Alert archive / Kentucky / Special Weather Statements in 2016

Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, KY

April 26, 2016Bath County, Kentucky

NWS Jackson, KY issued this special weather statement at Apr 26, 2016, 8:13 PM EDT for Bath County, Kentucky. It was in force for 47 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Apr 26, 2016, 8:13 PM EDT (00:13 UTC)
Expired: Apr 26, 2016, 9:00 PM EDT
In force: 47 min
Issued by: NWS Jackson, KY

County Bath County, KY

The radar

The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 65 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:13 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 00:00Z, 0.2 hours before the alert went out and 145 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 435 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -57 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1038 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 35 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 8 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 25 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: -0.0
Supercell composite: -0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Apr 26, 4:51 PM EDT, 3 hours 22 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 26, 4:51 PM EDT, 3 hours 22 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
451 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

KEEPING AN EYE ON A LOT OF DIFFERENT WEATHER FEATURES TODAY.
FIRST...A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESENTLY RESIDES ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA INTO SOUTHERN OHIO...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS FIRING OFF ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. FARTHER TO THE WEST...A
BOWING MCS IS WORKING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN MISSOURI. THIS
BOW HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SOME
HAIL. ITS NOW PUSHING ACROSS THE ST LOUIS AREA. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AHEAD OF THIS BOWING SYSTEM
INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. MUCH OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS
CAPPED WITH NOT CONVECTION PRESENTLY. HOWEVER...CAP HAS WEAKENED
SUFFICIENTLY IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64
TO ALLOW SOME SHOWERS TO POP UP. THESE SHOWERS WON'T HAVE A
BOUNDARY TO FOCUS THE INSTABILITY...SO REALLY NOT EXPECTING MUCH
OUT OF THESE OTHER THAN A QUICK PASSING SHOWER.

MAIN SHOW WILL LIKELY COME AS THE MCS OUT WEST PUSHES ACROSS
KENTUCKY AND INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY LATER THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TAKE THE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND DRAG IS SOUTHWARD...WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WORKING ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
AFTER 00Z. LATEST HRRR/ARW/NMM ALL ARE VERY SIMILAR IN THE
HANDLING OF THE MCS...AND THEY HAVE IT BREAKING APART AS IT
CROSSES CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE
GONE CATEGORICAL WITH POPS FOR OUR WESTERN/NORTHERN
AREAS...TRAILING OFF TO LOWER POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST...TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE WEAKENING SYSTEM.

IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS...EXPECTING SOME SUBSIDENCE TO OVERSPREAD
EASTERN KENTUCKY...PRODUCING A LULL IN SHOWER/STORM CHANCES.
HOWEVER...WITH THE BOUNDARY REMAINING IN OUR VICINITY...AND
POSSIBLY OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO TOMORROW...HAVE KEPT SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. BY TOMORROW...QUESTION CENTERS
AROUND WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE FRONT SITTING OVER THE AREA...WITH
SOME RIDGING ALOFT. WHILE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST MORE
SHOWERS...HARD PRESSED TO FIND MUCH SUPPORT SYNOPTICALLY FOR ANY
SHOWERS. IN FACT...DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT SETS UP...WE MAY
HAVE LOTS OF CLOUDS TO LIMIT INSTABILITY. FOR THIS REASON...WILL
STAY LOW ON THE POPS THROUGH TOMORROW. BETTER FORCING WILL ARRIVE
LATE IN THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES TOWARDS THE AREA
ALONG WITH A PEAK IN DAYTIME INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BETTER
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE. AS THIS TROUGH AXIS PASSES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DECENT CHANCE FOR MORE COVERAGE IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS...BEFORE IT EXITS EAST LATE AT NIGHT.
OVERALL...EXPECT MILD CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 60 AND HIGHS INTO THE 70 ON
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN STILL LOOKING ON TRACK FOR
OUR AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
GRADUALLY DAMPEN AS IT HEADS NORTHEAST AND THEN EAST FROM THE
PLAINS TO NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN
MOVE IN ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BRINGING A DRY END TO THE
WORK WEEK. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY EJECTING EASTWARD. SOME
OF THIS ENERGY WILL INTERACT WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA AND ALLOW FOR TROUGHING TO EXPAND FURTHER SOUTH
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE BEST FORCING WILL BE NORTH...HOWEVER
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MODEST FORCING TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF A
WEAKER CAP DURING AFTERNOON HEATING. PRECIP CHANCES WILL WIND DOWN
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE EXITS AND RIDGING STARTS BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BEFORE
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND FORCING ARRIVE FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.
THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING...SO DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE BLENDED GUIDANCE. THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL OCCUR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS A MORE
DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS. TROUGHING WILL LINGER INTO AT LEAST MONDAY AND POSSIBLY
TUESDAY...JUSTIFYING CHANCE POPS...HOWEVER 12Z RUNS HAVE SHOWN
MORE OF A POTENTIAL REPRIEVE BY TUESDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE UNDERCUT
THE GIVEN BLENDED POPS SOMEWHAT UNTIL THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...AND THEN LOOK TO COOL SLIGHTLY BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER...A DYING MCS
WILL LIKELY TRAVERSE THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING...BRINGING A ROUND
OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE AREA. THIS MAY BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR VISIBILITIES/CIGS AS IT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...A
FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR NORTH WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND STALL
OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...LOW MVFR/IFR
CIGS WILL DEVELOP. STILL LOTS OF QUESTIONS HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
BOUNDARY REACHES...AND WILL GO AS FAR SOUTH AS JACKSON FOR NOW.
HOWEVER...ITS POSSIBLE MORE OF THE AREA GETS UNDER MVFR/IFR CIGS
BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH FRONT MAKES
IT...WE MAY BE STUCK IN LOW CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF
WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...KAS

Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 26, 7:27 PM EDT, 46 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
727 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-104-106>120-280230-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-
FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-
PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...CAMARGO...
JEFFERSONVILLE...MOUNT STERLING...OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...
IRVINE...RAVENNA...CLAY CITY...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...BROADHEAD...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...ANNVILLE...BURNSIDE...SOMERSET...LONDON...
SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINSVILLE...CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...
PRESTONSBURG...WHEELWRIGHT...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...HINDMAN...
PIPPA PASSES...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...
JENKINS...WHITESBURG...INEZ...COAL RUN...ELKHORN CITY...
PIKEVILLE...SOUTH WILLIAMSON
727 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 111 IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST STORMS
MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND...MAINLY DURING THE
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...AND AGAIN FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

KYZ083>088-280230-
WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTICELLO...STEARNS...WHITLEY CITY...
CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...
CUMBERLAND...HARLAN
727 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...AND AGAIN FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

KAS/GEOGERIAN/HAL

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Apr 26, 4:23 PM EDT, 3 hours 50 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
423 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

KYZ108-109-111-112-262100-
LEE-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-BREATHITT-
423 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT LEE...WOLFE...MAGOFFIN...
BREATHITT THROUGH 5 PM...

AT 422 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER WAR CREEK...OR NEAR
JACKSON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JACKSON...SIMPSON...PRESS...CORNELIA...SEWELL...LANE...QUICKSAND...
PORTSMOUTH...PUNCHEON...SEILTZ...VANCLEVE...GUAGE...YEADON...OAKDALE...
HAGINSVILLE...BURKHART...DALE...BAYS...JETTS CREEK AND CURT.

&&

LAT...LON 3749 8356 3767 8359 3772 8319 3750 8316
TIME...MOT...LOC 2022Z 261DEG 26KT 3759 8348

GEOGERIAN

Local storm report, Apr 26, 7:43 PM EDT, 30 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
743 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0718 PM     HAIL             PEASTICKS               38.16N 83.70W
04/26/2016  M1.00 INCH       BATH               KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

JCARICO

Special weather statement, Apr 26, 7:55 PM EDT, 18 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
755 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

KYZ052-104-106-270045-
ROWAN-ELLIOTT-MORGAN-
755 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ROWAN...ELLIOTT...MORGAN...

AT 754 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER PELFREY...OR NEAR
MOREHEAD...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOREHEAD...SANDY HOOK...STEELE...MINOR...CROCKETT...CHRISTY...WAGNER STORE...
LYTTEN...ELAMTON...NEWFOUNDLAND...CLEARFIELD...HAMM...WRIGLEY...
ELLIOTTVILLE...LITTLE SANDY...LENOX...BLAZE...VALE...PELFREY AND CRIX.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM EDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN AND EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

&&

LAT...LON 3822 8330 3821 8330 3821 8328 3819 8326
      3819 8324 3820 8323 3815 8297 3790 8310
      3810 8349 3824 8342
TIME...MOT...LOC 2354Z 291DEG 23KT 3813 8337

AR

Special weather statement, Apr 26, 8:13 PM EDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
813 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

KYZ050>052-060-106-270100-
ROWAN-MONTGOMERY-BATH-MENIFEE-MORGAN-
813 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ROWAN...MONTGOMERY...BATH...
MENIFEE...MORGAN...

AT 813 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER PRESTON...OR NEAR
OWINGSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOREHEAD...OWINGSVILLE...FRENCHBURG...MARSHALL...SALT LICK...DAN...LOWER
SPENCER...PEASTICKS...BIG WOODS...CLEARFIELD...BOURBON FURNACE...PRESTON...
CROOKS...MOORE'S FERRY...RAMEY...WALKERS CROSSING...HOPE...SLATE VALLEY...
STEPSTONE AND COGSWELL.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 64 IN EASTERN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
116 AND 137.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...WHICH WILL
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM EDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN AND EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

&&

LAT...LON 3820 8341 3792 8341 3801 8385 3818 8383
      3819 8365 3817 8364 3819 8363
TIME...MOT...LOC 0013Z 273DEG 18KT 3808 8374

AR

The office that day

Everything else NWS Jackson, KY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 26, 8:20 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	JKL	Bath, Elliott, Montgomery, Rowan	115 min
Apr 26, 9:06 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	JKL	Bath, Rowan	114 min
Apr 26, 9:08 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	JKL	Powell	37 min
Apr 26, 11:05 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	JKL	Bath, Estill, Fleming, Jackson, Lee, Menifee and 6 more	40 min
Apr 26, 11:32 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Bath, Breathitt, Estill, Jackson, Lee, Menifee and 5 more	43 min
Apr 26, 11:38 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	JKL	Clay, Jackson, Laurel, Owsley, Pulaski, Rockcastle and 1 more	22 min
Apr 26, 11:59 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	JKL	Clay, Jackson, Knox, Laurel, McCreary, Owsley and 2 more	31 min
Apr 27, 12:12 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	JKL	Breathitt, Magoffin, Morgan, Wolfe	33 min
Apr 27, 12:40 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	JKL	Elliott, Johnson, Martin	35 min
Apr 27, 12:44 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	JKL	Breathitt, Clay, Floyd, Knott, Leslie, Magoffin and 1 more	31 min
Apr 27, 1:12 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	JKL	Floyd, Johnson, Knott, Martin, Pike	63 min
Apr 27, 1:41 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	JKL	Harlan	34 min
Apr 27, 3:46 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	JKL	McCreary	59 min
Apr 27, 4:13 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	JKL	Clay, Knox, Laurel, Whitley	62 min
Apr 27, 5:01 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	JKL	Jackson, Owsley, Rockcastle	59 min
Apr 27, 5:18 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Pulaski, Rockcastle	23 min
Apr 27, 5:38 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	JKL	Pulaski	67 min
Apr 27, 5:39 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	JKL	Pulaski	66 min
Apr 27, 6:12 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	JKL	Rockcastle	63 min
Apr 27, 6:19 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Pulaski	41 min
Apr 27, 7:30 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	JKL	McCreary	60 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Kentucky, 2016 Every special weather statement in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.