Special Weather Statement, NWS JSJ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
205 PM AST SAT SEP 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A tropical wave will pass mostly south of the area
Monday and Tuesday bringing some additional showers. Saharan dust
will slowly taper off by Tuesday.

At upper levels...A weak low will cross through the
northern U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico overnight. A broad
high pressure will pass several hundred miles north of the area,
influencing much of the eastern Caribbean on Tuesday, with its
backside affecting the local weather through Saturday of next
week.

At mid levels...High pressure over the sub tropical
Atlantic will move northeast into the mid latitudes on Sunday. A
trough near 36 west will move slowly across the tropical Atlantic
and pass through the local area on friday. Mid level moisture is
best on Tuesday and Saturday.

At lower levels...High pressure continues north of the area while
low pressure dominates the southern Caribbean. A tropical wave is
being pressed southeast and is now expected to pass mostly south
of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Some increase in
showers is expected Monday and Tuesday. High pressure moves into
the north central Atlantic mid-week next week and weakens only
slowly as it sags southeast to generate moderate to locally fresh
trade winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A few showers crossed northeast Puerto Rico during
the morning. In the early afternoon a few streamers were seen off
of Vieques and Saint Croix. Other showers were seen on the
western end of the Cordillera Central. These showers will not
generate as much rain as yesterday and should die off shortly
after sunset, possibly sooner over land. Current GFS run is not
much different from the last several runs and all show drier air
at 850 and 700 mb holding the moisture from the approaching
tropical wave south of the area This moisture is now stretched
from the Windward Islands to 600 miles east of the Windward
Islands. It will begin moving through the Caribbean Sea south of
the local area around 04/06z and now looks like it will not even
enter the forecast area's southeast corner until 05/12z. Have
lowered some POP expectations for this period, but some local air
mass showers are still possible--though they will be isolated for
the most part. Moisture surges into the area on Monday night and
should continue through Tuesday. It is at this time that we should
have the best showers and thunderstorms, but urban and small
stream flooding--if any---should be very localized.

Moisture patches move through the rest of the week, but better
moisture is not expected until the following weekend. Any
depressions that develop are now expected to remain well south of
the area during the next 10 days.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions expected across most of the
terminals through much of the forecast period. SHRA/TSRA associated
to a tropical wave is expected to increase late in the fcst period
across the leeward terminals. HZ due to Saharan dust will continue
for the next day or so. Low level winds will continue ENE at 15-
30 kts.

&&

.MARINE...Small craft advisories may still be possible beginning
Sunday night. Although moisture may not be so far north winds in
the 850-700 mb level will be a little higher than usual. Seas may
not be as high as expected over some waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  80  89  79  87 /  10  10  30  30
STT  81  91  80  88 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.SJU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

13/12

PERSPECTIVAS SOBRE CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS DEL TIEMPO
SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
526 AM AST SABADO 3 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2016

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-032130-
SAN JUAN Y VECINDAD-NORESTE-SURESTE-
INTERIOR ESTE-CENTRAL NORTE-INTERIOR CENTRAL-PONCE Y VECINDAD-
NOROESTE-INTERIOR OESTE-MAYAGUEZ Y VECINDAD-SUROESTE-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
AGUAS COSTERAS Y MAR AFUERA DEL ATLANTICO Y DEL CARIBE-
526 AM AST SABADO 3 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2016

ESTA PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO PELIGROSAS ES
PARA PUERTO RICO Y LAS AGUAS COSTERAS ADYACENTES DEL ATLANTICO.

.DIA UNO...HOY Y ESTA NOCHE

.TRONADAS...EXISTE UNA PROBABILIDAD DE TRONADAS CON LLUVIAS
FUERTES Y VIENTOS EN RAFAGAS BREVES ESTA TARDE A TRAVES DEL SUROESTE
DE PUERTO RICO.

.INUNDACIONES...LLUVIAS FUERTES PODRIAN RESULTAR INUNDACIONES
URBANAS Y DE RIACHUELOS.

.VIENTOS...VIENTOS SOSTENINDOS EN EXCESO DE 20 MPH SE ESPERAN A
TRAVES DE LAS AGUAS LOCALES.

.OLEAJE...OLEAJE PICADO Y PELIGROSO DE HASTA 6 PIES SE ESPERA A
TRAVES DE LAS AGUAS DEL ATLANTICO Y CARIBE.

.CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS...EXISTE UN RIESGO MODERADO DE CORRIENTES
SUBMARINAS PARA LAS PLAYAS DEL ATLANTICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA Y EL
SURESTE.

.CALOR...INDICES DE CALOR ENTRE 102 Y 107 GRADOS SON POSIBLES A
TRAVES DE PORCIONES DE LOS MUNICIPIOS COSTEROS DEL NORTE DE PUERTO
RICO AL IGUAL QUE SOBRE EL SUROESTE DE PUERTO RICO.

.DIAS DOS HASTA SIETE...DOMINGO A VIERNES

UNA ONDA TROPICAL LLEGARA A LA REGION LOCAL TARDE EL DOMINGO HACIA
EL LUNES TRAYENDO AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS HACIA LAS ISLAS LOCALES.

.COMUNICADO SOBRE INFORMACION REPORTADA POR OBSERVADORES...

NO SE ANTICIPA ACTIVACION AMPLIA DE OBSERVADORES...SIN EMBARGO...SE
LES EXHORTA A LOS OBSERVADORES INDIVIDUALES A REPORTAR VIENTOS
FUERTES Y CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS AL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA
EN SAN JUAN.

AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-032130-
SAN TOMAS SAN JOHN E ISLAS ADYACENTES-
SANTA CRUZ-AGUAS CERCA DE LA COSTA DEL ATLANTICO Y AGUAS COSTERAS
ADYACENTES DEL CARIBE-
526 AM AST SABADO 3 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2016

ESTA PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS DEL TIEMPO ES
PARA LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS Y LAS AGUAS COSTERAS ADYACENTES.

.DIA UNO...HOY Y ESTA NOCHE

.VIENTOS...VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS EN EXCESO DE 20 MPH SE ESPERAN A
TRAVES DE LAS AGUAS LOCALES.

.OLEAJE...OLEAJE PICADO Y PELIGROSO DE HASTA 6 PIES SE ESPERA
A TRAVES DE LAS AGUAS DEL ATLANTICO Y CARIBE.

.CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS...EXISTE UN RIESGO MODERADO DE CORRIENTES
SUBMARINAS PARA ALGUNAS DE LAS PLAYAS EN SANTA CRUZ Y SAN TOMAS.

.CALOR...INDICES DE CALOR ENTRE 102 A 107 GRADOS SON POSIBLES A
TRAVES DE LAS ISLAS LOCALES.

.DIAS DOS HASTA SIETE...DOMINGO A VIERNES

UNA ONDA TROPICAL LLEGARA A LA REGION LOCAL TARDE EL DOMINGO HACIA
EL LUNES TRAYENDO AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS HACIA LAS ISLAS LOCALES.

.COMUNICADO SOBRE INFORMACION REPORTADA POR OBSERVADORES...

NO SE ANTICIPA ACTIVACION AMPLIA DE OBSERVADORES...SIN EMBARGO...SE
LES EXHORTA A LOS OBSERVADORES INDIVIDUALES A REPORTAR VIENTOS
FUERTES Y CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS AL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA
EN SAN JUAN.

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