Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
317 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

.NEAR TERM (Tonight-Tuesday night)...

This afternoon-Tonight...Deep layer ridge continues over the area. Light
but moist and unstable southwest flow is beginning to produce scattered
storms along the west coast seabreeze and west of the St Johns River across
Putnam and Marion counties. As both the west and east coast seabreezes
push inland later this afternoon...scattered storms will continue to
develop with strong storms possible. High-Res model continues to
indicate strong storms especially possible where seabreezes and
outflows merge...between U.S. Highway 301 and I-95. Storms will
gradually fade out in the evening...but there may be a few lingering
showers/storms that may propagate towards the coast before finally
dissipating.

Tuesday-Tuesday night...Deep layer ridge expected to be over the
northern peninsula. A similar convective day is expected...with low
end scattered convection possible over the eastern zones...with more
isolated activity anticipated northwest of Waycross and Alma where
less affects from sea breezes are expected. Highs continue above
normal in the mid and upper 90s and max heat indices perhaps just
shy of heat advisory criteria.

.SHORT TERM /Wed-Thu/...

Not much change to pattern as High Pressure ridge remains in place
but slowly weakens enough to allow for slight up tick in shower
and storm activity during the afternoon/evening hours. The high
pressure ridge will still hold max temps into the mid/upper 90s
inland and lower 90s with late sea breeze developing along the
coast each day and Heat Indices will continue around 105 degrees
and approach heat advisory criteria of 108F each afternoon. Sea
breezes meeting inland should allow for storm coverage of 20-40%
on Wed Afternoon and 30-50% Thu afternoon. Models still suggesting
some cooling of 500MB temps to -8/-9C should allow for scattered
strong storms and even isolated severe wet microburst potential
late in the day as sea breezes meet over inland areas.

.LONG TERM /Fri-Mon/...

Stagnant pattern remains in place but longer range models have a
slight shift in high pressure ridge in the lower levels towards
south georgia which will help with more easterly flow across the
Florida Peninsula which would offer a slight nudge downward in Max
Temps into the lower/middle 90s there, while mid/upper 90s will
continue across SE GA with heat indices around 105 degrees.
Overall expect near normal coverage of scattered showers/storms
during the afternoon/evening hours over inland areas as Atlc Coast
Sea Breeze pushes further inland each afternoon as the low level
steering flow slowly shifts from SWly to SEly through the period.
Still only moderate confidence in this pattern shift.

&&

.AVIATION...Scattered storms expected to continue to develop as
seabreezes move inland. Have VCTS at all Ne Fl terminals aft 20z.
Amendments may be needed for TS with MVFR vsby/cigs. No mention
of thunder at SSI but have VCSH there between 00Z-03Z. Otherwise
prevailing VFR expected with scattered showers/storms fading
in the eve.

&&

.MARINE...Southerly flow will prevail this week as surface high
pressure dominates east to southeast over the western Atlantic.
Southerly wind surges expected by late afternoon through the
evening hours up to or just below exercise caution levels.
Combined seas 2-4 ft expected...except briefly higher around 3-5 ft
during the surges.

Rip Currents: Generally low risk through Tuesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Through July 10th, Average Max Temp at Jacksonville is 95.9F,
which is the 2nd hottest start to July on record since 1871.
Behind only 1969 which had Avg Max Temp of 96.5F through 7-10.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  97  74  98 /  10  30  20  30
SSI  79  94  79  94 /  20  20  20  30
JAX  75  95  75  96 /  30  30  30  40
SGJ  77  92  77  93 /  20  20  20  30
GNV  72  95  73  97 /  20  30  30  50
OCF  73  95  73  96 /  30  40  30  50

&&

.JAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

Peterson/Hess/Walker

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
324 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-120730-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-INLAND NASSAU-INLAND DUVAL-UNION-
BRADFORD-CLAY-ST. JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-
COASTAL NASSAU-COASTAL DUVAL-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-
WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-
ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
324 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

HEAT INDEX TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 102 AND 107 DEGREES
TODAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
AS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE MOVES WEST OF THE ST JOHNS RIVER AND
OVER THE OKEFENOKEE SWAMP. STORMS MAY MOVE WEST INTO THE
HOMERVILLE AND LAKE CITY AREAS THIS EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE ABOVE 100 EACH AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED EACH DAY. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

SANDRIK

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>