Coastal Flood Statement 10, NWS Key West, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1026 AM EDT Sat Oct 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

A large area of light to moderate rain and showers, accompanied by a
few thunderstorms, is maintaining itself in the Atlantic waters south
and southwest of the Lower Keys. Additional showers are skirting the
Keys island chain and reaching even further into Florida Bay and the
adjacent Gulf waters. With a stiff east wind under mostly cloudy
skies, temperatures along the island chain are in the middle to upper
70s.

The early morning local sounding shows the strong northeast to east
breezes extend to almost 15000 feet. The column is quite moist to
about 8000 feet with a shallow somewhat drier layer just above that,
and then deep moisture extending above that through the troposphere.
The best mid to upper level energy is deflected to our northwest and
north. However, a measure of confluence is expected through the
lowest layers through the balance of today and into tonight. For
today, any pocket of showers that develops upstream (to our east)
will have the potential to pull through the island chain. A few
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out of the short term either. The
latest HRRR for the local area is showing such a scenario,
highlighting the 18z through 21z window for the highest probability
of rain along the island chain, and then another episode from sunset
into tonight. At this time, do not plan to update the morning zone
forecast which has the sensible weather elements advertised well.

&&

.MARINE...
Little if any adjustments are expected on the late morning coastal
waters update. Expect strong northeast to east breezes to continue
today, and only easing a few knots tonight through Sunday. Small
craft advisory headlines will continue for all marine zone
surrounding the Florida Keys.

&&

.AVIATION...
Numerous showers will impact the terminals through the period
resulting in frequent reduced visibilities to 4-6 NM. Isolated
thunderstorms are expected mainly from mid afternoon through
tonight. Brief MVFR ceilings, heavy downpours, and wind gusts over
30 knots are possible in the heavier activity. East winds 12-15
knots with gusts 20-25 knots are expected outside of thunderstorm
activity.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

Public/Marine/Fire...04
Aviation/Nowcasts....MM
Data Collection......Rizzo

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
715 AM EDT SAT OCT 29 2016

FLZ076>078-GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075-301100-
MONROE UPPER KEYS-MONROE MIDDLE KEYS-MONROE LOWER KEYS-
FLORIDA BAY INCLUDING BARNES SOUND, BLACKWATER SOUND, AND
BUTTONWOOD SOUND-
BAYSIDE AND GULF SIDE FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE-
GULF WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE 20 TO 60 NM OUT
AND BEYOND 5 FATHOMS-
GULF OF MEXICO INCLUDING DRY TORTUGAS AND REBECCA SHOAL CHANNEL-
GULF OF MEXICO FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO HALFMOON
SHOAL OUT TO 5 FATHOMS-
HAWK CHANNEL FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT TO THE REEF-
HAWK CHANNEL FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE OUT
TO THE REEF-
HAWK CHANNEL FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO HALFMOON SHOAL
OUT TO THE REEF-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO SOUTH OF
HALFMOON SHOAL OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM HALFMOON SHOAL TO 20 NM WEST OF DRY
TORTUGAS OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO SOUTH OF
HALFMOON SHOAL 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM HALFMOON SHOAL TO 20 NM WEST OF DRY
TORTUGAS 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
715 AM EDT SAT OCT 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS DUE
TO SUSTAINED NORTHEAST TO EAST SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS. SEAS
OF 9 TO 12 FEET WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND UP
TO 8 FEET ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FLORIDA KEYS...AS WELL
AS OVER THE SURROUNDING NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS. THE PRIMARY
THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS WILL BE CLOUD TO SURFACE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL
WATERS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FLORIDA KEYS...AS WELL
AS OVER THE SURROUNDING NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS SUNDAY. THE
PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS WILL BE CLOUD TO SURFACE LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.