Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
935 AM EDT THU AUG 4 2016

.UPDATE...
No change to previous forecast as Morning Soundings still show
Precipitable Water levels just above 2 inches in the moist
Southwest Flow and expect numerous coverage of showers and storms
this afternoon for all areas. Diurnal heating NE of the current
showers over inland NE FL will support Max Temps in the lower 90s
with a few mid 90s possible in areas that don't receive rainfall
until later in the day. Main threat from activity will be heavy
rainfall with localized/temporary minor flooding issues. The
stronger storms will still produce some frequent lightning and
gusty winds but still expecting mostly below severe limits as Mid
level temps at 500mb still showing warm conds with temps at -4C to
-6C range. The SW steering flow is still weak at 5-10 knots and
will allow for a weak East Coast Sea Breeze to develop and push
inland to about the I-95 corridor, so most of the activity will be
over inland areas through the afternoon, although activity along
the I-95 corridor will drift towards the coast during the late
afternoon and evening hours with just enough SW steering flow to
get them there. Most of the activity will wind down during the
evening hours around sunset, although the atmosphere will remain
moist enough to support isolated showers at any time through the
night. Muggy overnight lows in the 70s expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
Still VFR this AM, but high rain chances this afternoon will need
tempo groups for all Inland TAF sites as IFR Vsbys and MVFR Cigs
appear likely. Coastal TAF sites may escape some of the storms as
the SW steering flow may be weak enough to keep activity just
inland. Gusty winds up to 25-30 knots possible along with reduced
VSBYS due to heavy rainfall for brief periods.

&&

.MARINE...
Light SW Flow 10-15 knots becoming SE later today along the coast.
Seas 2-4 ft nearshore and 3-5 ft offshore. No headlines. Main
impacts will be storms near the coast with gusty winds and heavy
rainfall and lightning.

Rip Currents: Moderate Risk with morning breaker reports of 2-3 ft
with the occasional 4 ft surf.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  94  75  91  74 /  60  60  60  30
SSI  91  77  88  76 /  60  60  60  40
JAX  93  75  90  75 /  70  60  70  40
SGJ  93  76  87  76 /  60  60  60  40
GNV  92  73  88  74 /  70  60  70  50
OCF  92  74  88  74 /  70  60  70  60

&&

.JAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

Hess/Niemeyer

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1215 AM EDT THU AUG 4 2016

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-050515-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-INLAND NASSAU-INLAND DUVAL-UNION-
BRADFORD-CLAY-ST. JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-
COASTAL NASSAU-COASTAL DUVAL-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-
WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-
ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
1215 AM EDT THU AUG 4 2016

...MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS...
...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES DUE TO INCREASED
EASTERLY SWELLS.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. FREQUENT LIGHTNING
IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS. STORM MOTION WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE SLOW WITH A GRADUAL DRIFT TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 5 TO
10 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

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