Severe Thunderstorm Warning 82, NWS Jackson, KY

829 
WWUS53 KJKL 232123
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
523 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

KYC069-232132-
/O.CAN.KJKL.SV.W.0082.000000T0000Z-160623T2145Z/
FLEMING KY-
523 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN FLEMING COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR EAST CENTRAL
KENTUCKY.

LAT...LON 3819 8365 3817 8364 3819 8363 3818 8348
      3794 8349 3801 8401 3808 8403 3813 8397
      3814 8393 3814 8386 3819 8371
TIME...MOT...LOC 2122Z 274DEG 41KT 3809 8362 

$$

KYC011-165-173-205-232145-
/O.CON.KJKL.SV.W.0082.000000T0000Z-160623T2145Z/
MONTGOMERY KY-MENIFEE KY-ROWAN KY-BATH KY-
523 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM EDT
FOR CENTRAL MONTGOMERY...NORTHERN MENIFEE...SOUTHWESTERN ROWAN AND
SOUTHERN BATH COUNTIES...

AT 522 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER YOUNG
SPRINGS... OR 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OWINGSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 45
MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOUNT STERLING...MOREHEAD...OWINGSVILLE...FRENCHBURG...MARSHALL...
JEFFERSONVILLE...CAMARGO...SALT LICK...LOWER SPENCER...FLAT CREEK...
BOURBON FURNACE...PRESTON...EWINGTON...RAMEY...WALKERS CROSSING...
HOPE...STEPSTONE...PREWITT...COONS STATION AND YALE.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 64 IN EASTERN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
106 AND 133.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO IS NOT
IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF ONE IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A
PLACE OF SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR
SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR EAST CENTRAL
KENTUCKY.

LAT...LON 3819 8365 3817 8364 3819 8363 3818 8348
      3794 8349 3801 8401 3808 8403 3813 8397
      3814 8393 3814 8386 3819 8371
TIME...MOT...LOC 2122Z 274DEG 41KT 3809 8362 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JVM

247 
WWUS53 KJKL 232129
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
529 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

KYC011-165-173-205-232139-
/O.CAN.KJKL.SV.W.0082.000000T0000Z-160623T2145Z/
MONTGOMERY KY-MENIFEE KY-ROWAN KY-BATH KY-
529 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL MONTGOMERY...NORTHERN
MENIFEE...SOUTHWESTERN ROWAN AND SOUTHERN BATH COUNTIES IS
CANCELLED...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.  HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN AND
LIGHTNING IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR EAST CENTRAL
KENTUCKY.

LAT...LON 3819 8365 3817 8364 3819 8363 3818 8348
      3794 8349 3801 8401 3808 8403 3813 8397
      3814 8393 3814 8386 3819 8371
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 275DEG 34KT 3808 8353 

$$

JVM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
330 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1142 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

Current surface analysis across the area features temperatures
warming into the lower 80s and a vague but present outflow
boundary across central eastern Kentucky. As well, a cold front is
present to the northwest and will slowly be making a south and
southeast approach. Clearing skies and increased heating through
the early afternoon hours will allow for rapid destabilization
this afternoon as cells develop ahead of the slowly dropping
southeast cold front. The remnant outflow boundary across the area
will further enhance convection as storms become organized and
produce possible damaging winds and heavy rainfall. As the front
slides south and becomes west to east across the area this
evening, training of storms becomes possible and where repeated
bouts of rain has fallen before, a decent flash flood threat is
valid. Have issued a Flash Flood Watch until 8pm. This may need to
be extended depending on how long the activity lasts into this
evening..

UPDATE Issued at 708 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

Convection that was over ILN and RLX has shifted southeast, with a
area of showers and thunderstorms currently impacting the northern
portion of the CWA. Luckily storms have weakened significantly, so
there is no severe threat at this time. However it could be
putting down some decent rains, which will be something to keep in
mind for any storms that develop or move over the same location
later in the day. Otherwise, forecast seems to be in good shape
this morning. Loaded in the latest observations to make sure the
temp, dew point, and wind forecasts were in line with ongoing
conditions. Grids have been published and sent to NDFD/web, though
no changes are needed to the forecast package at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 403 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

An active start to the period is expected today, thanks to a center
of low pressure currently traveling eastward across Indiana and
Ohio. This will continue on a southeast track through the day,
pulling a cold front southward into the state between 18 and 21Z.
The cold front will then remain in place across the northern half of
the state through at least 6z tonight (Friday) before finally slowly
shifting southward through the southern portion of the CWA through
the day Friday.

Along and just south of the current cold front, a stout area of
convection has set up, currently encompassing much of IN, OH, and
northern WV. This convection is taking a southeastward track,
following the best theta-e advection gradients. Based on the current
radar trends, the current convection may pass just north of the CWA
through the next few hours. However, as the low continues eastward
and the cold front begins to sag farther south as we begin gaining
daytime sunlight and heating, expect pops to begin shifting into our
area. As such, included slight chances over the next couple of
hours, with scattered pops by 12Z, slowly spreading southward
through about noon. Latest hi-res models all seem to agree that
convection will be more scattered in nature as it moves across
eastern KY. However, with decent CAPE throughout the morning/early
afternoon, and stout winds in the low, mid, and upper levels, any of
these storms could still produce some severe potential, mainly in
the form of strong to damaging winds.

Between 18 and 21Z, the cold front will begin its descent into KY.
This will correspond with best peak heating and afternoon
instability. CAPE values will top out between 3.5k and 4.5k j/kg
between 18 and 0z, with LIs still dropping to -10 to -12. DCAPE will
even max out around 1.5k j/kg by 0Z this evening.  This will
therefore be our best chance for seeing more widespread severe
potential, with damaging winds still the main concern. Pops will
increase to numerous along the frontal boundary in our northern CWA
between 18 and 21Z, then slowly spread southeastward throughout the
remainder of the afternoon and evening. Despite the lingering
frontal boundary, the center of low pressure will continue shifting
eastward, robbing best instability from the area for the latter half
of the overnight.  Still a bit concerned, however, about PWAT values
and heavy rainfall through the overnight.

Any storms during the day could put down torrential rainfall, which
may lead to further flooding concerns. In a fortunate note, however,
it looks like during most of the day today, most widespread rains
will mainly affect the northern CWA, which hasn't been quite as
worked over from previous day's storms. However, any training of
storms could quickly cause problems. Unfortunately, PWATS will
actually increase to over 2 inches (nearly 2.5 inches at SME!)
between 0 and 6z this evening according to the latest NAM12
soundings. This is slightly higher than the GFS soundings, but even
this model is still reading nearly 2 inches. Will need to continue
to monitor storms into the overnight for potential flooding
concerns.

For Friday, the cold front will continue to weaken, having little
affect on the state by this point. In fact, strong NW flow will take
hold across much of the CWA north of the boundary, bringing much
drier air into the region, and cutting off any remaining precip
concerns for the day. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than
today with the NW flow in place, but will still achieve the mid and
upper 80s by the afternoon, though with slightly less humidity.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 330 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

Upper level ridge continues to build into the region through the
first part of the forecast period. The next weather maker will be
a weak frontal boundary that progresses SE into the region, and
this will begin increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms
late weekend into the first part of next week. The storms will
wain some as we move into Tuesday, but additional storms are
possible by Thursday as another upper level wave approaches. Model
wise the the spaghetti plot shows that the guidance remains in
good agreement. The upper level high will be well established
across the lower MS River Valley. Guidance remains in good
agreement with the ridging breaking down by mid week. The
breakdown will lead to cooler temperatures by the time we get to
mid and late week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

Left over low level moisture from this mornings complex of
thunderstorms has left some MVFR cigs in place at most TAF sites.
Will maintain those into the early afternoon before new convection
develops with a remnant outflow boundary and a cold front moving
southeast through this evening. This will create some IFR and
below cigs and vis due to thunderstorms and continuing through
03z. Leftover moisture and clearing skies late tonight will then
allow for fog development towards dawn. This should then begin to
clear out after 14z with increased heating through the morning
hours and lifting cigs.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
336 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-104-106>114-119-120-242245-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-
KNOTT-OWSLEY-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...CAMARGO...
JEFFERSONVILLE...MOUNT STERLING...OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...
IRVINE...RAVENNA...CLAY CITY...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...BROADHEAD...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...ANNVILLE...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...
PAINSVILLE...CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...
WHEELWRIGHT...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...HINDMAN...PIPPA PASSES...
BOONEVILLE...INEZ...COAL RUN...ELKHORN CITY...PIKEVILLE...
SOUTH WILLIAMSON
336 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
...TORNADO WATCH 289 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

THESE STORMS MAY ALSO LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING
CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS THAT HAVE RECEIVED REPEATED
ROUNDS OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS WELL...MAINLY
IN THE MORNING ACROSS FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY INSTANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER
OR FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT.

KYZ079-080-083>088-115>118-242245-
PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-PERRY-CLAY-
LESLIE-LETCHER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BURNSIDE...SOMERSET...LONDON...
MONTICELLO...STEARNS...WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...
BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...CUMBERLAND...HARLAN...
HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...JENKINS...WHITESBURG
336 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME
OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS...SMALL
HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

THESE STORMS MAY ALSO LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING
CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS THAT HAVE RECEIVED REPEATED
ROUNDS OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS WELL...MAINLY
IN THE MORNING ACROSS FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY INSTANCES OF FLOODING TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

SHALLENBERGER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
142 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-232200-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...CAMARGO...
JEFFERSONVILLE...MOUNT STERLING...OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...
IRVINE...RAVENNA...CLAY CITY...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...BROADHEAD...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...ANNVILLE...BURNSIDE...SOMERSET...LONDON...
MONTICELLO...STEARNS...WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...
BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...CUMBERLAND...HARLAN...
SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINSVILLE...CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...
PRESTONSBURG...WHEELWRIGHT...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...HINDMAN...
PIPPA PASSES...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...
JENKINS...WHITESBURG...INEZ...COAL RUN...ELKHORN CITY...
PIKEVILLE...SOUTH WILLIAMSON
142 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...

AS TEMPERATURES RISE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE LOW 90S...THE
COMBINATION OF HIGH HUMIDITY WILL CREATE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE
95 TO 100 RANGE. LIMIT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS AFTERNOON...DRINK
PLENTY OF WATER...AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE. NEVER
LEAVE CHILDREN OR PETS INSIDE A VEHICLE.

SHALLENBERGER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
146 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

KYZ052-104-106-231815-
ROWAN-ELLIOTT-MORGAN-
146 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ROWAN...ELLIOTT...AND MORGAN
COUNTIES...

AT 145 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER NEWFOUNDLAND...OR NEAR
GRAYSON LAKE STATE PARK...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOREHEAD...SANDY HOOK...MINOR...CHRISTY...WAGNER STORE...LYTTEN...
NEWFOUNDLAND...CLEARFIELD...HAMM...ELLIOTTVILLE...BRUIN...
LITTLE SANDY...VALE...PELFREY...CRIX...LICK FORK...BLAIRS MILLS...
WAGNER...CRANEY AND BANGOR.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3818 8305 3820 8304 3821 8301 3817 8298
      3818 8292 3811 8289 3809 8293 3805 8295
      3803 8300 3805 8345 3818 8348 3821 8328
      3819 8326 3819 8324 3822 8322 3823 8310
TIME...MOT...LOC 1745Z 269DEG 27KT 3816 8306

ABE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
354 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

KYZ044-052-232030-
ROWAN-FLEMING-
354 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ROWAN...FLEMING...

AT 354 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER WALLINGFORD...OR NEAR
FLEMINGSBURG...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FLEMINGSBURG...POPLAR PLAINS...PLUMMERS LANDING...CRAINTOWN...
NEPTON...ELIZAVILLE...GODDARD...PECKS RIDGE...GATES...WALTZ...
FOXPORT...MUSES MILLS...HALDEMAN...WALLINGFORD...CRANSTON...TILTON...
COWAN...MOUNT CARMEL...TRIPLETT AND EWING.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 64 IN EASTERN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
142 AND 148.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR EAST CENTRAL
KENTUCKY.

&&

LAT...LON 3849 8359 3843 8358 3840 8348 3838 8345
      3840 8342 3839 8340 3832 8336 3832 8334
      3823 8331 3821 8328 3835 8386 3836 8388
      3835 8389 3837 8390 3837 8392 3846 8386
      3853 8364
TIME...MOT...LOC 1954Z 280DEG 44KT 3841 8361

JVM