Severe Thunderstorm Warning 114, NWS Jackson, KY

093 
WWUS53 KJKL 141902
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
302 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

KYC199-203-141915-
/O.CON.KJKL.SV.W.0114.000000T0000Z-160714T1915Z/
PULASKI KY-ROCKCASTLE KY-
302 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM EDT
FOR CENTRAL PULASKI AND SOUTHWESTERN ROCKCASTLE COUNTIES...

AT 301 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER BOBTOWN...OR 9
MILES NORTHEAST OF SOMERSET...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOMERSET...MOUNT VERNON...SCIENCE HILL...PULASKI COUNTY PARK...
MARETBURG...OTTOWA...WABP...NAOMI...HIATT...BENT...VALLEY OAK...
WELLHOPE...SOMERSET PULASKI AIRPORT...QUAIL...HANSFORD...GRADE...
LAKE LINVILLE...ELIHU...LEVEL GREEN AND SHOPVILLE.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 KENTUCKY HIGHWAY 80 IN PULASKI COUNTY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 17 AND
 40.
 LOUIS B. NUNN PARKWAY 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.
LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3725 8471 3736 8456 3733 8451 3739 8448
      3744 8436 3720 8427 3720 8428 3718 8427
      3717 8430 3715 8429 3712 8430 3712 8428
      3698 8480 3701 8486 3710 8473
TIME...MOT...LOC 1901Z 250DEG 31KT 3721 8452 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JP

164 
WWUS53 KJKL 141915
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
315 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

KYC199-203-141924-
/O.EXP.KJKL.SV.W.0114.000000T0000Z-160714T1915Z/
PULASKI KY-ROCKCASTLE KY-
315 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL PULASKI AND
SOUTHWESTERN ROCKCASTLE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 315 PM EDT...
        
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW WARNING
CRITERIA. THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
JACKSON KY.

LAT...LON 3725 8471 3736 8456 3733 8451 3739 8448
      3744 8436 3720 8427 3720 8428 3718 8427
      3717 8430 3715 8429 3712 8430 3712 8428
      3698 8480 3701 8486 3710 8473
TIME...MOT...LOC 1912Z 250DEG 31KT 3721 8452 

$$

JMW

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
221 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 210 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

Shower and thunderstorm activity should continue to pick up over
the next few hours as we approach peak heating. Outflow and
differential heating boundaries should combine with an
approaching shortwave for scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms over the next 3 to 6 hours. Instability parameters
remain favorable for an increase in coverage. A few strong to
locally severe thunderstorms remain possible during peak heating
and any storms could produce locally heavy rain.

UPDATE Issued at 1120 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

The region is currently receiving a reasonable amount of heating
in between departing convection from NE TN into southern WV. An
outflow boundary has moved into the northern part of the CWA and
then arcs into Central KY and intersects with two other outflows.
One leading outflow extends down near the I 65 corridor and
another is advancing east toward the I-65 corridor as well and
has moved east of an OWB to CKV line. This convection or
successive generations of convection and possibly new development
appears destined mainly toward the SW part of the CWA in
particular the TN border and Lake Cumberland/Cumberland Valley
Regions. Current Mesoanalysis has modest low level lapse rates
near 7C and these may steepen more with daytime heating and
mixing. Mid level lapse rates are more marginal generally less
than 6C and may only increase slightly through the afternoon
hours.

Convection initiation and progression should be mesoscale driven
for the most part this afternoon into evening with the outflow
boundaries and weak waves in westerly flow playing a role. A wave
now moving into Western KY should also serve to increase coverage
during peak heating. Downdraft CAPE is also expected to increase
during the afternoon and could near 1000 J/KG and CAPE should be
in the 1500 to 2500 J/KG or moderately unstable. PW is also in the
1.6 to 1.8 inch range and should remain near these levels if not
increase slightly during the afternoon as the wave approaches. The
mean flow is in the 15 to 20 KT range so storms will have some
movement, but any outflow, moisture, or differential heating
boundaries that become oriented more east to west will have to be
monitored for the threat of locally heavy rain. The region is
currently in a slight risk of Severe Thunderstorms and some pulse
convection could become strong to locally severe wind gusts
possibly during the most intense convection.

UPDATE Issued at 707 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

A few showers and storms have already began popping across the
area this morning. This activity will gradually increase in
coverage and intensity through out the day, with the best rain
chances occurring this afternoon as a front passes through.
Ingested the latest obs into the forecast to establish new trends,
but no other changes to the forecast were required at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 301 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be in the forecast today
through Friday, as a warm and muggy air mass remains in place
across the region. The storms we experience today will fire up in
the vicinity of an area of low pressure and its associated frontal
boundaries, all of which are currently situated over the south
central plains and Ozark region and northeastward into the Great
Lakes. The initial storms will travel eastward early this
morning, and should reach eastern Kentucky by late this morning.
The precipitation will become most widespread this afternoon and
this evening, as a cold front dives southward out of the Great
Lakes region and across the Ohio and Tennessee River valleys.
With any thunderstorm will come the potential for cloud to ground
lightning, gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall.

Temperatures will continue to run at or slightly above normal
today through Friday, with highs each day reaching the upper 80s
to around 90 and in the mid to upper 80s respectively. Overnight
lows are expected to be quite balmy as well, with readings in the
upper 60s on tap.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 410 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

The models are in pretty good agreement aloft through the extended
portion of the forecast. They all agree that eastern troughing
will retreat from Kentucky through the weekend while a strong
ridge consolidates and builds over the Southern Plains. Before the
heights start to rise, though, a mid level shortwave and its
attendant energy will pass through eastern Kentucky Friday night
into Saturday. Following this, the higher heights will dominate
the pattern into the Bluegrass State through Monday. However, as
the 5h ridge peaks around 600 decameters over the Arkansas River
downstream troughing will drop through the Great Lakes and into
the Ohio Valley by Tuesday morning with plenty of energy poised to
move through the area and into the Central Appalachians Tuesday.
Heights will rebound into Wednesday as the ridge's influence
re-exerts itself over the JKL CWA. Given the general model
agreement, have favored a blended solution through the extended
portion of the forecast with above average confidence in the
broader trends.

Sensible weather will feature a potentially wet end to the week
and start of the weekend as a weak area of low pressure moves
through the area and off to the East Coast by Saturday evening.
SFC high pressure, with some assistance from the ridging aloft,
will then make for quiet and warm weather for the area through
Monday. We will then look for a cold front to drop into eastern
Kentucky from Monday night into Tuesday with showers and
thunderstorms, potentially strong, a good bet. Dry weather should
then return for Wednesday as high pressure moves in at the SFC and
ridging returns aloft.

Primarily made adjustments to the CR extended init related to
anticipated ridge and valley temperature splits each night along
with enhancing the diurnal nature of the hourly PoP and Sky grids
throughout the extended forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

Shower and thunderstorm activity should peak at the TAF sites
over the first 4 to 8 hours of the period, though uncertainty
remains with any additional convection behind this in zonal flow
with weak passing disturbances and a cold front to enter the OH
Valley. VFR conditions should prevail at the taf sites through 6Z,
except when a shower and storms moves past, during which time MVFR
or even IFR conditions and possibly brief drops to near airport
mins in locations that experience a direct impact from the
strongest showers and any thunderstorms. At this point, confidence
is highest that SME would be affected around or by 19Z and LOZ by
or around 20Z. SYM, LOZ, and SJS will also experience at least
thunderstorms in the vicinity during the first 6 hours of the
period. Any thunderstorms could produce gusts of 20 to 30KT or
locally higher and brief torrential downpours. Isolated to
scattered convection will remain possible from 2Z through the end
of the period. Stratus and or fog could also develop where the
heaviest rain occurs and this seems most probable at LOZ, SME, and
JKL. Any reductions to MVFR or lower should improve between 11Z
and 18Z.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
957 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-151700-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...CAMARGO...
JEFFERSONVILLE...MOUNT STERLING...OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...
IRVINE...RAVENNA...CLAY CITY...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...BROADHEAD...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...ANNVILLE...BURNSIDE...SOMERSET...LONDON...
MONTICELLO...STEARNS...WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...
BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...CUMBERLAND...HARLAN...
SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINSVILLE...CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...
PRESTONSBURG...WHEELWRIGHT...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...HINDMAN...
PIPPA PASSES...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...
JENKINS...WHITESBURG...INEZ...COAL RUN...ELKHORN CITY...
PIKEVILLE...SOUTH WILLIAMSON
957 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS...ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING...FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING COULD BE
STRONG...MAINLY NEAR THE TN AND VA BORDERS. THESE STORMS ON FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY EVENING COULD PRODUCE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY INSTANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER
OR FLASH FLOODING TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AR/JMW/JP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
228 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

KYZ079-083-141915-
WAYNE-PULASKI-
228 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WAYNE...PULASKI...

AT 227 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR LIBERTY TO CAINS STORE TO NEAR FAUBUSH TO NEAR
CABELL...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS ALONG
WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOMERSET...MONTICELLO...SCIENCE HILL...BURNSIDE...
PULASKI COUNTY PARK...NAOMI...FRAZER...BENT...MILL SPRINGS...
FAUBUSH...VALLEY OAK...SOMERSET PULASKI AIRPORT...MAGNUM...KIDDER...
GENERAL BURNSIDE S.P....GRADE...STEUBENVILLE...QUINTON...
ELIHU AND SHOPVILLE.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 KENTUCKY HIGHWAY 80 IN PULASKI COUNTY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 17 AND
 32.
 LOUIS B. NUNN PARKWAY

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...WHICH WILL
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE
STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3692 8496 3696 8494 3695 8490 3700 8484
      3705 8491 3712 8490 3736 8456 3734 8452
      3719 8441 3691 8452 3683 8506 3686 8506
TIME...MOT...LOC 1827Z 250DEG 16KT 3726 8490 3713 8485 3709 8487 3686
8501

JP