Areal Flood Warning 32, NWS JSJ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
209 PM AST Sun Nov 20 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A moist and unstable weather pattern will continue
to prevail through at least Tuesday morning as trofiness and
plenty of low level moisture dominates the northeast Caribbean.
The potential for flooding as well as mudslides continues. A
Flash Flood Watch still in effect for all Puerto Rico.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Mid level trough will continue to prevail across the
western Atlantic and into the Greater Antilles through Tuesday while
weakening. At lower levels, a frontal boundary across the northeast
Caribbean will continue to induce a surface trough as well as
moisture convergence across the local islands. As a result through
Tuesday, under trofiness and moisture convergence, the potential
for showers with thunderstorms will continue to be high. The
strongest and widespread activity will be focused over Puerto Rico
during the late morning through early evening hours due to
enhancement associated with diurnal heating and local effects.
During the late evening and overnight hours, shower and thunder
activity is expected across the coastal areas but mostly over the
regional waters. Across Culebra, Vieques and the U.S. Virgin
Islands, still expect periods of scattered to locally numerous
showers with isolated thunderstorms overnight and early morning
hours. Due to already saturated soils, potential for urban and
small stream flooding as well as sharp rises along rivers continues.
Mudslides in areas of steep terrain is likely.

As the trough moves away and the moisture convergence zone north
northwest of the area weakens, weather conditions are expected to
slowly improve Wed-Thu. However, precipitable water will remain
above the normal range with locally induced showers and thunderstorms
likely. As a strong surface high establishes across the western
and central Atlantic by the end of the week, erosion of low level
moisture is expected with mainly fair weather conditions Friday
and into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA across the interior sections of PR will
continue to develop through the rest of the afternoon hours. Mtn
top obscd and tempo MVFR conds possible across mainland PR
terminals. Frontal boundary will continue over the NW waters of PR
through the fcst period. SHRA with possible isld TSTMS expected
across the Atlantic waters and with a northerly wind component
could reach the northern terminals. Sct-Num showers expected to
continue over the waters affecting much of the flying area with
VCSH/VCTS and possible -RA at times across the rest of terminals.
Sfc winds light and variable overnight.

&&

.MARINE...A short-period swell will invade the offshore Atlantic
waters late tonight and persist through Monday night. Small craft
advisory for the offshore Atlantic waters in effect later tonight.
Seas up to 7 feet are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  85  76  85 /  50  60  40  40
STT  76  86  76  87 /  50  60  50  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening for Central Interior-
     Culebra-Eastern Interior-Mayaguez and Vicinity-North
     Central-Northeast-Northwest-Ponce and Vicinity-San Juan and
     Vicinity-Southeast-Southwest-Vieques-Western Interior.

VI...None.
AM...Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening for Coastal Waters OF
     Southwestern Puerto Rico out 10 NM-Coastal Waters of
     Southern Puerto Rico out 10 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Monday to 6 AM AST Tuesday for
     Atlantic Waters of Puerto Rico and USVI from 10 NM to 19.5N.

&&

13/23

PERSPECTIVAS SOBRE CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS DEL TIEMPO...CORRECCION
SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
537 AM AST DOMINGO 20 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2016

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-210945-
SAN JUAN Y VECINDAD-NORESTE-SURESTE-
ESTE INTERIOR-NORTE CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE Y VECINDAD-
NOROESTE-OESTE INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ Y VECINDAD-SUROESTE-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
AGUAS COSTERAS Y MAR AFUERA DEL ATLANTICO Y DEL CARIBE-
537 AM AST DOMINGO 20 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2016

ESTA PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO PELIGROSAS ES PARA
PUERTO RICO Y LAS AGUAS COSTERAS ADYACENTES DEL ATLANTICO.

.DIA UNO...HOY Y ESTA NOCHE

.TRONADAS...EXISTE UNA PROBABILIDAD DE TRONADAS DISPERSAS CON LLUVIAS
FUERTES Y VIENTOS EN RAFAGAS BREVES ESTA TARDE A TRAVES DE PORCIONES
DE LAS ISLAS LOCALES Y LAS AGUAS REGIONALES.

.INUNDACIONES...INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS ES POSIBLE HOY. DEBIDO A
SUELOS YA SATURADOS, LLUVIAS FUERTES ADICIONALES PROBABLEMENTE
RESULTARAN INUNDACIONES URBANAS Y DE RIACHUELOS AL IGUAL QUE
INCREMENTOS RAPIDOS A LO LARGO DE RIOS Y RIACHUELOS

.OLAS/OLEAJE...OLEAJE PICADO/VIGOROSO DE HASTA 6 PIES SE ESPERAN A
TRAVES DE LAS AGUAS COSTERAS MAR AFUERA DEL ATLANTICO.

.CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS... EXISTE UN RIESGO MODERADO DE CORRIENTES
SUBMARINAS PARA LAS PLAYAS DEL ATLANTICO.

.DIAS DOS HASTA SIETE...LUNES A SABADO

UN PATRON MOJADO Y INESTABLE SE PRONOSTICA QUE PERSISTA SOBRE LA
REGION HASTA TEMPRANO LA SEMANA PROXIMA. DEBIDO A SUELOS YA
SATURADOS, CUALQUIER LLUVIA FUERTE ADICIONAL PROBABLEMENTE RESULTARA
INUNDACIONES URBANAS Y DE RIACHUELOS AL IGUAL QUE INCREMENTOS
RAPIDOS A LO LARGO DE RIOS Y RIACHUELOS. DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO Y
ROCA TAMBIEN SON POSIBLES EN AREAS DE TERRENO EMPINADO A TRAVES DE
PUERTO RICO.

.COMUNICADO SOBRE INFORMACION REPORTADA POR OBSERVADORES...

NO SE ANTICIPA ACTIVACION AMPLIA DE OBSERVADORES, SIN EMBARGO, SE
LES EXHORTA A LOS OBSERVADORES A REPORTAR INUNDACIONES Y CORRIENTES
SUBMARINAS AL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA EN SAN JUAN.

AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-210945-
SAN TOMAS SAN JOHN E ISLAS ADYACENTES-SANTA CRUZ-
AGUAS CERCA DE LA COSTA DEL ATLANTICO Y AGUAS COSTERAS ADYACENTES
DEL CARIBE-
537 AM AST DOMINGO 20 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2016

ESTA PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS DEL TIEMPO ES PARA
LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS Y LAS AGUAS COSTERAS ADYACENTES.

.DIA UNO...HOY Y ESTA NOCHE

.TRONADAS...EXISTE UNA PROBABILIDAD LEVE DE TRONADAS CON LLUVIAS
FUERTES SOBRE LAS ISLAS LOCALES Y LAS AGUAS REGIONALES EN OCASIONES.

.INUNDACIONES...LLUVIAS FUERTES PODRIAN RESULTAR INUNDACIONES
URBANAS Y EN AREAS DE POBRE DRENAJE ESPECIALMENTE A TRAVES DE SAN
TOMAS.

.OLAS/OLEAJE...OLEAJE PICADO DE HASTA 6 PIES SE ESPERAN A TRAVES DE
LAS AGUAS COSTERAS MAR AFUERA DEL ATLANTICO.

.CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS...EXISTE UN RIESGO MODERADO DE CORRIENTES
SUBMARINAS PARA LAS PLAYAS DEL NORTE DE SAN TOMAS Y SANTA CRUZ.

.DIAS DOS HASTA SIETE...LUNES A SABADO

UN PATRON MOJADO Y INESTABLE SE PRONOSTICA QUE PERSISTA SOBRE LA
REGION. ESTE PATRON MOJADO Y INESTABLE ESTA FAVORABLE PARA EL
DESARROLLO DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS A TRAVES DE PORCIONES DE LAS
ISLAS Y LAS AGUAS COSTERAS HASTA TEMPRANO LA SEMANA PROXIMA.

.COMUNICADO SOBRE INFORMACION REPORTADA POR OBSERVADORES...

NO SE ANTICIPA ACTIVACION AMPLIA DE OBSERVADORES, SIN EMBARGO, SE
LES EXHORTA A LOS OBSERVADORES A REPORTAR INUNDACIONES Y CORRIENTES
SUBMARINAS AL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA EN SAN JUAN.

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