Areal Flood Warning 16, NWS JSJ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
225 PM AST Sat Oct 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A mid-upper level high pressure will persist over the region
through at least Monday. The ridge will erode over the area
through the upcoming work week, when a mid-upper level trough
amplified over the region. The mid-upper level trough is expected
to linger through the work week. At low levels...a south easterly
wind flow is expected to prevailed until Sunday, when winds are
expected shift more from the south. A surface low pressure is
expected to linger across the area between Tuesday and Thursday.
This surface low along with the trofiness aloft will produce
enough instability to enhance in the development of showers and
thunderstorms each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A broad mid to upper level high continues to influence the local
weather conditions. However, plenty of moisture combined with
local effects and diurnal heating is resulting in showers and
thunderstorms. This activity should be focused across the
interior, west and north sections of Puerto Rico. Urban and small
stream flooding are likely due to the already saturated soils and
slow moving showers and thunderstorms. In addition, pedestrians
and motorist should remain alert to rapid rising of water levels
and ponding of water on roadways and heed to any road closures.

The San Juan Metro area can expect showers and maybe locally
induced isolated thunderstorms. Although, the U.S. Virgin Islands
should continue to see a mixture of Sunshine and clouds during
the rest of the day, showers can be expected downwind from the
islands.

Ridge aloft will erode next workweek as a broad upper level
trough develops across the tropical Atlantic and into the
Caribbean basin. In addition, a surface low pressure is expected
to linger across the islands between Tuesday and Thursday. This
will result in deep tropical moisture pooling across the forecast
area Tuesday-Thursday with a rainy weather pattern possible.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR conds will remain possible at PR and USVI TAF sites till
29/22z as locally induced SHRA/ isolated TSRA prevails across the
area. Elsewhere, VFR conds expected. ESE winds around 10 knots
with sea breeze variations till 29/22z becoming light and variable
overnight.

&&

.MARINE...There is a moderate to high risk of rip currents along
the north coastline of Puerto Rico and the Northern U.S. Virgin
Islands. Small boat operators should exercise caution across the
Atlantic waters due to seas up to 6 feet. Elsewhere, seas up to 5
feet and seas below 18 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  90  77  88 /  20  30  20  40
STT  77  87  77  87 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM AST this evening for North
     Central-Northwest-San Juan and Vicinity-Western Interior.

VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

23/27

PERSPECTIVAS SOBRE CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS DEL TIEMPO
SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
426 AM AST SABADO 29 DE OCTUBRE DE 2016

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-291000-
SAN JUAN Y VECINDAD-NORESTE-SURESTE-ESTE INTERIOR-
NORTE CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE Y VECINDAD-NOROESTE-
OESTE INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ Y VECINDAD-SUROESTE-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
AGUAS COSTERAS Y MAR AFUERA DEL ATLANTICO Y DEL CARIBE-
426 AM AST SABADO 29 DE OCTUBRE DE 2016

ESTA PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO PELIGROSAS ES PARA
PUERTO RICO Y LAS AGUAS COSTERAS ADYACENTES DEL ATLANTICO.

.DIA UNO...HOY Y ESTA NOCHE

.TRONADAS...PROBABILIDAD DE TRONADAS CON LLUVIA FUERTE Y RAFAGAS DE
VIENTOS BREVES ESTA TARDE A TRAVES DE PORCIONES DEL CENTRO INTERIOR
Y NOROESTE DE PUERTO RICO ASI COMO PORCIONES DEL AREA METROPOLITANA
DE SAN JUAN.

.INUNDACIONES...LLUVIAS FUERTES PUDIERAN RESULTAR EN INUNDACIONES
URBANAS Y DE RIACHUELOS.

.OLAS...OLEAJE PICADO HASTA 6 PIES SE ESPERA A TRAVES DE LAS AGUAS
DEL ATLANTICO.

.CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS...EXISTE UN RIESGO ALTO DE CORRIENTES
SUBMARINAS PARA LA MAYORIA DE LAS PLAYAS DEL NORTE DE PUETO RICO Y
UN RIESGO MODERADO PARA LAS PLAYAS DEL NORTE DE CULEBRA Y VIEQUES.

.DIAS DOS HASTA SIETE...DOMINGO A VIERNES

RIESGO MODERADO A ALTO DE CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS CONTINUARA A LO
LARGO DE LAS COSTAS DEL ATLANTICO DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. SE
PUEDEN ESPERAR CONDICIONES LLUVIOSAS LA PROXIMA SEMANA A MEDIDA QUE
UNA VAGUADA Y HUMEDAD AMPLIA PREVALEZCAN A TRAVES DEL AREA.

.COMUNICADO SOBRE INFORMACION REPORTADA POR OBSERVADORES...

NO SE ANTICIPA ACTIVACION AMPLIA DE OBSERVADORES, SIN EMBARGO SE
INVITA A LOS OBSERVADORES A REPORTAR INUNDACIONES Y CORRIENTES
SUBMARINAS AL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA EN SAN JUAN.

AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-300830-
SAN TOMAS SAN JOHN E ISLAS ADYACENTES-SANTA CRUZ-
AGUAS CERCA DE LA COSTA DEL ATLANTICO Y AGUAS COSTERAS ADYACENTES
DEL CARIBE-
426 AM AST SABADO 29 DE OCTUBRE DE 2016

ESTA PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS DEL TIEMPO ES PARA
LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS Y LAS AGUAS COSTERAS ADYACENTES.

.DIA UNO...HOY Y ESTA NOCHE

.OLAS...OLEAJE PICADO HASTA 6 PIES A TRAVES DE LAS AGUAS DEL
ATLANTICO.

.CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS...EXISTE UN RIESGO MODERADO DE CORRIENTES
SUBMARINAS A LO LARGO DE LAS COSTAS DEL ATLANTICO DE SAN THOMAS Y
SANTA CRUZ.

.DIAS DOS HASTA SIETE...DOMINGO A VIERNES

RIESGO MODERADO DE CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS CONTINUARA A LO LARGO DE
LAS COSTAS DEL ATLANTICO DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. SE ESPERAN
CONDICIONES LLUVIOSAS DURANTE LA PROXIMA SEMANA A MEDIDA QUE UNA
VAGUADA Y HUMEDAD AMPLIA PREVALEZCAN A TRAVES DEL AREA.

.COMUNICADO SOBRE INFORMACION REPORTADA POR OBSERVADORES...

NO SE ANTICIPA ACTIVACION AMPLIA DE OBSERVADORES, SIN EMBARGO SE
INVITA A LOS OBSERVADORES A REPORTAR CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS AL
SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA EN SAN JUAN.

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