Special Weather Statement, NWS Key West, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
220 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST AREA. SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE CLOUDY. WINDS OVER
LAND ARE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH NEAR 10 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON
AVERAGE...ARE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN ANTICYCLONE WILL BE
CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL AMPLIFY OVER
THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN ALL
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY
IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. NEAR RECORD WARM MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE DAILY RECORD FOR WARMEST
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE EVER MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON MARCH 27TH IS 78
DEGREES...INITIALLY SET IN 1956 AND LAST OBSERVED IN 1994.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD DOWN THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BEFORE STALLING IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FLORIDA KEYS MONDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE SERVICE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY. AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASED FOR THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED PRESENCE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BREEZES WILL BECOME GENTLE ON ALL KEYS
COASTAL WATERS TODAY. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES EXPECTED
TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. SUSTAINED EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE
FLORIDA STRAITS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. NO ADVISORIES OR
CAUTIONARY HEADLINES EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
EPISODES OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS
EARLY THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRAVERSE THE AREA.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GENTLE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...VEERING SOUTHERLY
AFTER SUNRISE. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE THROUGH 25/12Z...WITH
DECREASING CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER THEREAFTER. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEY WEST WEATHER HISTORY...BACK IN THE YEAR
1889...THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL OF 1.42" WAS RECORDED. THE LAST TIME
MORE THAN ONE INCH OF RAIN FELL AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
WAS BACK ON FEBRUARY 1ST 2016...WHEN COINCIDENTALLY 1.42 INCHES OF
RAINFALL WAS ALSO RECORDED. RAINFALL RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  81 75 85 77 / 10 - 10 20
MARATHON  84 76 86 77 / 10 - 10 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....FLING

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
541 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016

FLZ076>078-GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075-261000-
MONROE UPPER KEYS-MONROE MIDDLE KEYS-MONROE LOWER KEYS-
FLORIDA BAY INCLUDING BARNES SOUND, BLACKWATER SOUND, AND
BUTTONWOOD SOUND-
BAYSIDE AND GULF SIDE FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE-
GULF WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE 20 TO 60 NM OUT
AND BEYOND 5 FATHOMS-
GULF OF MEXICO INCLUDING DRY TORTUGAS AND REBECCA SHOAL CHANNEL-
GULF OF MEXICO FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO HALFMOON
SHOAL OUT TO 5 FATHOMS-
HAWK CHANNEL FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT TO THE REEF-
HAWK CHANNEL FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE OUT
TO THE REEF-
HAWK CHANNEL FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO HALFMOON SHOAL
OUT TO THE REEF-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO SOUTH OF
HALFMOON SHOAL OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM HALFMOON SHOAL TO 20 NM WEST OF DRY
TORTUGAS OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO SOUTH OF
HALFMOON SHOAL 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM HALFMOON SHOAL TO 20 NM WEST OF DRY
TORTUGAS 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
541 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE FLORIDA KEYS...AS WELL AS
NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS SURROUNDING THE ISLAND CHAIN THIS
MORNING. THE PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS WILL BE CLOUD TO SURFACE
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

BS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
548 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016

FLZ076-251045-
MONROE UPPER KEYS FL-
548 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING FOR THE
UPPER KEYS IN MONROE COUNTY UNTIL 645 AM EDT...

AT 544 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A CLUSTER OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR JEWFISH CREEK BRIDGE...MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT
20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... KEY LARGO...JEWFISH CREEK
BRIDGE...ROUTE 1/CARD SOUND...OCEAN REEF AND NORTH KEY LARGO.

THIS INCLUDES US 1 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 102 AND 112.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
KEY WEST DIRECTLY AT 3 0 5...2 9 5...1 3 1 6...EXTENSION 3.

LAT...LON 2518 8031 2510 8045 2516 8050 2519 8048
      2524 8050 2523 8049 2524 8048 2523 8047
      2524 8047 2525 8045 2526 8045 2526 8044
      2525 8044 2527 8043 2523 8038 2529 8039
      2529 8032 2535 8026 2534 8026 2531 8024
TIME...MOT...LOC 0944Z 231DEG 18KT 2522 8045

FLING