Special Weather Statement, NWS JSJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1055 AM AST MON APR 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY AS TROFINESS ALOFT...AS WELL
AS AT SURFACE PREVAILS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL RESULT
IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO. SHORT
TERM GRIDS WERE UPDATED TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. HEAVY
RAINS COULD LEAD TO URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO THROUGH 25/22Z. THIS MAY RESULT
IN PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS AT JSJ/JPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE MAINLY VFR WITH PASSING SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...HOWEVER FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED INDUCED
SURFACE TROUGH MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS AND WINDS IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

SYNOPSIS...BROAD MID TO UPPER TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FARTHER EAST OF THE REGION TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE AND
MOISTURE REMNANTS FROM AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

DISCUSSION...
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...A LINE OF SHOWERS CONTINUED TO FORM
ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVERGENCE ZONE AND SLOWLY MOVE ONSHORE
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS ACROSS THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY PRODUCED PERIODS OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS THESE AREAS. RAINFALL SO FAR
WAS OF SHORT DURATION WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. THIS ADDED
MOISTURE ALONG WITH ALREADY AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION
WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF LOCALLY AND DIURNALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO
RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS OVER THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS. EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE ISLANDS
TODAY.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE REGION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE
IS STILL EXPECTED TO POOL ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ALONG WITH THE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL AGAIN INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
ENHANCED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE ISLANDS DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS FAIRLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

PREVIOUS NAAPS AEROSOL ANALYSIS PRODUCT AS WELL AS SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUED TO SUGGEST SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST PARTICULATES ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION DUE TO COMBINATION
OF THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...AND MODERATE MID LEVEL
WESTERLIES. THE EXPECTED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION WILL HOWEVER
LESSEN THE EFFECTS OF THE DUST CONCENTRATION.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA. -SHRA POSSIBLE AT TJMZ AND TJPS AS SHRA
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY
THIS MORNING INCREASING SLIGHTLY AFTER 25/14Z BUT WILL CONTINUE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES. CLOUDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY...
GRADUALLY CAUSING CIGS AT AROUND FL080. SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS
CENTRAL PR AFTER 25/16Z...COULD CAUSE VCTS AT TJSJ.

MARINE...SEAS ARE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE DAY DUE TO THE
SUBSIDING NORTHERLY SWELL AND OVERALL LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS. THE
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TO BE REDUCED TO MODERATE BY
6 AM AST THIS MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  85  77  88  76 /  30  20  20  20
STT  87  78  85  78 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

23/27

PERSPECTIVAS SOBRE CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS DEL TIEMPO
SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
1119 AM AST LUNES 25 DE ABRIL DE 2016

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-261530-

SAN JUAN Y VECINDAD-NORESTE-SURESTE-INTERIOR ESTE-NORTE CENTRAL-
INTERIOR CENTRAL-PONCE Y VECINDAD-NOROESTE-INTERIOR OESTE-MAYAGUEZ Y
VECINDAD-SUROESTE-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-AGUAS COSTERAS Y LEJOS DE LA COSTA
DEL ATLANTICO Y DEL CARIBE-
1119 AM AST LUNES 25 DE ABRIL DE 2016

ESTA PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS DEL TIEMPO ES PARA
PUERTO RICO Y LAS AGUAS COSTERAS ADYACENTES DEL ATLANTICO.

.DIA UNO...ESTA TARDE Y ESTA NOCHE

TRONADAS...EXISTE UNA POSIBILIDAD DE TRONADAS CON LLUVIAS FUERTES Y
BREVES VIENTOS EN RAFAGAS ESTA TARDE A TRAVES DE PORCIONES DEL
INTERIOR CENTRAL Y EL OESTE DE PUERTO RICO.

.INUNDACIONES...FUERTES LLUVIAS PODRIAN DAR PASO A INUNDACIONES EN
 AREAS URBANAS Y EN PEQUENOS RIACHUELOS.

.OLAS...OLEAJE PICADO DE HASTA 5 PIES SE ESPERA A TRAVES DE LAS
AGUAS DEL ATLANTICO Y LOS PASAJES.

.CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS...EXISTE UN RIESGO MODERADO DE CORRIENTES
SUBMARINAS PARA LA COSTA DEL NORTE DE PUERTO RICO.

.DIAS DOS HASTA SIETE...MARTES A DOMINGO

UN RIESGO MODERADO DE CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS CONTINUARA A TRAVES
DE LAS PLAYAS DEL NORTE DE PUERTO RICO DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS.

.COMUNICADO SOBRE INFORMACION REPORTADA POR OBSERVADORES...

NO SE ANTICIPA ACTIVACION AMPLIA DE OBSERVADORES...SIN EMBARGO...SE
LES EXHORTA A LOS OBSERVADORES INDIVIDUALES A REPORTAR CORRIENTES
SUBMARINAS AL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA EN SAN JUAN.

AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-261530-

SAN TOMAS SAN JOHN E ISLAS ADYACENTES-SANTA CRUZ-
AGUAS CERCA DE LA COSTA DEL ATLANTICO Y AGUAS COSTERAS
ADYACENTES DEL CARIBE-
1119 AM AST LUNES 25 DE ABRIL DE 2016

ESTA PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS DEL TIEMPO ES PARA
LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS Y LAS AGUAS ADYACENTES COSTERAS.

.DIA UNO...ESTA TARDE Y ESTA NOCHE

.OLAS...OLEAJE PICADO DE HASTA 6 PIES SE ESPERA A TRAVES DE LAS
AGUAS DEL ATLANTICO Y LOS PASAJES.

.CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS...EXISTE UN RIESGO MODERADO DE CORRIENTES
SUBMARINAS A TRAVES DE LA COSTA DEL NORTE DE SAN TOMAS.

.DIAS DOS HASTA SIETE...MARTES A DOMINGO

UN RIESGO MODERADO DE CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS CONTINUARA A LO LARGO DE
LAS PLAYAS DEL NORTE DE ALGUNAS DE LAS ISLAS DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS
DIAS.

.COMUNICADO SOBRE INFORMACION REPORTADA POR OBSERVADORES...

NO SE ANTICIPA ACTIVACION AMPLIA DE OBSERVADORES.

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