Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
608 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 609 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

Current radar trends and hi res model output show much less
rainfall for northern areas through the evening and overnight
hours. Thus, have cancelled the flash flood watch for all areas
except for southern and southeast Kentucky where we could see
redevelopment through the overnight hours. Also trimmed back some
of the severe thunderstorm watch for areas that have already seen
storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 400 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

Presently an MCV is pushing east across central Kentucky with a
line of showers and storms pushing across central Kentucky and
soon will be working into eastern Kentucky. While instability has
built up ahead of this line, its not all that high for July
standards. Regardless, still a shot at a few damaging wind gusts
as it pushes across the remainder of the area. Thus, the severe
thunderstorm watch will continue until 9 pm. As far as flash flood
watch goes, still lots of heavy rain possible through this
evening, so opting to leave the watch in place for now. As
mentioned earlier, most of the convection has been fairly
progressive, with not much training, so confidence is low in
flash flooding over the next several hours. As we head overnight,
instability will come down, but a frontal zone will remain
anchored across the region. We could see redevelopment along the
front overnight, but not expecting it to be as widespread as this
evening. By tomorrow, we may see an uptick again across the area
of showers and storms as the front very slowly inches southward.
Best rain chances will be across southeast Kentucky, but models
are trending wetter tomorrow for most areas. By tomorrow night, we
may see more of a lull in activity as instability declines and the
main front slips south. However, confidence isn't all that high on
placement of the front with thunderstorm activity possibly laying
down some boundaries. Should stay warm tomorrow with highs back
into the 80s. Lows tonight and tomorrow night should settle around
70 both night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 437 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

Mainly zonal flow will continue across the CONUS through most of
the extended period, with several short wave troughs to traverse
the flow. A baroclinic zone will linger across the mid-
Mississippi valley, keeping things stormy and humid across eastern
Kentucky. The blended guidance offered a good starting point, but
did dial down some of the higher given pops due to the uncertainty
with the role of the mesoscale.

Early next week, the long wave pattern looks to amplify a bit,
with a ridge axis building across the central CONUS, leaving the
east in more troughiness. This will keep at least low precip
chances in the forecast, but may at least bring some relief from
the higher humidity.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

Showers and storms will work east across the area this afternoon
and evening with temporary reductions in visibilities and ceilings
expected. Storms will also contain strong gusty winds. Outside of
the showers/storms, mainly VFR conditions will be seen. A frontal
boundary will slip south across the area overnight, with a
possible lowering of cigs expected late tonight into early
tomorrow morning. Still some uncertainty on timing of the front,
so its possible the lower cigs will be delayed and not reach most
areas until later if at all. We will continue to monitor this
potential.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...KAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
605 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-060115-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...CAMARGO...
JEFFERSONVILLE...MOUNT STERLING...OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...
IRVINE...RAVENNA...CLAY CITY...STANTON...FRENCHBURG
605 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

KYZ080-084>088-107-109-110-112>120-060115-
LAUREL-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-JOHNSON-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-
BREATHITT-KNOTT-OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LONDON...STEARNS...WHITLEY CITY...
CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...
CUMBERLAND...HARLAN...PAINSVILLE...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...
WHEELWRIGHT...JACKSON...HINDMAN...PIPPA PASSES...BOONEVILLE...
HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...JENKINS...WHITESBURG...INEZ...
COAL RUN...ELKHORN CITY...PIKEVILLE...SOUTH WILLIAMSON
605 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 321 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...WHICH MAY LEAD TO INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING. ALSO...SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH 9 PM THIS
EVENING...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT ANY INSTANCES OF DAMAGING WINDS OR
FLOODING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.

KYZ068-069-079-083-060115-
ROCKCASTLE-JACKSON-PULASKI-WAYNE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BROADHEAD...MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...
ANNVILLE...BURNSIDE...SOMERSET...MONTICELLO
605 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...WHICH MAY LEAD TO INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT ANY INSTANCES OF DAMAGING WINDS OR
FLOODING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.

KYZ104-106-108-111-060115-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-WOLFE-LEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...CAMPTON...
BEATTYVILLE
605 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 321 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. SEVERE STORMS MAY
DEVELOP THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT ANY INSTANCES OF DAMAGING WINDS FROM
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.

KAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
448 PM EDT MON JUL 04 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0423 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PULASKI                 37.21N 84.64W
07/04/2016                   PULASKI            KY   911 CALL CENTER

            SEVERAL TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN ON SMITH VAUGHT RD AND
            THE 9000 BLOCK OF HIGHWAY 1247.

&&

KAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
455 PM EDT MON JUL 04 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0433 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BRODHEAD                37.40N 84.42W
07/04/2016                   ROCKCASTLE         KY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON POWERLINE ON WEST MAIN STREET IN BROADHEAD.

&&

KAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
523 PM EDT MON JUL 04 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0433 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSW BRODHEAD          37.38N 84.43W
07/04/2016                   ROCKCASTLE         KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LOTS OF TREES AND TREE DEBRIS DOWN ON HIGHWAY 3245 ABOUT
            2 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF BRODHEAD.

&&

KAS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
526 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

KYZ080-083>087-116-117-042200-
WAYNE-LAUREL-KNOX-WHITLEY-BELL-LESLIE-CLAY-MCCREARY-
526 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF
WAYNE...LAUREL...KNOX...WHITLEY...BELL...LESLIE...CLAY...AND
MCCREARY COUNTIES...

AT 524 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM SIDELL TO YOUNGS CREEK TO NEAR MOUNT PISGAH...AND
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS WHICH MAY BE IMPACTED BETWEEN 530 PM AND 630 PM INCLUDE...
LONDON...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MANCHESTER...WHITLEY CITY...
BUSH...CLATE...SPRULE...MOORE HILL...GIRDLER...COTTONGIN... SUTTONS
MILL...BERTHA STATION...KING...HAVEN...BRUSH CREEK...CLIO...
ARTEMUS...CANNON AND PARMLEYSVILLE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 8457 3661 8494 3692 8431 3730 8383
      3703 8343 3659 8400
TIME...MOT...LOC 2124Z 304DEG 22KT 3721 8383 3689 8424 3661 8481

HAL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
548 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

KYZ108-109-112-113-115-117-042215-
PERRY-KNOTT-WOLFE-LESLIE-MAGOFFIN-BREATHITT-
548 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF PERRY...
KNOTT... WOLFE...LESLIE...MAGOFFIN...AND BREATHITT COUNTIES...

AT 547 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM HOLLONVILLE...TO SALDEE...TO SHOAL...AND MOVING EAST
AT 45 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HAZARD...JACKSON...SIMPSON...BUCKHORN...CORNELIA...SEWELL...LANE...
PORTSMOUTH...PUNCHEON...SEILTZ...NED...COPLAND...VANCLEVE...TIPTOP...
CUTUNO...MOSLEY BEND...NOBLE...HOWARD CREEK...ELIC AND HAGINSVILLE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT.

&&

LAT...LON 3722 8347 3745 8346 3771 8349 3772 8328
      3771 8326 3772 8326 3773 8307 3750 8304
      3725 8305
TIME...MOT...LOC 2147Z 264DEG 38KT 3768 8345 3746 8341 3725 8343

HAL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
621 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

KYZ084>088-113-115>118-120-042315-
PERRY-KNOX-KNOTT-WHITLEY-LETCHER-BELL-LESLIE-HARLAN-PIKE-CLAY-
MCCREARY-
621 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PERRY...KNOX...KNOTT...
WHITLEY...LETCHER...BELL...LESLIE...HARLAN...PIKE...CLAY...
MCCREARY...

AT 621 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM DIABLOCK TO NEAR RELLA TO AYERS...AND MOVING EAST AT
60 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HAZARD...BARBOURVILLE...WHITESBURG...HARLAN...PINEVILLE...HYDEN...
MIDDLESBORO...LETCHER...BATH...CUMBERLAND...JENKINS...LOYALL...
EVARTS...FLEMING-NEON...LYNCH...BENHAM...VICCO...WALLINS CREEK...
BLACKEY AND SUNSHINE.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 HAL ROGERS PARKWAY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 40 AND 59.
 INTERSTATE 75 IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 9.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...WHICH WILL
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 8436 3693 8379 3729 8333 3727 8237
      3712 8272 3705 8272 3698 8287 3690 8287
      3685 8307 3674 8314 3667 8353 3658 8369
TIME...MOT...LOC 2221Z 257DEG 51KT 3724 8319 3685 8359 3663 8421

JVM