Heat Advisory 4, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
112 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016

Morning analysis has upper level ridge dominating the plains. A
trough off the pac NW coast with another one over New England and
the mid Atlantic. Clear skies with generally light winds, however
temps remain very mild due to the thermal ridge over the region. 3
am observations ranging from the mid 60s to the upper 70s. a trough
is positioned from a low in S Dakota to the sw towards the front
range. A cold front is still to the west...across the Rockies.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016

Eyes on the afternoon/evening thunderstorms expected across the
area. The SPC has a marginal risk which seems to be a good starting
point. CAPE values grow to 3k to 4k plus j/kg. Sheer is a little
weak with 10 to 20 kts. PWATS greater than 1.25 inches for the late
afternoon and evening hours...mainly eastern CWA. So heavy rain will
be possible with any of the stronger thunderstorms. Storm motions is
generally slow around 10kts or less so the heavy rain will likely be
the primary threat, however hail and gusty winds will also be
possible.

The thunderstorm threat will continue into the overnight, however
with the loss of heating think coverage will diminish or disappear.
Behind the trough yet ahead of the cold front along with a low level
jet will continue to bring the chance for thunderstorms. Temps
tonight will once again be mild in the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016

A strong area of upper level high pressure continues to dominate the
weather across western and north central Nebraska, as well as much
of the central and southern plains and desert southwest. Dry and
very warm conditions will continue through the weekend. The warmest
day will be Sunday, when a thermal ridge will develop across the
area ahead of a southbound cold front across the Dakotas. Generally
will see 90 to 95 degrees for highs Saturday, warming to 92 to 98
degrees Sunday. The exception Sunday will be across far northwest
Nebraska, where the cold front moving in will keep it a tad cooler
in the upper 80s. As far as thunderstorm chances along the cold
front Sunday afternoon, very slim to no chance as extremely warm
midlevel temperatures should keep any development capped. The better
chance for a few storms will be across north central Nebraska Sunday
night. These would be post frontal and develop as mid level
temperatures begin to cool some.

Monday expect a strong Canadian shortwave to drive the cold front
south through the area into Kansas. This will bring some temporary
relief from the heat. By Tuesday and especially Wednesday and
Thursday the upper level ridge aloft will expand north once again,
with highs likely back into the 90s by Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016

The main aviation concern for this afternoon and evening will be
the potential for thunderstorm development. At this time, still
expecting showers and thunderstorms to develop around 6pm at both
KVTN and KLBF. Timing of the thunderstorms is still a little
uncertain and is hard to pinpoint an exact time that they will
impact each airport. Best guess is between 6pm and 11pm. This will
likely have to be refined as the evening progresses. VFR conditions
return for the remainder of the TAF period after thunderstorms move
off and dissipate.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016

Little change upstream of Lake McConaughy with Lewellen still in
minor flooding. Releases diminished slightly yesterday from Lake
McConaughy will cause a slight lowering down stream. The NP river at
North Platte is expected to fall from 6.8 feet to 6.7 feet by
tonight however this does not change the river level at moderate
flooding. Else where on the Platte River system, elevated flows
however no additional flooding at this time. Will have to monitor
locally heavy rainfall with evening storms as a slight bump up would
be possible pending heavy rain in the basin.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Masek
SHORT TERM...Masek
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Kulik
HYDROLOGY...Masek

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
504 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-181015-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
504 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016 /404 AM MDT FRI JUN 17 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. THE ABOVE NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
AS WELL...SO HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 WILL BE
COMMON THIS WEEKEND.

MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTH PLATTE
RIVER FROM LEWELLEN TO NORTH PLATTE. ELEVATED RIVER LEVELS REMAIN
ON THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER FROM ROSCOE TO NORTH PLATTE AND THE
PLATTE RIVER NEAR BRADY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO NORTHERN NEBRASKA SUNDAY EVENING
INTO MONDAY AS A FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS.

THE ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL...SO HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID
AND UPPER 90S WILL BE COMMON THIS WEEKEND.

MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTH PLATTE
RIVER FROM LEWELLEN TO NORTH PLATTE. ELEVATED RIVER LEVELS REMAIN
ON THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER FROM ROSCOE TO NORTH PLATTE AND THE
PLATTE RIVER NEAR BRADY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

&&

GET YOUR WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL...AND CLIMATE INFORMATION AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE (ALL LOWERCASE)

MASEK