Special Weather Statement, NWS JSJ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
946 PM AST Mon Oct 17 2016

.DISCUSSION...A line of showers and thunderstorms moved across the
local caribbean waters affecting portions of the southern coast of
Puerto Rico. For the rest of tonight...showers and thunderstorms
will continue to move across the local waters and affect the
southern half of Puerto Rico and St Croix through mid morning
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR expected for the rest of the fcst period.
However, SHRA/TSRA expected to increase from the Caribbean
waters/Mona Passage around 18/06z. Some of these showers could
reach the western/southern terminals overnight and TISX. SHRA
spreading across the rest of the terminals after 18/12z. Medium
confidence on fcst thru 16z, however, SHRA/TSRA should develop
along and to the north of the mtn ranges of PR on Tuesday
afternoon. Low level southerly winds will continue at 5-12 kts.

&&

.MARINE...Recent data from local Buoys and those over the
Atlantic continued to suggest Seas and northerly swell action
at 6 to 9 feet and between 11 to 14 seconds. This will produce
dangerous and hazardous marine conditions today and continuing
through at least early Wednesday morning. As a result small craft
advisories will remain in effect across the Atlantic and local
passages. These large northerly swell will increase the potential
for coastal to occur mainly during high tides.

In addition, there is a high risk of rip currents along the
northwest through northeast facing beaches of Puerto Rico and
Culebra, Vieques as well as the Northern USVI and the east end in
Saint Croix. Also due to the expected deteriorating Seas and Surf
zone conditions, a high surf advisory will go into effect from 6
pm ast today until least 6 am ast Wednesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 149 PM AST Mon Oct 17 2016/

SYNOPSIS...Ridge aloft is to weaken today through wednesday as
tutt low becomes amplified and sinks south across the southwest
atlantic. Broad surface trough extending northwards across the
region from the central Caribbean along with a developing area of
low pressure north of the region, and high pressure ridge across
the Tropical atlantic will maintain a prevailing southerly wind
flow across the forecast area at least until Wednesday. Thereafter,
winds are to become more easterly as the Atlantic ridge will build
and sink southward across the Northeastern Caribbean.

DISCUSSION...Mostly sunny skies across much the region became
partly cloudy in some areas during the afternoon under a light
southerly wind flow. Some showers developed across parts of the
interior and northern half of Puerto Rico including parts of the
San Juan Metro area bot so far no significant rainfall was noted
across the islands. The southerly wind flow should steer some of
the convection towards the north coastal areas during the rest of
the afternoon.

Increasing low level moisture convergence and instability aloft still
expected through Tuesday and possibly on Wednesday with daytime high
temperatures forecast to reach the low 90s along the north coastal
areas over the next few days under the dominant southerly wind flow.
This southerly wind flow will be induced by the broad surface trough
and area of low pressure expected to develop over the southwest
Atlantic and north of the region. As a result of this developing
pattern...expect a better chance for enhanced afternoon convection
on Tuesday and possibly on Wednesday with moisture advection and
instability expected to decrease and diminish by Thursday and into
the upcoming weekend.

AVIATION...Mainly VFR expected for much of the fcst period.
However, SHRA/TSRA expected to increase from the Caribbean
waters/Mona Passage around 18/06z. Some of these showers could reach
the western/southern terminals overnight and TISX. SHRA spreading
across the rest of the terminals after 18/12z. Medium confidence on
fcst thru 16z, however, SHRA/TSRA should develop along and to the
north of the mtn ranges of PR on Tuesday afternoon. Low level
southerly winds will continue at 5-12 kts.

MARINE...Recent data from local Buoys and those over the
Atlantic continued to suggest Seas and northerly swell action
at 6 to 9 feet and between 11 to 14 seconds. This will produce
dangerous and hazardous marine conditions today and continuing
through at least early Wednesday morning. As a result small craft
advisories will remain in effect across the Atlantic and local
passages.

In addition, there is a high risk of rip currents along the
northwest through northeast facing beaches of Puerto Rico and
Culebra, Vieques as well as the Northern USVI and the east end in
Saint Croix. Also due to the expected deteriorating Seas and Surf
zone conditions, a high surf advisory will go into effect from 6
pm ast today until least 6 am ast Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  91  79  92 /  20  60  20  50
STT  80  86  81  86 /  30  40  20  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for Culebra-
     Mayaguez and Vicinity-North Central-Northeast-Northwest-San
     Juan and Vicinity-Southeast-Vieques-Western Interior.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 AM AST Wednesday for Culebra-Mayaguez
     and Vicinity-North Central-Northeast-Northwest-San Juan and
     Vicinity-Southeast-Western Interior.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM AST Tuesday for Culebra-
     Mayaguez and Vicinity-North Central-Northeast-Northwest-San
     Juan and Vicinity-Southeast-Western Interior.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for St Croix-
     St.Thomas...St. John.. and Adjacent Islands.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 AM AST Wednesday for St.Thomas...St.
     John.. and Adjacent Islands.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM AST Tuesday for
     St.Thomas...St. John.. and Adjacent Islands.

AM...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for Coastal
     Waters of Northern USVI and Culebra out 10 NM-Coastal
     Waters of Southern USVI Vieques and Eastern Puerto Rico out
     10 NM.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 AM AST Wednesday for Coastal Waters
     of Northern USVI and Culebra out 10 NM-Coastal Waters of
     Southern USVI Vieques and Eastern Puerto Rico out 10 NM.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM AST Tuesday for Coastal
     Waters of Northern USVI and Culebra out 10 NM-Coastal
     Waters of Southern USVI Vieques and Eastern Puerto Rico out
     10 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST Wednesday for Anegada
     Passage Southward to 17N-Atlantic Waters of Puerto Rico and
     USVI from 10 NM to 19.5N-Coastal Waters OF Northwestern
     Puerto Rico out 10 NM-Coastal Waters of Northern Puerto
     Rico out 10 NM-Coastal Waters of Northern USVI and Culebra
     out 10 NM-Mona Passage Southward to 17N.

&&

72/10

PERSPECTIVAS SOBRE CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS DEL TIEMPO
SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
739 AM AST LUNES 17 DE OCTUBRE DE 2016

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-181145-
SAN JUAN Y VECINDAD-NORESTE-SURESTE-ESTE INTERIOR-
NORTE CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE Y VECINDAD-NOROESTE-
OESTE INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ Y VECINDAD-SUROESTE-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
AGUAS COSTERAS Y MAR AFUERA DEL ATLANTICO Y DEL CARIBE-
739 AM AST LUNES 17 DE OCTUBRE DE 2016

ESTA PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO PELIGROSAS ES PARA
PUERTO RICO Y LAS AGUAS COSTERAS ADYACENTES DEL ATLANTICO.

.DIA UNO...HOY Y ESTA NOCHE

.TRONADAS...EXISTE UNA PROBABILIDAD DE TRONADAS CON LLUVIAS FUERTES
Y VIENTOS BREVES EN RAFAGAS ESTA TARDE A TRAVES DE PORCIONES DE
SECTORES DEL NORTE...OESTE Y CENTRO DE PUERTO RICO.

.INUNDACIONES...LLUVIAS DE MODERADAS A FUERTES PUDIERAN RESULTAR EN
ACUMULACION DE AGUA EN CARRETERAS Y EN INUNDACIONES MENORES EN AREAS
DE POBRE DRENAJE.

.OLAS...OLEAJE PICADO DE HASTA 7 PIES SE ESPERA A TRAVES DE LAS AGUAS
DEL ATLANTICO Y LOS PASAJES LOCALES.

.CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS...EXISTE UN RIESGO ALTO DE CORRIENTES
SUBMARINAS PARA LAS PLAYAS DEL ATLANTICO DE PUERTO RICO.

.CALOR...VIENTOS ALISIOS DEL SURESTE RESULTARAN EN TEMPERATURAS
E INDICES DE CALOR SOBRE LO NORMAL A LO LARGO DE SECTORES DE
LA COSTA NORTE DE PUERTO RICO.

.DIAS DOS HASTA SIETE...MARTES A DOMINGO

SE ESPERA UN AUMENTO EN EL POTENCIAL DE ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS Y
TRONADAS SOBRE EL AREA LOCAL A MEDIDA QUE UNA BAJA PRESION SE
DESARROLLE CERCA DE LA REGION. SE ESPERAN INUNDACIONES URBANAS Y DE
RIACHUELOS.

SE ESPERAN MAREJADAS DE PERIODO LARGO DEL NORTE ALCANZANDO LAS ISLAS
LOCALES EL MARTES HASTA EL JUEVES, PARA PRODUCIR ALTURAS PELIGROSAS
DE OLAS ROMPIENTES, CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS Y EROSION COSTERA A LO
LARGO DE LAS COSTAS DE LAS AGUAS DEL ATLANTICO Y LOS PASAJES DEL
CARIBE.

VIENTOS ALISIOS DEL SURESTE RESULTARAN EN TEMPERATURAS LEVEMENTE
SOBRE LO NORMAL A LO LARGO DE LAS AREAS COSTERAS HASTA EL JUEVES.

.COMUNICADO SOBRE INFORMACION REPORTADA POR OBSERVADORES...

NO SE ANTICIPA ACTIVACION AMPLIA DE OBSERVADORES, SIN EMBARGO SE
INVITA A LOS OBSERVADORES A REPORTAR CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS AL
SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA EN SAN JUAN.

AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-181145-
SAN TOMAS SAN JOHN E ISLAS ADYACENTES-SANTA CRUZ-
AGUAS CERCA DE LA COSTA DEL ATLANTICO Y AGUAS COSTERAS ADYACENTES
DEL CARIBE-
739 AM AST LUNES 17 DE OCTUBRE DE 2016

ESTA PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS DEL TIEMPO ES PARA
LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS Y LAS AGUAS COSTERAS ADYACENTES.

.DIA UNO...HOY Y ESTA NOCHE

.OLAS...OLEAJE PICADO DE HASTA 7 PIES SE ESPERA A TRAVES DE LAS
AGUAS DEL ATLANTICO Y LOS PASAJES LOCALES.

.CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS...EXISTE UN RIESGO MODERADO DE CORRIENTES
SUBMARINAS PARA EL NORTE DE LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS.

.DIAS DOS HASTA SIETE...MARTES A DOMINGO

SE ESPERA UN AUMENTO EN EL POTENCIAL DE ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS Y
TRONADAS SOBRE PARTES DEL AREA DE PRONOSTICO A MEDIDA QUE UN AREA
DE BAJA PRESION SE DESARROLLE AL NORTE DE LA REGION.

ACUMULACION DE AGUA EN LAS CARRETERAS Y EN AREAS DE POBRE DRENAJE
CONTINUARAN SIENDO POSIBLES EN AREAS AISLADAS.

SE ESPERAN MAREJADAS DE PERIODO LARGO DEL NORTE ALCANZANDO LAS ISLAS
LOCALES EL MARTES HASTA EL JUEVES, PARA PRODUCIR ALTURAS PELIGROSAS
DE OLAS ROMPIENTES, CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS Y EROSION COSTERA A LO
LARGO DE LAS COSTAS DE LAS AGUAS DEL ATLANTICO Y LOS PASAJES
DEL CARIBE.

VIENTOS ALISIOS DEL SURESTE RESULTARAN EN TEMPERATURAS LEVEMENTE
SOBRE LO NORMAL A LO LARGO DE LAS AREAS COSTERAS HASTA EL JUEVES.

.COMUNICADO SOBRE INFORMACION REPORTADA POR OBSERVADORES...

NO SE ANTICIPA ACTIVACION AMPLIA DE OBSERVADORES, SIN EMBARGO SE
INVITA A LOS OBSERVADORES A REPORTAR CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS
AL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA EN SAN JUAN.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
457 AM AST TUE OCT 18 2016

PRZ008>011-181015-
SOUTHWEST-NORTHWEST-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-WESTERN INTERIOR-
457 AM AST TUE OCT 18 2016

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ISABELA...
QUEBRADILLAS...SABANA GRANDE...SAN SEBASTIAN...SAN GERMAN...
MARICAO...HORMIGUEROS...MAYAGUEZ...MOCA...GUANICA...LAJAS...ANASCO...
RINCON...AGUADA...AGUADILLA...LAS MARIAS AND CABO ROJO
MUNICIPALITIES...

AT 454 AM AST A INTENSE AREA OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ABOUT TO MOVE INLAND OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO. DANGEROUS LIGHTING
STRIKES, TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED. AS
THESE STORMS PASS BY...EXPECT STRONG GUSTY WINDS AROUND 30-35. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO ACROSS THESE
MUNICIPALITIES.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 1849 6693 1793 6697 1795 6697 1797 6699
      1798 6706 1795 6710 1797 6718 1793 6719
      1799 6721 1801 6717 1804 6721 1817 6718
      1821 6715 1828 6719 1830 6723 1836 6727
      1842 6716 1848 6717 1851 6714
TIME...MOT...LOC 0854Z 200DEG 14KT 1823 6719

FC