Areal Flood Advisory 252, NWS JSJ

017 
WGCA82 TJSJ 202006
FLSSJU

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
406 PM AST TUE SEP 20 2016

PRC039-043-073-107-141-149-202015-
/O.EXP.TJSJ.FA.Y.0252.000000T0000Z-160920T2015Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
OROCOVIS PR-UTUADO PR-VILLALBA PR-COAMO PR-CIALES PR-JAYUYA PR-
406 PM AST TUE SEP 20 2016

...THE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 415 PM
AST FOR OROCOVIS...UTUADO...VILLALBA...COAMO...CIALES AND JAYUYA
MUNICIPALITIES...

THE HIGH WATER IS RECEDING...AND IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO POSE A
THREAT. PLEASE CONTINUE TO HEED ANY ROAD CLOSURES.

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED...AND FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO POSE
A THREAT.

LAT...LON 1831 6662 1821 6639 1811 6636 1806 6640
      1817 6654 1819 6666 1832 6682

$$

FIGUEROA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
1147 AM AST TUE SEP 20 2016

.UPDATE...No changes were made to the inherited forecast since the
latest observations and guidance are in general agreement with
the inherited forecast. The 12Z sounding indicated decent
available energy and plenty of moisture as the precipitable water
value was 1.9 inches. The rest of the parameters indicated a good
chance of showers and thunderstorms although it did not seem
particularly good for very strong thunderstorms or hail producing
storms due to a relatively high freezing level and wet bulb zero
height. So typical showers and thunderstorms are expected today.

A bit earlier than expected...showers started developing in the
late morning hours across several sectors in PR and the USVI. Some
showers streaming off Vieques are affecting eastern PR and some
showers that developed over the Luquillo Mountain Range affected
portions of the San Juan Metro. Saint Thomas and Saint Croix had
showers develop over the islands and move west into the local
waters...but Saint Croix so far has received the more persistent
showers. This activity is expected to continue through a good
portion of the afternoon.

In a few hours...showers are expected to become more numerous
across the interior and western sections of PR with some
thunderstorms developing. The shower and thunderstorm activity is
expected to last until the late afternoon hours...thereafter only
isolated to scattered showers are expected through the local
waters and briefly over the USVI and eastern PR.

&&

.AVIATION...No significant changes from previous discussion. VCSH
across most of the local terminals. SHRA/TSRA affecting TISX/TIST
late in the morning into the early afternoon while TJMZ could
observe SHRA/TSRA around or after 20/17Z. VCTS is possible for
TJBQ/TJPS/TJSJ after 20/17Z as well.

&&

.MARINE...Relatively tranquil marine conditions continue with
seas below 5 feet and east winds between 5 and 15 knots. Moderate
risk of rip currents across the Atlantic beaches of Puerto Rico as
well as some of the beaches in Culebra, Vieques, and Saint Croix.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 540 AM AST TUE SEP 20 2016/

SYNOPSIS...
A trofiness pattern aloft is enhancing the potential of showers
and thunderstorms across the Central and Eastern Caribbean. This
pattern will keep the atmosphere unstable for the rest of the
work week. The available moisture and instability will gradually
diminish by the end of the work week as a mid to upper level ridge
builds near the region. However, patches of low level moisture
will result in trade wind showers during the night and morning
hours, followed by afternoon showers and thunderstorms across the
islands each day.

DISCUSSION...
The Doppler Radar detected trade wind showers across the local
waters, some of them affected the windward sections of Puerto Rico
and the U.S. Virgin Islands from time to time. The preliminary
rainfall totals identified isolated rainfall amounts around a
quarter of an inch near El Yunque Rainforest and portions of East
PR.

Showers across portions of the half East section of PR and
across the U.S. Virgin Islands will continue during the morning
hours. During the afternoon, the proximity of the upper level low,
the available moisture and local effect will result in another
round of showers and thunderstorms across and to the west of the
Cordillera Central. Also showers are expected to develop and move
downwind from the U.S. Virgin Islands and the islands of Vieques
and Culebra. Some of these showers or thunderstorms could affect
the east municipalities of mainland PR, and the San Juan Metro
Area. Although the available moisture is expected to diminish
somewhat, locally induced afternoon showers and thunderstorms are
expected to continue each day at least until the end of the
workweek due to the trofiness pattern aloft.

For the rest of the workweek, the local wind flow pattern will be
dominated by the influence of Tropical Storm Karl, which is
expected to move well off to the Northeast of the local islands.
Consequently, as the winds shift from the north to northeast on
Wednesday, afternoon activity will focus to the south of the
Cordillera. Then by Thursday, a Southerly wind field is expected
to focus the afternoon activity to the North of the Cordillera
Central and downwind off to the North of the U.S. Virgin Islands.
As these changes in the wind field occurs, the winds are also
expected to become light, resulting in slow movers and long
lasting showers and thunderstorms.

AVIATION...
Moisture wrapping around an upper level low from the south will
move west and out of the the Leeward islands arnd 20/18z and out
of USVI arnd 20/22z and PR aft 21/02z. This moisture will bring
isold MVFR cigs in SHRA to TNCM/TKPK and psbly TISX. Aft 20/17Z
areas of SHRA/TSRA will bring mtn obscurations and MVFR conds to
mainly wrn PR. Winds east less than 5 kt bcmg 5 to 15 kt with sea
breeze influence aft 20/14z. Max winds alf E 30 kt arnd FL410 but
diminishing to 15 kt by 21/00z.

MARINE...
Across the regional waters, mariners can continue to expect
relatively tranquil marine conditions with seas below 5 feet and
east winds between 5 and 15 knots. The beach goers should exercise
caution mainly across the Atlantic Beaches due to a moderate risk
of rip currents.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  78  89  78 /  30  40  40  20
STT  88  78  89  77 /  40  40  40  40

&&

.SJU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

25/13

PERSPECTIVAS SOBRE CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS DEL TIEMPO
SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
459 AM AST MARTES 20 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2016

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-210900-
SAN JUAN Y VECINDAD-NORESTE-SURESTE-INTERIOR ESTE-CENTRAL NORTE-
INTERIOR CENTRAL-PONCE Y VECINDAD-NOROESTE-INTERIOR OESTE-
MAYAGUEZ Y VECINDAD-SUROESTE-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
AGUAS COSTERAS Y MAR AFUERA DEL ATLANTICO Y DEL CARIBE-
459 AM AST MARTES 20 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2016

ESTA PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO PELIGROSAS ES PARA
PUERTO RICO Y LAS AGUAS COSTERAS ADYACENTES DEL ATLANTICO.

.DIA UNO...HOY Y ESTA NOCHE

.TRONADAS...TRONADAS SON PROBABLES CON LLUVIAS FUERTES Y VIENTOS EN
RAFAGAS BREVES ESTA TARDE A TRAVES DE PORCIONES DEL OESTE Y INTERIOR
DE PUERTO RICO.

.INUNDACIONES...LLUVIAS FUERTES PODRAN RESULTAR EN INUNDACIONES
URBANAS Y DE RIACHUELOS.

.CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS...EXISTE UN RIESGO MODERADO DE CORRIENTES
SUBMARINAS PARA EL NORTE DE PUERTO RICO Y LA PUNTA ESTE DE CULEBRA Y
VIEQUES.

.CALOR...HUMEDAD ALTA Y TEMPERATURAS CALIDAS RESULTARAN INDICE DE
CALOR ENTRE 102 Y 107 GRADOS FAHRENHEIT A LO LARGO DE LAS
LOCALIDADES COSTERAS DEL SUR, SUROESTE Y ALGUNAS EN LA COSTA NORTE
DE PUERTO RICO ALGUNAS HORAS EN EL MEDIO DEL DIA.

.DIAS DOS HASTA SIETE...MIERCOLES A LUNES

AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS DISPERSAS CONTINUARAN DURANTE LAS TARDES EN
PUERTO RICO...MAYORMENTE EN PORCIONES DEL INTERIOR Y OESTE.
CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS CONTINUARAN HASTA EL JUEVES Y VIERNES. ALGUNAS
LOCALIDADES COSTERAS, MAYORMENTE EN LA COSTA NORTE, EXPERIMENTARAN
INDICE DE CALOR ENTRE 102 Y 107 GRADOS FAHRENHEIT ALGUNAS HORAS
DURANTE EL MEDIO DEL DIA.

.COMUNICADO SOBRE INFORMACION REPORTADA POR OBSERVADORES...

NO SE ANTICIPA ACTIVACION AMPLIA DE OBSERVADORES...SIN EMBARGO...SE
LES EXHORTA A LOS OBSERVADORES INDIVIDUALES A REPORTAR INUNDACIONES
Y CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS AL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA EN SAN
JUAN.

AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-210900-
SAN TOMAS SAN JOHN E ISLAS ADYACENTES-SANTA CRUZ-
AGUAS CERCA DE LA COSTA DEL ATLANTICO Y AGUAS COSTERAS ADYACENTES DEL CARIBE-
459 AM AST MARTES 20 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2016

ESTA PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS DEL TIEMPO ES
PARA LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS Y LAS AGUAS COSTERAS ADYACENTES.

.DIA UNO...HOY Y ESTA NOCHE

.TRONADAS...EXISTE UNA PROBABILIDAD DE TRONADAS CON LLUVIAS FUERTES
Y VIENTOS EN RAFAGAS BREVES ESTA TARDE A TRAVES DE PORCIONES DEL
OESTE DE LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS.

.CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS...EXISTE UN RIESGO MODERADO DE CORRIENTES
SUBMARINAS PARA ALGUNAS LOCALIDADES EN LA COSTA NORTE DE SAN TOMAS Y
SANTA CRUZ.

.DIAS DOS HASTA SIETE...MIERCOLES A LUNES

EL RIESGO MODERADO DE CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS CONTINUARA HASTA EL
VIERNES. DE OTRA MANERA, NO SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS DE
TIEMPO.

.COMUNICADO SOBRE INFORMACION REPORTADA POR OBSERVADORES...

NO SE ANTICIPA ACTIVACION AMPLIA DE OBSERVADORES...SIN EMBARGO...SE
LES EXHORTA A LOS OBSERVADORES INDIVIDUALES A REPORTAR INUNDACIONES
Y CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS AL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA EN
SAN JUAN.