginal risk for strong to
severe thunderstorms tomorrow night with the possibility of
locally heavy rain, and then temperatures going into the extended
period. SPC has roughly the southeast half of the forecast area
in a marginal risk area in the Day 2 Outlook.

Large scale pattern in the beginning of the period is similar to
the past couple of days with a upper level trough over the
Intermountain West and a ridge over the Upper Mississippi Valley
into the Lower Great Lakes. The pattern will undergo a change over
the two day period as the aforementioned trough slowly progresses
eastward into the upper Great Lakes; meanwhile, another weak
trough will move into the Northern Rockies and western Northern
Plains. Height rises will be occurring over western and north
central NE Wednesday night into Thursday as a zonal flow sets up
by Wednesday night in the 500 hPa pattern. An inverted trough and
associated frontal boundary is expected to be present roughly
from extreme northwest KS to central NE to west central IA
extending from a surface low in northeast CO.

The forecast remains similar to the inherited forecast with rain
showers and thunderstorms anticipated to be focused near/on the
trough and boundary late afternoon and evening Wednesday. Wherein,
favorable moisture is expected to combine within a corridor of
decent instability. Vertical wind shear, 0-6 km bulk, exceeding 40
kts will be supportive of supercells with respect to storm mode in
the beginning then it's expected to transition into a convective
system. Some uncertainty in the exact location of the boundary and
trough at this point, however, hail, strong winds, and possible
locally heavy rainfall appear possible. The latter as Tuesday
night will be in a favorable moist environment with high
precipitable water, forecast to exceed 1.5” across parts of the
forecast area, decent moisture transport, and supportive steering
flow orientation. Attention then turns to convection continuing
overnight as a possibility given the support of the low level jet
developing nearby and a decent short wave trough at 500 hPa moving
southwest-northeast tomorrow night.

Wednesday, the frontal boundary and associated trough will be
south and east of the forecast area with the boundary becoming
more diffuse. Another weak surface trough expected to extend north
over the NE Panhandle. Meanwhile, a 500 hPa shortwave will move
through the forecast area Wednesday providing large scale ascent.
Wherein, the eastern half could see additional activity. The
current thinking though is that the best chances for precipitation
will be mainly across the eastern-third of the forecast area
during the afternoon. Largely dry conditions are then anticipated
Wednesday night through Thursday. Looking ahead, the next period
with increased chances for showers and thunderstorms will be in
the Thursday Night-Friday time period when the next disturbance
arrives aloft. A cold front is expected to push through and
provide lift moving about northwest to southeast late Thursday
into Friday. This will result in Friday being the coolest day as
cooler air fills in behind with highs forecast in the lower to mid
70s, except for mid to upper 70s in the extreme south and
southeast portions of the forecast area. Lows the following
morning/Friday night are expected to read in the mid to upper 40s,
except lower 40s in portions of western NE. Thereafter, dry
conditions are expected this weekend. Beginning Sunday, a long
wave trough begins to drop into the western CONUS, reaching the
Intermountain West early Monday with southwest flow prevailing
across western and north central NE again Monday with it the
possibility of increased chances of precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Mon Sep 5 2016

The main focus through Tuesday afternoon is a cold front draped
across western Nebraska. As of 06/00z, the front stretches
generally from KONL to KBBW to KOGA and is nearly stationary. Isolated
to scattered thunderstorms are possible during the evening and
night hours, tapering off after 06/06z. Ahead of the front in
southwest and central Nebraska, some storms may be strong or
severe, capable of producing erratic gusty winds, hail, and heavy
rain which may lower visby. Behind the front across northern
Nebraska, light winds and remnant moisture will likely lead to a
thick stratus deck and potentially fog overnight. The stratus may
not lift until mid to late Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Masek LONG TERM...ET AVIATION...Masek
AVIATION...Snively

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
353 PM CDT MON SEP 5 2016

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-062100-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
353 PM CDT MON SEP 5 2016 /253 PM MDT MON SEP 5 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG A STALLING COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN IS EAST
OF A LINE FROM IMPERIAL TO VALENTINE LINE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

OVERNIGHT FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1 MILE WILL
BE ALONG AND WEST OF A NORTH PLATTE TO AINSWORTH LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
EAST OF A LINE FROM OSHKOSH TO AINSWORTH. STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING INTO
FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE SEVERE THREAT IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF A
BROKEN BOW TO ONEILL LINE.

&&

GET YOUR WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL...AND CLIMATE INFORMATION AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE (ALL LOWERCASE)

MASEK