Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, KY

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
819 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 819 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms continue to fire
up along a stalled outflow boundary aligned from Mount Vernon
down through Harlan. Most of the higher resolution guidance and
general radar trends advertise a gradual weakening trend over the
next 1 to 2 hours. Locally heavy rainfall will be the biggest
concern out these storms, although given the long stretch of dry
weather we have seen, most hydro problems should be limited to
flood prone areas. Have freshened up pops over the next few hours
to account for the latest radar trends. Have also allowed for more
of a lull through the night, with higher resolution models
suggesting any further convective activity moving in from the
northwest looks to arrive mainly after 12z Wednesday. Any partial
clearing will allow for areas of fog, and have continued to
advertise this in the forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 608 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016

As much of the instability has waned across the area and any upper
level support has shifted to the east, the severe threat has
ended and the watch has been cancelled. In fact, with left over
showers and weaker storms in place, the environment will need till
tomorrow to replenish instability. Hi res models have trended on
this with a later arrival time tomorrow of the next disturbance.
This has also left a stable period overnight with fog development
likely and possibly dense. Will need to reevaluate heading into
the evening hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 343 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016

Current surface analysis as of 1930z features a line of convection
along and just ahead of a nearly washed out boundary tracking
southeast through eastern Kentucky. Some readily available shear
and ample instability at the start of this event has allowed for
some rotation in the storms as some have even had supercell
characteristics. Otherwise with a good mid level jet in place the
main concern will continue to be for wind through the rest of the
afternoon. As the afternoon wanes into the early evening hours,
surface instability will eventually weaken with the loss of
heating and lack of support. Would expect this to occur by 00z.

Heading into tonight, as the convection from earlier today begins
to dissipate as it slides southeast, a new low pressure system and
associated cluster of storms develops and begins to track
southeast. As this occurs, a developing warm front lifts northeast
as southwesterly warm and moist air increases. This next round
begins to ramp up and track into the area in the mid morning hours
on Wednesday morning. The question here will be how early the
activity arrives and amount of coverage. If convection lingers
through the morning, afternoon heating and increased instability
will be stunted with a lesser severe threat on Wednesday
afternoon.

With a slight risk of severe storms slated for Wednesday, the main
threat will be confined to the north and northeastern portions of
eastern Kentucky. The NAM and GFS hint at early convection will be
concentrated over the south and southwest Wednesday morning before
transitioning to the northeast through the day as the warm front
develops. By Wednesday night as the front lifts through the area,
skies will begin to clear out in the south with fog development
then becoming a concern. The main question over the next couple of
days for this pattern will be despite the ample instability each
day, organization of strong to severe convection can depend on
timing of arrival and max heating and debris from previous dying
MCS cutting off instability from future developing ones

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 313 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016

The long term period will be dominated by a southern US ridge and
shortwave impulses embedded within the northern stream flow. At the
start of the period, the southern ridge will hold steady just south
of Kentucky as the northern stream begins to amplify. This northern
stream amplification will allow for a northern stream impulse to
skirt by Kentucky on Friday. The ridge extends its influence north
over the region on Saturday and Sunday, though another trough rides
east along the US/Canadian border. Ahead of this feature's push
toward the Great Lakes, energy will scoot along the northern extent
of the ridge to affect Kentucky mainly Monday and Tuesday, with some
significant height falls expected. The trough axis approaches East
Kentucky Wednesday night into Thursday with additional energy ahead
of the trough.

At the surface, a trailing cold front extending from a low pressure
system over the Great Lakes will pass through the region late
Thursday into Friday. Depending on the timing of the frontal
passage, strong to severe storms may be possible with this frontal
passage. The front is expected to push south of Kentucky by the end
of the work week which should allow for a mostly dry weekend across
the forecast area. Precipitation chances then increase through the
rest of the forecast period as heat and humidity build back in, with
convection possible each day.

Temperatures will remain warm throughout the period with highs
generally in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the upper 60s. The
warmest days of the period will be over the weekend where
temperatures could surpass the 90 degree mark.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 819 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016

Convection aligned from just northeast of KLOZ down through KI35
will gradually weaken through 02z across the area. Will maintain
vicinity TS at KLOZ as storms look to remain just off to the
northeast and east of the site. Skies will partially clear
through this evening, allowing for at least MVFR or worse fog to
form. Have hit SJS harder, since they had sustained heavier
rainfall earlier. KLOZ also saw quite a bit of rainfall; however,
some light winds may keep the fog from becoming too dense. Fog
will burn off between 12 and 14z, with convection threatening once
again from the northwest as early as 13z. Generally light and
variable winds overnight will engage out of the southwest for most
locations at 5 to 10 kts during the day on Wednesday.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
607 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-221100-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...CAMARGO...
JEFFERSONVILLE...MOUNT STERLING...OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...
IRVINE...RAVENNA...CLAY CITY...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...BROADHEAD...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...ANNVILLE...BURNSIDE...SOMERSET...LONDON...
MONTICELLO...STEARNS...WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...
BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...CUMBERLAND...HARLAN...
SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINSVILLE...CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...
PRESTONSBURG...WHEELWRIGHT...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...HINDMAN...
PIPPA PASSES...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...
JENKINS...WHITESBURG...INEZ...COAL RUN...ELKHORN CITY...
PIKEVILLE...SOUTH WILLIAMSON
607 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...WITH SOME
CONTAINING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES ON FRIDAY AND AGAIN
ON SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY INSTANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY.

SHALLENBERGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
451 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0441 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ESE PINEVILLE         36.76N 83.68W
06/21/2016                   BELL               KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ONE TREE DOWN ON BIRD BRANCH ROAD. ALSO HAD DIME-SIZED
            HAIL.

&&

GEOGERIAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
451 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016

KYZ110-120-212115-
FLOYD-PIKE-
451 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT FLOYD...PIKE...

AT 451 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER META...OR 7 MILES
NORTHEAST OF PIKEVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PIKEVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...COAL RUN VILLAGE...ELKHORN CITY...
MARTIN...ALLEN...CHLOE...FISHTRAP LAKE...ASHCAMP...RACCOON...
BAMMER...HAROLD...SHELBIANA...GARDEN VILLAGE...OSBORN...CEDARVILLE...
HONAKER...GALVESTON...BLUE MOON AND GRETHEL.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 KENTUCKY HIGHWAY 80 IN FLOYD COUNTY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 11 AND 13.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 119 IN PIKE COUNTY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 16.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 23 IN FLOYD COUNTY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 11.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 23 IN PIKE COUNTY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 7 AND 32.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...WHICH WILL
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY.

&&

LAT...LON 3727 8235 3723 8249 3762 8279 3765 8237
      3744 8211
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 325DEG 41KT 3755 8242

KAS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
559 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016

KYZ086>088-212245-
KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
559 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT KNOX...BELL...HARLAN...

AT 559 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER OLD FLAT LICK...OR
NEAR PINEVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BARBOURVILLE...PINEVILLE...CALVIN...GIRDLER...SWANPOND...
STONY FORK JUNCTION...CARY...PONZA...BRUSH CREEK...ARTEMUS...
CANNON...HUTCH...PEEPACE STORE...TROSPER...SCALF...OLD FLAT LICK...
VARILLA...HINKLE...ARJAY AND BIMBLE.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 U.S. HIGHWAY 25 EAST IN BELL COUNTY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 5 AND 18.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 25 EAST IN KNOX COUNTY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 12.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...WHICH WILL
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3685 8394 3699 8379 3672 8329 3667 8343
      3667 8353 3661 8366
TIME...MOT...LOC 2159Z 313DEG 33KT 3684 8374

KAS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
637 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016

KYZ085>087-212300-
KNOX-WHITLEY-BELL-
637 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT KNOX...WHITLEY...BELL...

AT 636 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER LOUDEN...OR 7 MILES
EAST OF WILLIAMSBURG...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MIDDLESBORO...LUCKY...DIXIE...NEVISDALE...FRAKES...CLATE...
DAVISBURG...GOINS...SUTTONS MILL...YADEN...PACKARD...CHENOA...
SILER...POLLY CAMP...PERKINS...EMLYN...NOETOWN...GAUSDALE...
BINGHAMTOWN AND VERNE.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 75 IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 7 AND 9.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 25 EAST IN BELL COUNTY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 4.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...WHICH WILL
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3659 8403 3670 8417 3684 8402 3662 8365
      3658 8369
TIME...MOT...LOC 2236Z 312DEG 38KT 3673 8403

GEOGERIAN

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