Alert archive / Puerto Rico / Special Weather Statements in 2016

Special Weather Statement, NWS JSJ

October 16, 2016

NWS JSJ issued this special weather statement at Oct 16, 2016, 1:55 PM CDT. It was in force for 35 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Oct 16, 2016, 1:55 PM CDT (18:55 UTC)
Expired: Oct 16, 2016, 2:30 PM CDT
In force: 35 min
Issued by: NWS JSJ

The radar

The San Juan radar (TJUA), 52 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:58 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS JSJ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Oct 16, 12:45 PM CDT, 1 hour 10 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 16, 12:45 PM CDT, 1 hour 10 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
145 PM AST Sun Oct 16 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Light easterly winds will continue through tonight
then a weak SFC low starts to develop to the WNW of the local area,
causing the local winds to shift to a more southerly direction on
Monday and bring an increase in moisture by Tuesday which will
linger for the rest of the week. Upper level ridge is expected to
erode by Tuesday as an upper low approaches from the NW, but then
an upper high pressure moves in over the local area late Wednesday.
Locally induced showers expected this this afternoon and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...It was a relatively quiet morning and early
afternoon as the relatively dry air limited the shower activity
quite over the local area. The latest satellite imagery indicates
some cloudiness across the area which implies that there is a
chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms later in the
afternoon across the many sectors of PR except the South, East and
North coastal municipalities. Some showers are possible later in
the afternoon for the USVI, Vieques and Culebra. For tonight
there should be also limited shower activity late tonight.

The overall moisture is expected to remain constant today with a
precipitable water value of around 1.7 inches but is expected to
decrease slightly overnight and Monday as a patch of even drier
air is expected to move in from the south as the winds change to a
southerly direction. However, moisture is expected to increase
significantly starting on Tuesday as the expected SSE winds will
pull moisture from the south and into our local area. this is due
to a SFC low which is expected to develop over Hispaniola into
southern Bahamas or just West-Northwest of the local
islands...causing a wind shift early on Monday...continuing for
the rest of the week. This shift in wind direction will also combine
with an approaching upper low on Tuesday. This setup, if it were
to materialize, would cause an increase in shower and thunderstorm
potential over the local area on Tuesday and Wednesday. Having
said that, if the winds are strong, the showers and thunderstorms
may not be of long duration over the northern half of PR, so there
is uncertainty on just how much rain for the San Juan metro.
However, the southern coast of PR and the USVI may observe
persistent showers moving in from the south.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds to prevail durg entire prd across local
flying area and at all local terminals. Few TCU tops FL100-FL120
with isold-sct SHRA and slight chance of isold TSRA ovr Ctrl and W
PR...bcmg SKC fm 16/23Z. Brief Mtn top obscr ovr PR due to aftn
convection and VCSH at TJSJ/TJBQ/TJMZ/TJPS til 16/23z. Local sea
breeze variations to continue bcmg lgt/vrb aft 16/22z. L/lvl wnds fm
E-NE 10-15 kts blo FL180...bcmg fm NW and incr w/ht abv.

&&

.MARINE...There is a high risk of rip currents for the North
facing beaches of PR and with the northerly swell moving in on
Monday, the high risk of rip currents is expected to continue for
the next couple of days. At this time the local buoys are
reporting seas of around 3 to 5 feet across the local northern
waters and the passages with a period of 13 seconds. Breaking
waves could be 4-7 feet and occasional slightly higher across the
northern beaches of PR. Surf heights are expected to increase by
Monday night as the northerly swell invades the local area. Seas
are expected to deteriorate as well. Currently the local seas are
up to 5 feet but are expected to increase up to 7 feet by monday
night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  90  77  91 /  20  30  20  50
STT  78  88  79  87 /  20  20  30  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for North Central-
     Northeast-Northwest-San Juan and Vicinity-Southeast-Western
     Interior.

VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

09/25

Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 16, 5:07 AM CDT, 8 hours 48 minutes before

PERSPECTIVAS SOBRE CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS DEL TIEMPO
SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
544 AM AST DOMINGO 16 DE OCTUBRE DE 2016

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-170945-
SAN JUAN Y VECINDAD-NORESTE-SURESTE-ESTE INTERIOR-
NORTE CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE Y VECINDAD-NOROESTE-
OESTE INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ Y VECINDAD-SUROESTE-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
AGUAS COSTERAS Y MAR AFUERA DEL ATLANTICO Y DEL CARIBE-
544 AM AST DOMINGO 16 DE OCTUBRE DE 2016

ESTA PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO PELIGROSAS ES PARA
PUERTO RICO Y LAS AGUAS COSTERAS ADYACENTES DEL ATLANTICO.

.DIA UNO...HOY Y ESTA NOCHE

.TRONADAS...EXISTE UNA PROBABILIDAD DE TRONADAS CON LLUVIAS FUERTES
Y VIENTOS BREVES EN RAFAGA ESTA TARDE A TRAVES DE PORCIONES DE
SECTORES DEL OESTE Y CENTRO DE PUERTO RICO.

.INUNDACIONES...LLUVIAS FUERTES PODRAN LLEVAR A INUNDACIONES URBANAS
Y DE RIACHUELOS.

.OLAS...OLEAJE PICADO DE HASTA 5 PIES SE ESPERA A TRAVES DE LAS AGUAS
DEL ATLANTICO.

.CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS...EXISTE UN RIESGO ALTO DE CORRIENTES
SUBMARINAS PARA LAS PLAYAS DEL ATLANTICO DE PUERTO RICO.

.DIAS DOS HASTA SIETE...LUNES A SABADO

UNA MAREJADA DE PERIODO LARGO DEL NORTE SE ESPERA QUE ALCANCE LAS
ISLAS LOCALES DE DOMINGO A MIERCOLES, PRODUCIENDO ALTURAS DE OLAS
ROMPIENTES PELIGROSAS, CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS Y EROSION COSTERA A LO
LARGO DE LAS COSTAS DE LAS AGUAS DEL ATLANTICO Y PASAJES DEL CARIBE.

.COMUNICADO SOBRE INFORMACION REPORTADA POR OBSERVADORES...

NO SE ANTICIPA ACTIVACION AMPLIA DE OBSERVADORES.

AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-170945-
SAN TOMAS SAN JOHN E ISLAS ADYACENTES-SANTA CRUZ-
AGUAS CERCA DE LA COSTA DEL ATLANTICO Y AGUAS COSTERAS ADYACENTES
DEL CARIBE-
544 AM AST DOMINGO 16 DE OCTUBRE DE 2016

ESTA PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS DEL TIEMPO ES PARA
LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS Y LAS AGUAS COSTERAS ADYACENTES.

.DIA UNO...HOY Y ESTA NOCHE

.OLEAJE...OLEAJE PICADO DE HASTA 5 PIES SE ESPERA A TRAVES DE LAS
AGUAS DEL ATLANTICO.

.CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS...EXISTE UN RIESGO MODERADO DE CORRIENTES
SUBMARINAS PARA EL NORTE DE LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS.

.DIAS DOS HASTA SIETE...LUNES A SABADO

UNA MAREJADA DE PERIODO LARGO DEL NORTE SE ESPERA QUE ALCANCE LAS
ISLAS LOCALES DE DOMINGO A MIERCOLES, PRODUCIENDO ALTURAS DE OLAS
ROMPIENTES PELIGROSAS, CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS Y EROSION COSTERA A LO
LARGO DE LAS COSTAS DE LAS AGUAS DEL ATLANTICO Y PASAJES DEL CARIBE.

.COMUNICADO SOBRE INFORMACION REPORTADA POR OBSERVADORES...

NO SE ANTICIPA ACTIVACION AMPLIA DE OBSERVADORES.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Oct 16, 1:55 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
255 PM AST SUN OCT 16 2016

PRZ006-161930-
CENTRAL INTERIOR-
255 PM AST SUN OCT 16 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING CIALES AND JAYUYA MUNICIPALITIES...

AT 253 PM AST...THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING CIALES AND JAYUYA. AS THESE
STORMS PASS BY...EXPECT STRONG GUSTY WINDS AROUND 30-35 MPH...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE THE NEXT HOUR OR SO ACROSS THESE MUNICIPALITIES.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING AND MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 1825 6652 1818 6653 1818 6664 1822 6661
      1826 6659 1827 6658 1828 6656 1833 6657
      1835 6648 1827 6647
TIME...MOT...LOC 1853Z 240DEG 0KT 1826 6656

23

The office that day

Everything else NWS JSJ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Oct 16, 3:08 AM CDT	Rip Current Statement	JSJ	5 days
Oct 16, 2:08 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	JSJ	3 hr
Oct 16, 2:36 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	JSJ	54 min
Oct 16, 3:09 PM CDT	Small Craft Advisory	JSJ	4 days

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Puerto Rico, 2016 Every special weather statement in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.