Coastal Flood Statement 18, NWS Key West, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
300 PM EST Thu Nov 17 2016

.DISCUSSION...A deep and well stacked anticyclone persists over the
southeastern United States, supporting a 1020 mb surface high
nestled east of the Appalachians. Northeast winds average 13 to 18
knots at the available marine observation platforms. Temperatures
are in the upper 70s along the island chain, with dewpoints in the
mid 60s. Skies are mostly sunny and the radar is nearly echo free. A
few sprinkles persist across the distant Straits of Florida.

.FORECAST...High pressure will persist across the eastern United
States tonight through Friday night. A reinforcing continental high
pressure system will spill southeast across the United States
Saturday through Sunday. Boundary layer parcels will remain
continental in origin, beneath significant inhibition. Rain chances
will remain nil. Fresh northeast to east breezes will decrease and
back to the north on Saturday, only to freshen out of the northeast
Saturday night and Sunday. Fresh northeast to east breezes will
persist Sunday night through Thanksgiving Day. Cool, breezy, and less
humid conditions will persist through the forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for The Straits of
Florida and Hawk Channel. A "Small Craft Should Exercise Caution"
headline is appended to forecasts for Florida Bay and the extreme
southeastern Gulf of Mexico. A high pressure system will expand and
intensify over the eastern United States tonight through Friday
night, resulting in fresh northeasterly breezes across Florida Keys
coastal waters. A weak cold front will approach the area Saturday and
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR will continue through the next 24 hrs clouds on the
increase out of the east. Occasional CIGS will be possible around 4-5
kft. NE gentle to moderate breezes will continue with gusts near 20
kts during daylight.

&&

.CLIMATE...The low temperature at Key West International Airport has
not fallen below 70 degrees since May 8th. The low temperature this
morning fell to 70, close, but not into the 60s. The next chance to
fall below 70 degrees will be Monday morning. Temperature records in
Key West data back to 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Friday for GMZ042>044-
     052>055-072>075.

&&

Public/Marine/Fire...CLR
Aviation/Nowcasts....MCLOVIN
Data Collection......BWC

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
453 AM EST THU NOV 17 2016

FLZ076>078-GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075-181000-
MONROE UPPER KEYS-MONROE MIDDLE KEYS-MONROE LOWER KEYS-
FLORIDA BAY INCLUDING BARNES SOUND, BLACKWATER SOUND, AND
BUTTONWOOD SOUND-
BAYSIDE AND GULF SIDE FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE-
GULF WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE 20 TO 60 NM OUT
AND BEYOND 5 FATHOMS-
GULF OF MEXICO INCLUDING DRY TORTUGAS AND REBECCA SHOAL CHANNEL-
GULF OF MEXICO FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO HALFMOON
SHOAL OUT TO 5 FATHOMS-
HAWK CHANNEL FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT TO THE REEF-
HAWK CHANNEL FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE OUT
TO THE REEF-
HAWK CHANNEL FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO HALFMOON SHOAL
OUT TO THE REEF-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO SOUTH OF
HALFMOON SHOAL OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM HALFMOON SHOAL TO 20 NM WEST OF DRY
TORTUGAS OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO SOUTH OF
HALFMOON SHOAL 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM HALFMOON SHOAL TO 20 NM WEST OF DRY
TORTUGAS 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
453 AM EST THU NOV 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR HAWK CHANNEL AND THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA...WHERE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 20 KNOTS AND SEAS UP
TO 7 FEET WILL BUILD IN THE GULF STREAM.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY WILL BE REQUIRED AGAIN FOR HAWK
CHANNEL AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL
WATERS ZONES FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

KASPER