Special Weather Statement, NWS JSJ

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service San Juan PR
1155 AM AST Tue Nov 8 2016

.UPDATE...No major changes made to inherited forecast package at
this time. Break in clouds this morning along with local and
diurnal effects, and instability aloft will lead to afternoon
convection across much of the island under the presently moist and
unstable environment. Some of the activity will be locally enhanced
and will lead to development of strong thunderstorms and areas of
locally heavy rainfall in isolated areas. The light winds and
low to mid level steering flow suggests the interior and north
and northeast sections of PR including the San Juan metro will
likely experience periods of showers and thunderstorms activity.
Urban and small stream flooding will remain possible at least
until the early evening hours.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...No sig change to previous AVN discussion.
Areas of SHRA/isold TSRA will cont across the local flying area
and en route btw islands. Aftn convection still expected to
develop across over the central mountain range and northern half
of PR to produce periods of SHRA/TSRA with brief MVFR/psbl IFR
conds til at least 08/22z in and around TJSJ/TJMZ/TJPS/TJBQ/TIST.
Isold SHRA or TSRA ALSO psbl vcty TISX.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...Seas up to 5 feet and winds up to 10 knots are
expected over the coastal waters today. However, increasing Seas
is forecast by Wednesday as a northerly swell generated for a low
pressure system over the northwest Atlantic will invade and spread
across the Atlantic waters and local passages. In addition winds
will gradually increase and become more easterly, surface high
pressure ridge will build across southwest Atlantic north of the
region beginning on Wednesday. These expected conditions will
lead to hazardous seas beginning on Wednesday and continuing
though at least Thursday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 538 AM AST Tue Nov 8 2016/

SYNOPSIS...Upper level trough will continue affecting the local
area through Wednesday. Upper level ridge will build across the
area Thursday. Another trough will approach the local area Friday
and Saturday.

DISCUSSION...Another active day is in store for Puerto Rico,
mainly this afternoon. An upper level trough continues across the
local area. This trough is producing scattered to numerous showers
with thunderstorms across the local waters. For this afternoon,
daytime heating and local effects will combine with favorable
upper level atmospheric conditions (the trough) to produce
scattered to numerous showers with thunderstorms across most of
the area. Due to light winds at the surface, some urban flooding
can be expected.

This trough is expected to move away from the area Thursday, which
will lead to a decrease in shower activity across the area.
However, this relatively drier air will not last for too long. For
Friday, another mid to upper level perturbation is expected to
approach the local area from the east. As a result, periods of
showers and thunderstorms can be expected for Friday and Saturday
afternoon.

AVIATION...Unstable/humid conds continues. SHRA expected across
TIST/TISX/TNCM/TKPK. SHRA/TSRA are expected to increase late in the
morning into the afternoon over mainland PR/USVI. Some of this SHRA
can produce brief MVFR or even IFR conditions between 08/16-22z at
TJSJ/TJMZ/TJPS/ TJBQ/TIST. Across the rest of the local flying area
VCTS/VCSH are expected. Winds will continue very light but mostly
from the east, increasing at around 10 knots with higher gusts and
sea breeze variations after 08/13Z.

MARINE...Seas up to 5 feet and winds up to 10 knots are expected
over the coastal waters. Moderate risk of rip current are expected
along the north facing beaches of Puerto Rico and Saint Thomas in
the U.S. Virgin Islands.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  85  76  87  78 /  40  30  30  40
STT  87  77  87  78 /  30  30  30  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...VI...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 2 PM AST Thursday
     for Atlantic Waters of Puerto Rico and USVI from 10 NM to
     19.5N-Coastal Waters of Northern Puerto Rico out 10 NM-Mona
     Passage Southward to 17N.

&&

09/13

PERSPECTIVAS SOBRE CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS DEL TIEMPO
SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
125 PM AST MARTES 8 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2016

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-091000-
SAN JUAN Y VECINDAD-NORESTE-SURESTE-
ESTE INTERIOR-NORTE CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE Y VECINDAD-
NOROESTE-OESTE INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ Y VECINDAD-SUROESTE-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
AGUAS COSTERAS Y MAR AFUERA DEL ATLANTICO Y DEL CARIBE-
125 PM AST MARTES 8 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2016

ESTA PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO PELIGROSAS ES PARA
PUERTO RICO Y LAS AGUAS COSTERAS ADYACENTES DEL ATLANTICO.

.DIA UNO...HOY Y ESTA NOCHE

.TRONADAS...EXISTE UNA PROBABILIDAD DE TRONADAS CON LLUVIAS
FUERTES Y VIENTOS EN RAFAGAS BREVES ESTA TARDE A TRAVES DE GRAN
PARTE DE LA ISLA DEBIDO A VIENTOS LEVES Y VARIABLES.

.INUNDACIONES...LLUVIAS FUERTES PODRIAN RESULTAR EN INUNDACIONES
URBANAS Y DE RIACHUELO A TRAVES DE SECTORES DEL ESTE DE PUERTO RICO.

.OLAS...OLEAJE HASTA 5 PIES SE ANTICIPA A TRAVES DE LAS AGUAS MAR
AFUERA DEL ATLANTICO.

.CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS...EXISTE UN RIESGO MODERADO DE CORRIENTES
SUBMARINAS PARA LAS PLAYAS DEL NORTE DE CULEBRA, OESTE Y NORTE DE
PUERTO RICO.

.DIAS DOS HASTA SIETE...MIERCOLES A LUNES

UN PATRON DE TIEMPO LLUVIOSO E INESTABLE SE ESPERA A TRAVES DEL
AREA LOCAL HASTA POR LO MENOS MEDIADOS DE SEMANA. LUEGO, PULSOS
DE HUMEDAD EN LOS NIVELES BAJOS SE MOVERAN A TRAVES DE LA
REGION CADA DIA. UNA MAREJADA DEL NORTE AFECTARA LAS AGUAS DEL
ATLANTICO Y LOS PASAJES MANANA. ESTO RESULTARA EN GRANDES OLAS
ROMPIENTES A LO LARGO DE LAS COSTAS DEL ATLANTICO DE LAS
ISLAS...CREANDO CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS PELIGROSAS Y RESACAS
FUERTES QUE PODRIAN AMENAZAR LA VIDA.

.COMUNICADO SOBRE INFORMACION REPORTADA POR OBSERVADORES...

NO SE ANTICIPA ACTIVACION AMPLIA DE OBSERVADORES, SIN EMBARGO SE
INVITA A LOS OBSERVADORES A REPORTAR INUNDACIONES, TROMBAS MARINAS,
Y CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS AL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA EN SAN
JUAN.

AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-091000-
SAN TOMAS SAN JOHN E ISLAS ADYACENTES-SANTA CRUZ-
AGUAS CERCA DE LA COSTA DEL ATLANTICO Y AGUAS COSTERAS ADYACENTES
DEL CARIBE-
125 PM AST MARTES 8 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2016

ESTA PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS DEL TIEMPO ES PARA
LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS Y LAS AGUAS COSTERAS ADYACENTES.

.DIA UNO...HOY Y ESTA NOCHE

.TRONADAS...EXISTE UNA PROBABILIDAD DE TRONADAS CON LLUVIAS
FUERTES Y VIENTOS BREVES EN RAFAGAS A TRAVES DE LAS ISLAS LOCALES.

.INUNDACIONES...LLUVIAS FUERTES PODRIAN RESULTAR EN INUNDACIONES
URBANAS Y DE RIACHUELOS.

.OLAS...OLEAJE HASTA 5 PIES SE ANTICIPA A TRAVES DE LAS AGUAS MAR
AFUERA DEL ATLANTICO.

.CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS...EXISTE UN RIESGO MODERADO DE CORRIENTES
SUBMARINAS PARA LAS PLAYAS A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA NORTE DE SAN
THOMAS.

.DIAS DOS HASTA SIETE...MIERCOLES A LUNES

UN PATRON DE TIEMPO LLUVIOSO E INESTABLE SE ESPERA A TRAVES DEL
AREA LOCAL HASTA POR LO MENOS MEDIADOS DE SEMANA. LUEGO, PULSOS
DE HUMEDAD EN LOS NIVELES BAJOS SE MOVERAN A TRAVES DE LA
REGION CADA DIA. UNA MAREJADA DEL NORTE AFECTARA LAS AGUAS DEL
ATLANTICO Y LOS PASAJES MANANA. ESTO RESULTARA EN GRANDES OLAS
ROMPIENTES A LO LARGO DE LAS COSTAS DEL ATLANTICO DE LAS
ISLAS...CREANDO CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS PELIGROSAS Y RESACAS
FUERTES QUE PODRIAN AMENAZAR LA VIDA.

.COMUNICADO SOBRE INFORMACION REPORTADA POR OBSERVADORES...

NO SE ANTICIPA ACTIVACION AMPLIA DE OBSERVADORES, SIN EMBARGO SE
INVITA A LOS OBSERVADORES A REPORTAR INUNDACIONES, TROMBAS MARINAS,
Y CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS AL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA EN SAN
JUAN.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
146 PM AST TUE NOV 8 2016

PRZ001-005-006-081915-
NORTH CENTRAL-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-CENTRAL INTERIOR-
146 PM AST TUE NOV 8 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SAN JUAN...TOA ALTA...VEGA
BAJA...CATANO...DORADO...TOA BAJA...NARANJITO...GUAYNABO...COROZAL...
VEGA ALTA...BAYAMON AND MOROVIS MUNICIPALITIES...

AT 140 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS QUICKLY
REDEVELOPING OVER THESE MUNICIPALITIES. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORM
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THESE MUNICIPALITIES AT LEAST UNTIL AROUND
3:15 PM AST. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL  AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING ALSO OCCURRING FREQUENTLY WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS AND
WILL LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM.
SEEK A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SAN JUAN...COROZAL...CATANO...VEGA BAJA...TOA ALTA...VEGA ALTA...
SABANA SECA...TOA BAJA...BAYAMON...DORADO...NARANJITO...GUAYNABO...
MOROVIS...LEVITTOWN...MIRANDA...GALATEO...PAJAROS...
CANDELARIA ARENAS...SAN JOSE AND CAMPANILLA.

LAT...LON 1847 6629 1848 6626 1846 6621 1848 6618
      1845 6617 1845 6615 1847 6614 1843 6611
      1845 6609 1846 6611 1845 6605 1829 6622
      1832 6640 1849 6643 1849 6640
TIME...MOT...LOC 1740Z 240DEG 0KT 1840 6627

RAM/DS/AC