Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
110 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

.NEAR TERM /Through Sunday/...

Storms were developing along the east coast and west coast sea
breezes, and also across the interior this afternoon. Some storms
may become strong to possibly severe, with strong wind gusts,
frequent lightning and heavy downpours. Storms should merge across
the interior late this afternoon and into the early evening before
dissipating with loss of daytime heating. Debris clouds will
linger into the overnight hours before clearing. Overnight lows
will be in the 70s.

Bermuda ridge axis across the middle of the region will lift
northward to southeast Georgia on Sunday, providing a light
southeasterly steering flow. The east coast sea breeze will push
inland a little quicker, with storms pushing into the interior and
the western side of the region by the early evening. Locally heavy
rainfall and gusty wet downbursts are possible. Near normal to
slightly above normal high temperatures are expected, with highs
in the low to mid 90s. Heat indices will be in the 102-107F range
once again.

.SHORT TERM.../Sunday Night Through Tuesday/...
Western Atlantic surface high pressure ridge axis will slide from
just North of the region Sunday night to near the FL/GA line
Monday afternoon, where it will remain nearly stationary through
Tuesday. As the ridge slides South a trough of low pressure will
move into the Southeastern states.

With this pattern the flow will be largely onshore. This will
allow the East coast sea breeze to push further inland. Will
focus most convection Monday afternoon West of interstate 95. Will
again focus convection more inland Tuesday, but the proximity of
the trough will also help to enhance convection over SE GA.

Temperatures this period will trend near to slightly above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM.../Tuesday Night Through Saturday/...
Persistent pattern with surface ridge over Western Atlantic will
break down toward the end of the week. Convective focus will be
inland early in the period due to onshore flow, then become more
broad in coverage with the pattern change.

Temperatures are expected to remain at or above normal this
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Showers and storms were forming along the east coast sea breeze
and also developing across the interior this afternoon. Brief
MVFR/IFR conditions are possible for any storms that move
near/over the TAF sites into the early evening. VFR conditions
forecast overnight with light winds. Patchy ground fog is possible
at KVQQ near daybreak.

&&

.MARINE...
The evening wind surge is creating southerly winds in the
10-15 knot range tonight. The axis of western Atlantic ridging
will extend across the southeast Georgia waters on Sunday.
Southerly surface winds Sunday morning will become southeast in
the near shore waters during the early afternoon hours as the sea
breeze pushes inland. East to southeast winds will prevail over
the regional waters Monday and Tuesday.

Rip Currents: Low risk.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  96  75  94 /  30  40  20  40
SSI  79  91  80  90 /  20  20  10  20
JAX  74  94  76  93 /  20  40  10  20
SGJ  78  91  77  90 /  20  20  10  10
GNV  71  93  72  93 /  30  50  30  40
OCF  71  94  73  94 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.JAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

Kennedy/Struble/Walker

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
413 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-171000-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-INLAND NASSAU-INLAND DUVAL-UNION-
BRADFORD-CLAY-ST. JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-
COASTAL NASSAU-COASTAL DUVAL-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-
WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-
ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
413 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZES
AS THEY MOVE INLAND. THE GREATEST COVERAGE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL FOCUS BETWEEN THE HIGHWAY 301 AND INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDORS
AND ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE  AND WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. STORM MOTION WILL BE TO THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
INLAND THIS EVENING.

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL NEAR 105 DEGREES INLAND THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

SCATTERED MAINLY INLAND AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
EACH DAY. STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH GUSTY
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS EXPECTED.

ELEVATED HEAT INDICES NEAR 105 ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

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