Flash Flood Warning 44, NWS Jackson, KY

854 
WGUS73 KJKL 181311
FFSJKL

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
911 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2016

KYC173-197-181330-
/O.CON.KJKL.FF.W.0044.000000T0000Z-160918T1330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MONTGOMERY KY-POWELL KY-
911 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 AM EDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY AND NORTHWESTERN POWELL COUNTIES...

AT 909 AM EDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED FLASH FLOODING IN
CLAY CITY AND STANTON. 3-5 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN...LEADING TO
FLASH FLOODING.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
STANTON...JEFFERSONVILLE...CLAY CITY...POWELL VALLEY...VIRDEN...
WESTBEND AND WALTERSVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 3794 8377 3792 8376 3790 8376 3781 8394
      3782 8396 3785 8396 3785 8399 3784 8400
      3787 8403 3786 8401 3790 8399 3792 8399
      3793 8397 3795 8397

$$

JG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
440 AM EDT Sun Sep 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 339 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2016

A cold front continues to slowly work eastward across central
Kentucky this morning with a surface low tracking northward along
this front, now moving into south central Kentucky. With the low
approaching, we have seen an uptick in shower activity and in fact,
some better updrafts have developed leading to a few widely
isolated storms. This low will continue to track north and east
this morning with precipitation continuing to expand in coverage
along the front as it moves east. Models continue to creep upward
with rainfall from this front and now it looks like most areas
could see a half inch to an inch of rainfall, with perhaps some
locally higher amounts. Fortunately, rainfall should come over a 3
to 6 hour period and should pose no flooding concerns. This will
be some much needed rainfall for the area. As the front moves east
this afternoon, clouds may break up a bit back to the west
allowing for some localized pockets of instability to develop, so
we could see isolated showers and storms develop back to the west
this afternoon aided by lingering moisture just behind the frontal
boundary. As instability decreases after sunset this evening,
activity should dissipate with dry weather spreading back into the
area.

Lots of questions remain about potential fog/stratus for tonight.
Certainly a lot of fog/stratus upstream presently, so it seems
reasonable to think this may fill in across the area tonight and
models are hinting at this possibility. If skies do clear, with
the recent rains and lingering moisture behind the front, we could
be looking at some locally dense fog. Certainly a borderline
situation right now. Will leave the fog out for now, but dayshift
will have to re-evaluate the need for more clouds or fog in
tonights forecast. By Monday, any clouds and fog should quickly
give way to a nice start to the work week. with highs back into
the lower 80s with much lower humidity.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 440 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2016

The period will start with mostly clear skies resulting from
surface high pressure over the Ohio Valley, and high pressure
aloft over the south central CONUS ridging northeast over the
Ohio Valley. Prevailing westerlies across the northern tier of
states will carry a cold front along which will settle southeast
and lose identity and momentum as it runs under the upper ridge.
This front will be moisture starved and should not be noticed as
it arrives locally late Tuesday. High pressure behind the front
will pass by to our north, bringing a continuation of fair
weather. The upper level ridging will weaken with time late in
the week, allowing another cold front to approach from the north.
The GFS and ECMWF don't agree on the southward progress of this
front, with the GFS bringing it through our area on Saturday,
while the ECMWF has it stalling to our north. However, both
models show some potential for light precip. Have used only a 20%
POP Saturday due to still limited moisture and model disparity.

Temperatures through the period will remain above seasonal
norms, but be held in check by the periodic weak fronts.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 206 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2016

A cold front will bring showers to the area through the overnight
hours and on Sunday. As the boundary slips southeast, CIGS will
continue to lower to MVFR, then IFR. IFR will last into the
morning before lifting back to MVFR by midday. However, MVFR
conditions will likely hold for much of the area through the day.
Uncertainty with ceiling enters the picture tomorrow night behind
the departing front. Its possible we could have some stratus build
in behind the departing front, or if we can clear off, we may be
dealing with some pretty good fog. Pattern overall, would favor a
stratus as the low level winds go more northeast with time,
keeping potential stratus locked in tonight.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...KAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
327 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2016

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-191030-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...CAMARGO...
JEFFERSONVILLE...MOUNT STERLING...OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...
IRVINE...RAVENNA...CLAY CITY...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...BROADHEAD...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...ANNVILLE...BURNSIDE...SOMERSET...LONDON...
MONTICELLO...STEARNS...WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...
BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...CUMBERLAND...HARLAN...
SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINSVILLE...CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...
PRESTONSBURG...WHEELWRIGHT...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...HINDMAN...
PIPPA PASSES...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...
JENKINS...WHITESBURG...INEZ...COAL RUN...ELKHORN CITY...
PIKEVILLE...SOUTH WILLIAMSON
327 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

KAS/HAL