Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
126 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016

.NEAR TERM...This afternoon through Monday...

This Afternoon...Deeper convection was slow to evolve across the
area early this afternoon with little progression of the east
coast sea breeze given abundant mid and high clouds rotating
northward on the ENE side of a retrograding upper level low in the
central Gulf of Mexico. The filtered sunlight limited heating with
many locations across our inland Fl zones still in the low/mid 80s
while less cloud cover enabled temperatures to rise into the
lower 90s across SE Ga and NE Florida near JAX. A few weak radar
returns continued to move the NW across the area associated with
the mid level PVA rotating northward round the upper level low.

Short range guidance continued to suggest that with additional
heating and decreased mid level destabilization deeper convection
including some strong to sever storms will ignite across inland NE
Florida along and west of the St. Johns River basin. These storms
will be capable of producing strong downdrafts given modest dry
air just above the surface and steeper mid level lapse rates. High
resolution models including the HRRR/HRRRX indicated the potential
for a resultant wave of strong/severe storms triggered by convective
outflows front the initial cells spawned near the St Johns River
basin over the next couple of hours...with outflows pushing generally
to the WNW and spawning additional convection across the Suwannee
River Valley and inland SE Ga through the late afternoon/early
evening.

Tonight...Lingering stratiform convection and drizzle is expected
across much of the area as deeper/stronger convective cells push
off to the NNW through midnight. Gradually increasing onshore flow
with a weak coastal trough axis indicated in some of the guidance
will bring a chance of coastal showers moving onshore generally
along the NE Florida coast early Monday morning before sunrise.
Minimum temps will trend a bit warmer due to lingering clouds and
increased easterly flow trailing the departing upper level
low...and values will range from the upper 70s/near 80 along the
Atlantic coast to the low/mid 70s inland.

Monday...Deeper easterly flow increasing over the area as stacked
ridging strengthens over the western Atlantic with a surface ridge
axis across the Carolinas. The stronger east coast sea breeze will
move inland by late morning with some coastal showers moving inland
toward the I-95 corridor by midday...with convection blossoming westward
toward inland SE Ga and the I-75 corridor of NE FL into the afternoon
and pushing farther west of the local forecast area during the early
evening. With lack of upper level forcing advertised the highest rain
chances of 30-40% for coastal NE Fl during the morning and our inland
zones during the afternoon with mostly dry conditions across
coastal SE Ga due to proximity to subsidence. East winds will
become breezy along the coast by midday with max temperatures in
the mid/upper 80s...while farther inland temperatures will near
the lower 90s toward I-75. A few strong storms capable of gusty
winds will be possible Mon afternoon but mid level temperatures
will be warming into the -6 to -8 deg C range at 500 mb as the
ridge strengthens to our NE...thus reducing severe weather
potential.

.SHORT TERM /Tuesday through Wednesday Night/...
Model guidance maintains surface and upper ridge of high pressure over and
north of our area. Will continue to see very warm humid conditions with
high temps both days low-mid 90s w of I-95 corridor to around 90
east of I-95. With low-level SE flow should see similar set up for
afternoon/early evening showers/t-storms each day with best coverage
between hwy 301 and I-75 corridors and less coverage closer to east
coast.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday/...
Models flatten upper ridge over our area Thu/Fri as shortwave trough move over
and offshore from mid-Atlantic states...with little change to upper ridge next
weekend.  Will maintain chance POPs each day this period with eastward extension
of higher POP values toward the east coast.

Little change in temperatures seen this period...with high temps in low-mid 90s
w of I-95 corridor...around 90 east of I-95.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR low cigs caused temporary restrictions early this
afternoon across NE Fl terminals. This trend will continue as diurnal
instability increases and triggers scattered showers and thunderstorms
later this afternoon and into this evening. Best chances of thunderstorms
today will be near VQQ and GNV based on the latest short range model
guidance...but more discrete cells could impact the other terminals.
Will monitor radar trends to best time tempo groups for convection.
Tonight lingering stratiform and low/mid clouds will gradually erode
this evening with lingering mid/high debris clouds overnight.

&&

.MARINE...Prevailing ESE winds will develop tonight and persist
through Thu as high pressure axis dominates north of the local
waters. Fri winds veer southerly as the ridge axis shifts south of
the local waters as a mean layer trough approaches the eastern
seaboard.

Rip Currents: Low risk today and Monday.

.CLIMATE...Jacksonville's 6.95 inches of rainfall since June 1st
is currently the 4th driest since records began in 1872. The
driest meteorological summer (Jun, Jul, Aug) on record in
Jacksonville occurred in 1954 when 8.71 inches of rainfall was
recorded.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  94  74  94 /  20  30  10  30
SSI  79  89  79  89 /  10  10  10  20
JAX  74  91  75  91 /  20  20  10  30
SGJ  76  89  78  88 /  20  30  10  30
GNV  72  93  74  93 /  30  40  10  60
OCF  73  93  75  93 /  30  40  10  60

&&

.JAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

Enyedi/Wolf/Nelson

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
232 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-151845-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-INLAND NASSAU-INLAND DUVAL-UNION-
BRADFORD-CLAY-ST. JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-
COASTAL NASSAU-COASTAL DUVAL-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-
WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-
ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
232 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016

...MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON & EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...MAINLY OVER INLAND AREAS. STORM MOTION WILL GENERALLY BE
TOWARDS THE NORTH NORTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 60 MPH...EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...SMALL
HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. THE AREA OF GREATEST SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 301
CORRIDOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...PRIMARILY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE IS WARNINGS ARE ISSUED FOR
THEIR LOCATIONS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

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