Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
202 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

.SHORT TERM /This afternoon through Tuesday/...

Pattern shift with increasing rain chances as surface ridge
weakens over the area and mean layer trough axis deepens down the
SE Atlantic coast states.

Numerous showers and tstorms will gradually build eastward across
our interior Ga zones and the Suwannee River Valley through mid
afternoon with more isolated activity forming along the east coast
sea breeze over our SE Fl zones where mid level subsidence was
slightly stronger under the 1000-500 mb ridge axis. Best chances
of late afternoon and early evening convection will be across SE
Ga and across inland NE Florida where sea breezes/outflows will
converge under an increasingly moist airmass...with convection
fading through midnight with loss of heating. Cannot completely
rule out a rouge shower across the area after midnight tonight due
to mean layer trough axis currently across AL/Western GA positioning
and lingering across the local area...but at this time indicated
10% rain chances after midnight with muggy overnight conditions
with lows in the mid/upper 70s.

Tuesday elevated rain chances continue with a pattern similar to
today but with greater coverage as the mean layer trough deepens
across the area and the ridge axis shift farther south. A light
westerly flow will again bring a more dominant west coast sea
breeze regime...with locally heavy rainfall likely with PWATs
increasing to near 2.2-2.3 inches across the county warning area
by late in the day.

Scattered strong to isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible
both today and again Tue during peak heating and into the early
evening hours. Main convective concerns will be very heavy
rainfall given high deep layer moisture content and very weak
storm motion. In addition to the heavy rainfall...precipitation
loading will also favor strong wet downbursts.

Increased cloud cover will temper high temperatures compared to
recent days which will generally range in the low/mid 90s with
heat index values near 105. Low temperatures will range in the
mid 70s inland to upper 70s coast with muggy overnight conditions.

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Sunday/...

Forecast area will be on the eastern side of Southern Plains/Gulf
Coast Region upper ridge...with another ridge over the western
Atlantic...and a weakness over our forecast area. At the surface
will have a persistent weak surface trough over ctrl GA and
afternoon sea breezes moving inland from the Atlantic and Gulf.
Model guidance maintains moist unstable environment over the area
through this period...with an axis of max precip water /2.1-2.25/
over the forecast area. This should be supportive of numerous
afternoon/evening showers and t-storms each day. Strongest
storms...likely associated with sea breeze and outflow
collisions...could generate strong wet microbursts.

Guidance shows a slight lowering of max temps from mid 90s
inland/lwr 90s coast Wed to around 90 inland/upr 80s coast
Friday...with slight increase in max temps next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Prevailing VFR conditions with temporary restrictions
due to afternoon and evening convection possible especially at
inland terminals. Lingering debris clouds overnight with a return
of showers and tstorms Tue.

&&

.MARINE...High pressure will persist east of the local waters as a
surface trough deepens and lingers across the SE Atlantic seaboard
states through Friday. This regime will bring a persist southerly
flow regime with nocturnal wind surges near 15 kts at times under
SW flow and daytime surges from the SSE along the coast due to the
east coast sea breeze. Headlines are not expected at this time.

Rip Currents: Low risk of rip currents through Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  93  75  94 /  40  60  30  50
SSI  76  90  78  91 /  20  50  20  60
JAX  73  93  75  94 /  30  60  30  70
SGJ  75  90  77  91 /  20  50  20  60
GNV  72  92  75  93 /  40  50  30  70
OCF  72  93  75  93 /  30  50  20  70

&&

.JAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

Wolf/Enyedi

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
437 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-020845-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-INLAND NASSAU-INLAND DUVAL-UNION-
BRADFORD-CLAY-ST. JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-
COASTAL NASSAU-COASTAL DUVAL-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-
WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-
ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
437 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
313 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

GAZ162-011945-
ECHOLS GA-
313 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ECHOLS COUNTY UNTIL
345 PM EDT...

AT 313 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
NEEDMORE...OR NEAR FARGO...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NEEDMORE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3073 8268 3072 8267 3072 8262 3071 8259
      3069 8258 3068 8259 3065 8258 3059 8260
      3060 8273 3073 8275
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 180DEG 15KT 3069 8268

WOLF