Coastal Flood Statement 17, NWS Key West, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
241 PM EST Wed Nov 16 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Sunshine covers the Florida Keys this afternoon, however a narrow
confluent zone with a touch of moisture is resulting in scattered
cumulus with a few very light rain showers in the Straits offshore
the upper Keys. North to northeast winds have remainded gusty
especially over the lower Keys, and while sustained winds have only
recently picked up along the upper Keys reef, the western Straits and
Gulf waters northwest of Key West have seen some of the strongest
winds thus far...averaging near 20 knots.

The deep east coast trough's 500 mb axis will swing over the Florida
Keys this evening, however large-scale descent is well underway with
cool air advection above the surface rapidly becoming neutral. That
said, temperatures falling into the lower 60s over the Mainland next
to lower to mid 70s Bay temperatures may result in a resurgence of
breezy conditions late tonight, along with cooler temperatures in the
mid to upper 60s. Dry weather is expected deep ridging and strong
surface high pressure across the eastern United States with moderate
to fresh northeast breezes.

By Friday night, shallow Atlantic moisture is expected to return
albeit with descent as an upper jet entrance will be poorly
positioned, southeast of the Keys. An increase in cloud cover under
sub-850 mb inversion appears likely...but slight rain chances for a
stray shower appear to await late Friday night.

The next decaying frontal boundary, weak and with no appreciable
increase in moisture depth or any convergence in advance, appears to
pass through Sunday with little if any change in airmass. Northeast
breezes may once again freshen early next week. Some periods of
dryness, perhaps eventually warranting removing of a few 12-hour
periods of slight rain chance may be possible amid the fast zonal
upper flow before the next boundary approaches towards later next
week.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories are likely to be hoisted this afternoon for
the Florida Straits and Hawk Channel, with small craft urged to
exercise caution elsewhere. High pressure will continue to expand
overnight and through Friday with fresh northeast breezes. A relative
lull is possible by Saturday before high pressure rebuilds and
freshens northeast winds once again early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR and dry conditions continue for EYW & MTH for at least the next
24 hrs. Expect northerly moderate breezes with fresh gusts near 25
kts during daylight hours. Only gentle breezes are likely after
sunset.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this date in Florida Keys weather history, in 1943, the daily
record rainfall of 5.59 inches was recorded at Key West.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  69  78  71  79 / -  -  -  -
Marathon  68  79  71  80 / -  -  -  -

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.

&&

Public/Marine/Fire...JR
Aviation/Nowcasts....mclovin
Data Collection......Vickery

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
600 AM EST WED NOV 16 2016

FLZ076>078-GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075-171100-
MONROE UPPER KEYS-MONROE MIDDLE KEYS-MONROE LOWER KEYS-
FLORIDA BAY INCLUDING BARNES SOUND, BLACKWATER SOUND, AND
BUTTONWOOD SOUND-
BAYSIDE AND GULF SIDE FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE-
GULF WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE 20 TO 60 NM OUT
AND BEYOND 5 FATHOMS-
GULF OF MEXICO INCLUDING DRY TORTUGAS AND REBECCA SHOAL CHANNEL-
GULF OF MEXICO FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO HALFMOON
SHOAL OUT TO 5 FATHOMS-
HAWK CHANNEL FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT TO THE REEF-
HAWK CHANNEL FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE OUT
TO THE REEF-
HAWK CHANNEL FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO HALFMOON SHOAL
OUT TO THE REEF-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO SOUTH OF
HALFMOON SHOAL OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM HALFMOON SHOAL TO 20 NM WEST OF DRY
TORTUGAS OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO SOUTH OF
HALFMOON SHOAL 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM HALFMOON SHOAL TO 20 NM WEST OF DRY
TORTUGAS 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
600 AM EST WED NOV 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR HAWK CHANNEL AND THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AS NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO
NEAR 20 KNOTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL
WATERS ZONES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND AGAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

KASPER