Alert archive / Kentucky / Flash Flood Watches in 2016

Flash Flood Watch 3, NWS Jackson, KY

May 12, 201633 counties in Kentucky

NWS Jackson, KY issued this flash flood watch at May 12, 2016, 3:24 AM EDT for 33 counties in Kentucky. It took effect at May 12, 2016, 12:00 PM EDT. It was in force for 10 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
May 12, 2016, 3:24 AM EDT (07:24 UTC)
In effect from
May 12, 2016, 12:00 PM EDT
Expired
May 12, 2016, 10:24 PM EDT
In force
10 hr
Issued by
NWS Jackson, KY
Flood severity
None
All 33 counties

Bath County, KY, Bell County, KY, Breathitt County, KY, Clay County, KY, Elliott County, KY, Estill County, KY, Fleming County, KY, Floyd County, KY, Harlan County, KY, Jackson County, KY, Johnson County, KY, Knott County, KY, Knox County, KY, Laurel County, KY, Lee County, KY, Leslie County, KY, Letcher County, KY, Magoffin County, KY, Martin County, KY, McCreary County, KY, Menifee County, KY, Montgomery County, KY, Morgan County, KY, Owsley County, KY, Perry County, KY, Pike County, KY, Powell County, KY, Pulaski County, KY, Rockcastle County, KY, Rowan County, KY, Wayne County, KY, Whitley County, KY, Wolfe County, KY

The radar

The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 26 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:25 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 00:00Z, 7.4 hours before the alert went out and 218 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Cncnati-Daytn, OH at 00:00Z on 2016-05-12Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 18 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Cncnati-Daytn, OH at 00:00Z on 2016-05-12The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 61 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
18 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-123 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1437 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
24 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
61 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
155 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
-0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

501 
WGUS63 KJKL 120724
FFAJKL

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
324 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016

...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

.A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN KENTUCKY. ANY STORMS THAT PASS
REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
FLASH FLOODING. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-121600-
/O.NEW.KJKL.FF.A.0003.160512T1600Z-160513T0800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...CAMARGO...
JEFFERSONVILLE...MOUNT STERLING...OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...
IRVINE...RAVENNA...CLAY CITY...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...BROADHEAD...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...ANNVILLE...BURNSIDE...SOMERSET...LONDON...
MONTICELLO...STEARNS...WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...
BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...CUMBERLAND...HARLAN...
SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINSVILLE...CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...
PRESTONSBURG...WHEELWRIGHT...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...HINDMAN...
PIPPA PASSES...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...
JENKINS...WHITESBURG...INEZ...COAL RUN...ELKHORN CITY...
PIKEVILLE...SOUTH WILLIAMSON
324 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY... 
  NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST 
  KENTUCKY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN EAST CENTRAL 
  KENTUCKY...BATH...ELLIOTT...ESTILL...FLEMING...MENIFEE... 
  MONTGOMERY...POWELL AND ROWAN. IN NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...JOHNSON 
  AND MARTIN. IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...LAUREL...MCCREARY... 
  PULASKI...ROCKCASTLE...WAYNE AND WHITLEY. IN SOUTHEAST 
  KENTUCKY...BELL...BREATHITT...CLAY...FLOYD...HARLAN... 
  JACKSON...KNOTT...KNOX...LEE...LESLIE...LETCHER...MAGOFFIN... 
  MORGAN...OWSLEY...PERRY...PIKE AND WOLFE. 

* FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT

* THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
  ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
  PASS REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
  PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING. 

* FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...
  ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS AND AT LOCATIONS THAT HAVE SEEN
  SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

GEOGERIAN
3 follow-up statements
610 
WGUS63 KJKL 121605
FFAJKL

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1205 PM EDT THU MAY 12 2016

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-130000-
/O.CON.KJKL.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-160513T0800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...CAMARGO...
JEFFERSONVILLE...MOUNT STERLING...OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...
IRVINE...RAVENNA...CLAY CITY...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...BROADHEAD...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...ANNVILLE...BURNSIDE...SOMERSET...LONDON...
MONTICELLO...STEARNS...WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...
BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...CUMBERLAND...HARLAN...
SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINSVILLE...CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...
PRESTONSBURG...WHEELWRIGHT...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...HINDMAN...
PIPPA PASSES...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...
JENKINS...WHITESBURG...INEZ...COAL RUN...ELKHORN CITY...
PIKEVILLE...SOUTH WILLIAMSON
1205 PM EDT THU MAY 12 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...SOUTH 
  CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING AREAS...IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY...BATH...ELLIOTT... 
  ESTILL...FLEMING...MENIFEE...MONTGOMERY...POWELL AND ROWAN. IN 
  NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...JOHNSON AND MARTIN. IN SOUTH CENTRAL 
  KENTUCKY...LAUREL...MCCREARY...PULASKI...ROCKCASTLE...WAYNE 
  AND WHITLEY. IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...BELL...BREATHITT...CLAY...
   FLOYD...HARLAN...JACKSON...KNOTT...KNOX...LEE...LESLIE... 
  LETCHER...MAGOFFIN...MORGAN...OWSLEY...PERRY...PIKE AND WOLFE. 

* THROUGH LATE TONIGHT

* THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
  ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT PASS REPEATEDLY
  OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH
  FLOODING.

* FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL BE POSSIBLE... 
  ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS AND AT LOCATIONS THAT HAVE SEEN 
  SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$
996 
WGUS63 KJKL 121942
FFAJKL

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
342 PM EDT THU MAY 12 2016

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-130400-
/O.CON.KJKL.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-160513T0800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...CAMARGO...
JEFFERSONVILLE...MOUNT STERLING...OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...
IRVINE...RAVENNA...CLAY CITY...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...BROADHEAD...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...ANNVILLE...BURNSIDE...SOMERSET...LONDON...
MONTICELLO...STEARNS...WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...
BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...CUMBERLAND...HARLAN...
SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINSVILLE...CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...
PRESTONSBURG...WHEELWRIGHT...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...HINDMAN...
PIPPA PASSES...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...
JENKINS...WHITESBURG...INEZ...COAL RUN...ELKHORN CITY...
PIKEVILLE...SOUTH WILLIAMSON
342 PM EDT THU MAY 12 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...SOUTH
  CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...INCLUDING THE
  FOLLOWING AREAS...IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY...BATH...ELLIOTT...
  ESTILL...FLEMING...MENIFEE...MONTGOMERY...POWELL AND ROWAN. IN
  NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...JOHNSON AND MARTIN. IN SOUTH CENTRAL
  KENTUCKY...LAUREL...MCCREARY...PULASKI...ROCKCASTLE...WAYNE AND
  WHITLEY. IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...BELL...BREATHITT...CLAY... 
  FLOYD...HARLAN...JACKSON...KNOTT...KNOX...LEE...LESLIE...
  LETCHER...MAGOFFIN...MORGAN...OWSLEY...PERRY...PIKE AND WOLFE.

* THROUGH LATE TONIGHT

* THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
  ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT PASS REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS
  WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING.

* FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL BE POSSIBLE... 
  ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS AND AT LOCATIONS THAT HAVE SEEN 
  SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$
792 
WGUS63 KJKL 130224
FFAJKL

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1024 PM EDT THU MAY 12 2016

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-130330-
/O.CAN.KJKL.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-160513T0800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...CAMARGO...
JEFFERSONVILLE...MOUNT STERLING...OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...
IRVINE...RAVENNA...CLAY CITY...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...BROADHEAD...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...ANNVILLE...BURNSIDE...SOMERSET...LONDON...
MONTICELLO...STEARNS...WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...
BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...CUMBERLAND...HARLAN...
SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINSVILLE...CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...
PRESTONSBURG...WHEELWRIGHT...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...HINDMAN...
PIPPA PASSES...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...
JENKINS...WHITESBURG...INEZ...COAL RUN...ELKHORN CITY...
PIKEVILLE...SOUTH WILLIAMSON
1024 PM EDT THU MAY 12 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DIMINISHED...ENDING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood watch went out at May 12, 2:24 AM EDT, 1 hour earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 12, 2:24 AM EDT, 1 hour before
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
224 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 224 AM EDT Thu May 12 2016

The complex of storms is waning quickly across the area as the
outflow has worked to the east and southeast. The IR satellite
continues to show a good warming trend to the cloud tops upstream.
Have freshened up the pops to account for the latest radar trends,
generally shrinking the precipitation shield and not advancing it
much farther to the east. Also added some fog, given the thinning
clouds overnight, recent rainfall, and light winds.

UPDATE Issued at 1128 PM EDT Wed May 11 2016

Showers and thunderstorms are bearing down on us from the west.
Instability is waning and shear is weak across eastern
Kentucky, so would expect a gradual diminishment; however, the
leading edge outflow has been putting out winds in the 30 to 40
mph range, and where the outflow has been intersecting new
development, winds have been closer to 50 mph at times. This will
continue to push east and slowly fizzle with time. Rainfall
amounts have not been excessive with most of this activity given
the progressive nature; however, will have to keep an eye on
upstream development. In general, the IR cloud tops have been
warming so this bodes well for now.

UPDATE Issued at 744 PM EDT Wed May 11 2016

Shower and thunderstorm complex upstream has morphed into a bowing
line of thunderstorms and now bearing down on Louisville. The
watch continues to be expanded southeastward and may eventually be
needed for portion of eastern Kentucky. Very moist air continues
to feed this complex with dewpoints into the mid to upper 60s
across much of central Kentucky, even extending into a portion of
eastern Kentucky. This should sustain this system as it drops
southeast over the next 3 to 6 hours. Looks like right
now, activity should reach our western most counties shortly after
10 pm and reach far southeast KY by 2 am. Looks like the
shower/storm chances should be done by 5 am for most of the area.
Updated pops to increase them to categorical and update
temperatures to keep them a bit higher until precipitation arrives
later on.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through THURSDAY night)
Issued at 320 PM EDT Wed May 11 2016

A fairly mild and somewhat muggy day out across eastern Kentucky
today with dewpoints running in the mid 60s. A convergence zone
over northeast kentucky has helped to form some isolated showers
and these have been generally lifting northward. This will pave
the way for a quiet evening. However, weather will turn more
active heading into tonight. a vort max passing from Missouri into
Illinois has already helped to develop an intense complex of
showers and storms. HRRR/ARW/NMM all have this complex initialized
well and bring this across southern/central Illinois, southern
Indiana, and into central/eastern Kentucky tonight. Looks like
based on current trends and timing, complex should arrive shortly
after 10 pm. Unlike last night, instability is already in place,
but shear is a bit weaker. Thus, question is can any of this storm
strength hold together as it drops into our area despite the
weaker shear. Overall, momentum and the little shear there is may
be enough, so will go with a period of higher pops overnight as
this complex works southeast through the area. One hour flash
flood guidance remains very low (generally 0.75-1.25") areawide.
While any storms should move through fairly quickly, potential for
high precipitation rates may allow this guidance to be reached.
However, given the low confidence on storm strength and evolution,
will hold off on a flash flood watch for now. May consider a short
fused watch a bit later if things come together upstream for more
of a heavy rain event.

Complex of showers and storms should exit by daybreak tomorrow. We
may see another lull in activity tomorrow, which will allow highs
to reach the low 80s. A cold front advancing in from the northwest
will then push across Kentucky THURSDAY evening. Should be able to
destabilize quickly by the evening. While better shear will remain
north, there should be just enough to allow for some storm
organization. Looks like the main threats would be large hail and
damaging winds with the low level shear not sufficient enough to
support a tornado threat. We are now in a slight risk of severe
storms issued by the Storm Prediction Center. Will continue to
highlight the severe risk in the HWO. Shower and thunderstorm
chances will decrease as we head into the overnight and predawn
hours of FRIDAY as the front exits southeast. Drier and much
cooler air will also spread into the area by FRIDAY morning

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY through WEDNESDAY)
Issued at 336 PM EDT Wed May 11 2016

A strong upper level low will be stationed over Manitoba starting
THURSDAY morning, slowing rotating and shifting eastward across
Ontario through the weekend. This will place a overall troughing
pattern across much of the eastern conus. Gradients will tighten
during the weekend as the low becomes stronger and more wrapped up
while rotating in place. The upper level flow will finally start to
become more progressive late SUNDAY as the upper level low shifts
eastward, though there is some disagreement at this point between
the models on the exact location and strength of the upper level
low. Regardless, a more zonal pattern will take hold in addition to
lessoning pressure gradients. Some shortwave activity will likely
still affect the region through the first half of the week despite
this zonal flow, though given the lack of model agreement at this
time will likely rely on a blend for sensible weather to end out the
extended.

Speaking of sensible weather, precip will be likely through much of
the extended period with the above mentioned pattern in place. After
a brief break during the day FRIDAY under post-frontal dry NW flow,
a cold front will dive southeast from the surface low also over
Canada. This boundary will traverse Kentucky FRIDAY night and
SATURDAY afternoon, before becoming stationary to our south,
oscillating slightly northward and southward. This could cause some
lingering pops across the southern CWA SATURDAY afternoon through
MONDAY. The boundary will then shift north as a warm front across
Kentucky, pulling higher pops from south to north through TUESDAY.
Surface low pressure will then quickly escape eastward from the
plains in conjunction with a passing shortwave. Only a few hours
after the warm front sweeps across the state, the surface low and
associated cold front will push eastward as well through the day
WEDNESDAY.

As for temperatures, a slight cool down is expected for FRIDAY due
to post frontal (from the near term) drier NW flow taking hold
across the region. Afternoon temperatures will only reach the low
70s. Overnight lows between FRIDAY and SATURDAY will likely drop
fairly significantly to near 50 degrees with mostly clear skies in
place for the first part of the evening. Temperatures will continue
a cooling trend through the weekend with the passing of the second
cold front, with highs in the 60s expected both SATURDAY and SUNDAY.
Temperatures will then slowly modify as the upper level troughing
pattern shifts to our east and zonal flow takes hold. Highs around
70 degrees is forecast for highs on MONDAY, increasing to the mid
70s by WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 224 AM EDT Thu May 12 2016

Expect MVFR conditions associated with any passing thunderstorms
over the next hour or so, before the precipitation gradually
diminishes across eastern Kentucky. Ceilings will remain VFR, with
some patchy MVFR fog developing in the valleys through dawn. The
fog could become locally dense, but do not have enough confidence
to include at LOZ and SME for now. Once the fog burns off this
morning, expect VFR conditions until a cold front moves in from
the west later this afternoon and early Thursday evening. Showers
and thunderstorms will likely form into a line and head east, with
MVFR or IFR ceilings and visibilities potentially.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
Hazardous weather outlook, May 12, 2:27 AM EDT, 57 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
227 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-121100-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...CAMARGO...
JEFFERSONVILLE...MOUNT STERLING...OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...
IRVINE...RAVENNA...CLAY CITY...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...BROADHEAD...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...ANNVILLE...BURNSIDE...SOMERSET...LONDON...
MONTICELLO...STEARNS...WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...
BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...CUMBERLAND...HARLAN...
SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINSVILLE...CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...
PRESTONSBURG...WHEELWRIGHT...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...HINDMAN...
PIPPA PASSES...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...
JENKINS...WHITESBURG...INEZ...COAL RUN...ELKHORN CITY...
PIKEVILLE...SOUTH WILLIAMSON
227 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG
COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE...WITH VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO LESS
THAN A QUARTER OF A MILE AT TIMES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE MAIN
THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY WIND DAMAGE OR FLOODING TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON.

KAS/GEOGERIAN

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 11, 11:52 PM EDT, 3 hours 32 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1152 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016

KYZ111-112-114-115-120430-
PERRY-LEE-OWSLEY-BREATHITT-
1152 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PERRY...LEE...OWSLEY...
AND BREATHITT COUNTIES...

AT 1151 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER SCOVILLE...OR OVER
BOONEVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JACKSON...BOONEVILLE...BUCKHORN...CROCKETTSVILLE...TAFF...LEROSE...
IDA MAY...BANFORD...CANOE...COPLAND...VANCLEVE...HOWARD CREEK...
TRAVELLERS REST...VALJEAN...YEADON...WHICK...OAKDALE...GOBBARD...
STURGEON AND WOLF COAL.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...WHICH WILL
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3733 8363 3736 8365 3736 8367 3734 8368
      3734 8373 3735 8380 3737 8381 3752 8383
      3765 8340 3732 8335
TIME...MOT...LOC 0351Z 260DEG 16KT 3745 8372

JP
Special weather statement, May 12, 12:02 AM EDT, 3 hours 22 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1202 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016

KYZ050-051-058>060-069-079-080-083>087-106-108-111-112-114>117-
120430-
JACKSON-LAUREL-KNOX-LEE-WHITLEY-WOLFE-BATH-ESTILL-BELL-LESLIE-
BREATHITT-WAYNE-PERRY-MONTGOMERY-OWSLEY-MENIFEE-MORGAN-POWELL-CLAY-
PULASKI-MCCREARY-
1202 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT JACKSON...LAUREL...
KNOX...LEE...WHITLEY...WOLFE...BATH...ESTILL...BELL...LESLIE...
BREATHITT...WAYNE...PERRY...MONTGOMERY...OWSLEY...MENIFEE...MORGAN...
POWELL...CLAY...PULASKI...AND MCCREARY COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 AM EDT...

AT 1202 AM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM JEFFERSONVILLE TO NEAR MOUNT OLIVE TO MILL POND TO
PERKINS TO NEAR BLUE HERON...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LONDON...MOUNT STERLING...MONTICELLO...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...
STANTON...JACKSON...PINEVILLE...BEATTYVILLE...MANCHESTER...MCKEE...
FRENCHBURG...CAMPTON...HYDEN...BOONEVILLE...WHITLEY CITY...SIMPSON...
JEFFERSONVILLE...CAMARGO AND CLAY CITY.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 BERT T. COMBS MOUNTAIN PARKWAY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 13 AND 63.
 HAL ROGERS PARKWAY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 54.
 INTERSTATE 75 IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND
48.
 KENTUCKY HIGHWAY 80 IN LAUREL COUNTY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 2 AND 11.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 25 EAST IN BELL COUNTY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 5 AND 18.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 25 EAST IN KNOX COUNTY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 26.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 25 EAST IN LAUREL COUNTY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 2.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 8475 3680 8498 3696 8445 3737 8405
      3768 8395 3804 8399 3809 8347 3805 8350
      3802 8348 3804 8343 3774 8325 3768 8326
      3765 8319 3756 8314 3715 8332 3660 8374
TIME...MOT...LOC 0402Z 302DEG 30KT 3799 8383 3763 8369 3724 8372 3679
8406 3661 8460

JP
Special weather statement, May 12, 12:25 AM EDT, 2 hours 59 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1225 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016

KYZ051-052-060-104-106-108-109-112-113-120500-
ROWAN-KNOTT-ELLIOTT-WOLFE-BATH-MENIFEE-MORGAN-MAGOFFIN-BREATHITT-
1225 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ROWAN...KNOTT...
ELLIOTT...WOLFE...BATH...MENIFEE...MORGAN...MAGOFFIN...AND
BREATHITT COUNTIES...

AT 1225 AM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM YOUNG SPRINGS TO TOLIVER TO NEAR CURT...AND MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOREHEAD...WEST LIBERTY...JACKSON...SALYERSVILLE...SANDY HOOK...
FRENCHBURG...CAMPTON...MARSHALL...MASON...SIMPSON...HENRY...LEWIS...
WELLINGTON...SALT LICK...SEWELL...BROWNLOW...GORDON FORD...LANE...
STOLL AND EVANSTON.

THIS INCLUDES BERT T. COMBS MOUNTAIN PARKWAY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 45
AND 76.

&&

LAT...LON 3787 8299 3786 8300 3781 8298 3742 8296
      3743 8320 3744 8321 3743 8323 3744 8355
      3746 8355 3749 8358 3763 8352 3765 8355
      3780 8353 3813 8370 3823 8331 3819 8327
      3819 8324 3825 8319
TIME...MOT...LOC 0425Z 261DEG 27KT 3808 8360 3781 8345 3751 8343

JP
Special weather statement, May 12, 12:29 AM EDT, 2 hours 55 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1229 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016

KYZ086-088-112>118-120500-
PERRY-KNOX-OWSLEY-KNOTT-LETCHER-LESLIE-HARLAN-BREATHITT-CLAY-
1229 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PERRY...KNOX...
OWSLEY...KNOTT...LETCHER...LESLIE...HARLAN...BREATHITT...CLAY...

AT 1229 AM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM CANOE TO SHOAL TO EROSE...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HAZARD...HINDMAN...HYDEN...EVARTS...VICCO...BUCKHORN...DALEY...
DIABLOCK...NED...WENDOVER...COPLAND...MOSLEY BEND...SPRUCE PINE...
EROSE...ELIC...MOZELLE...HOSKINSTON...AGES...PANCO AND FREW.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 HAL ROGERS PARKWAY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 23 AND 59.
 KENTUCKY HIGHWAY 80 IN KNOTT COUNTY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 11.
 KENTUCKY HIGHWAY 80 IN PERRY COUNTY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 9 AND 15.

&&

LAT...LON 3690 8350 3691 8349 3694 8351 3695 8358
      3695 8359 3693 8357 3692 8358 3696 8382
      3747 8357 3743 8296 3728 8296 3684 8317
TIME...MOT...LOC 0429Z 270DEG 30KT 3744 8342 3726 8346 3695 8363

JP
Special weather statement, May 12, 12:31 AM EDT, 2 hours 53 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1231 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016

KYZ085>088-120500-
KNOX-WHITLEY-BELL-HARLAN-
1231 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016

...GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT KNOX...WHITLEY...BELL...AND HARLAN COUNTIES THROUGH 1 AM
EDT...

AT 1230 AM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM FIELD TO CLEAR CREEK SPRINGS TO PRUDEN TO 7 MILES
SOUTH OF LOT...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HARLAN...PINEVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...LOYALL...EVARTS...WALLINS CREEK...
SUNSHINE...SMITH...CALVIN...STONY FORK JUNCTION...PONZA...
BRUSH CREEK...TWAY...ARTEMUS...EROSE...GRAYS KNOB...HUTCH...
PEEPACE STORE...KENVIR AND AGES.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 75 IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 5.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 25 EAST IN BELL COUNTY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 18.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 25 EAST IN KNOX COUNTY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 8.

&&

LAT...LON 3659 8418 3659 8422 3662 8425 3670 8400
      3680 8386 3697 8382 3692 8350 3690 8351
      3688 8346 3689 8341 3691 8340 3687 8315
      3674 8320 3667 8343 3667 8353 3662 8364
      3658 8369
TIME...MOT...LOC 0430Z 308DEG 34KT 3689 8360 3672 8373 3660 8389 3649
8412

JP
Special weather statement, May 12, 12:56 AM EDT, 2 hours 28 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1256 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016

KYZ087-088-109-110-112-113-115-117-118-120-120600-
FLOYD-PERRY-KNOTT-LETCHER-BELL-LESLIE-HARLAN-MAGOFFIN-BREATHITT-PIKE-
1256 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016

...GUSTY WINDS IN ADVANCE OF A LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT FLOYD...PERRY...KNOTT...LETCHER...
BELL...LESLIE...HARLAN...MAGOFFIN...BREATHITT...AND PIKE COUNTIES...

AT 1254 AM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM HENDRICKS TO DICE TO BLEDSOE TO NEAR MIDDLESBORO...AND
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...ESPECIALLY
ON RIDGETOPS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PIKEVILLE...HAZARD...PRESTONSBURG...WHITESBURG...HARLAN...
PINEVILLE...HINDMAN...HYDEN...MIDDLESBORO...LETCHER...ESTILL...
BATH...CUMBERLAND...JENKINS...COAL RUN VILLAGE...LOYALL...
ELKHORN CITY...EVARTS...WHEELWRIGHT AND FLEMING-NEON.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 HAL ROGERS PARKWAY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 45 AND 59.
 KENTUCKY HIGHWAY 80 IN FLOYD COUNTY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 14.
 KENTUCKY HIGHWAY 80 IN KNOTT COUNTY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 20.
 KENTUCKY HIGHWAY 80 IN PERRY COUNTY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 9 AND 15.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 119 IN PIKE COUNTY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 12...AND
NEAR MILE MARKER 18.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 23 IN FLOYD COUNTY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 16.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 23 IN LETCHER COUNTY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 7.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 23 IN PIKE COUNTY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 32.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 25 EAST IN BELL COUNTY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 16.

&&

LAT...LON 3659 8393 3662 8393 3695 8355 3694 8351
      3742 8333 3773 8326 3759 8224 3733 8226
      3727 8235 3712 8272 3705 8272 3698 8287
      3693 8286 3688 8289 3685 8307 3674 8314
      3667 8343 3667 8353 3658 8369
TIME...MOT...LOC 0454Z 292DEG 28KT 3768 8314 3735 8322 3691 8335 3656
8372

JP

The office that day

Everything else NWS Jackson, KY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 11, 10:54 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementJKLEstill, Jackson, Rockcastle36 min
May 11, 11:26 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJKLEstill, Jackson, Lee, Owsley34 min
May 11, 11:27 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementJKLClay, Estill, Jackson, Laurel, Lee, McCreary and 5 more33 min
May 11, 11:52 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementJKLOwsley38 min
May 11, 11:58 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJKLBreathitt, Lee, Owsley, Perry32 min
May 12, 12:02 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementJKLBell, Breathitt, Clay, Jackson, Knox, Laurel and 10 more28 min
May 12, 12:25 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementJKLBreathitt, Magoffin, Menifee, Morgan, Wolfe35 min
May 12, 12:29 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementJKLClay, Harlan, Leslie, Perry31 min
May 12, 12:31 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementJKLBell, Harlan29 min
May 12, 12:56 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementJKLBell, Floyd, Harlan, Knott, Leslie, Letcher and 3 more64 min
May 12, 1:03 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryJKLJackson, Pulaski, Rockcastle117 min
May 12, 1:29 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryJKLLaurel, Pulaski2 hr
May 12, 2:18 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementJKLOwsley27 min
May 12, 2:47 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementJKLPike13 min
May 12, 2:56 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementJKLOwsley19 min
May 12, 3:12 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementJKLKnox18 min
May 12, 3:17 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementJKLBreathitt, Perry28 min
May 12, 3:38 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementJKLLeslie37 min
May 12, 3:56 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementJKLPerry34 min
May 12, 4:28 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementJKLKnott32 min
May 12, 4:55 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementJKLPulaski35 min
May 12, 5:01 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementJKLMenifee, Morgan, Wolfe44 min
May 12, 5:02 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementJKLPike43 min
May 12, 5:51 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementJKLJohnson24 min
May 12, 6:00 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementJKLLaurel45 min
May 12, 6:11 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryJKLJackson, Lee, Owsley3 hr
May 12, 6:16 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementJKLJohnson29 min
May 12, 6:28 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementJKLJackson32 min
May 12, 6:46 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningJKLJackson, Owsley3 hr
May 12, 6:58 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementJKLEstill, Lee32 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Watches in Kentucky, 2016Every flash flood watch in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.