Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
912 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

.UPDATE...
Fast westerly steering flow along with PWATS close to 2 inches and
Max Temps reaching into the lower to middle 90s will trigger
scattered to numerous showers and storms with the best coverage
across the I-10 Corridor and along the FL/GA border. Storm tracks
will be towards the East and Southeast at 20-25 mph and local sea
breeze boundaries will not be a major player today as the ATLC
coast sea breeze remains pinned to the coast and morning
convection along the Big Bend area has already disrupted the Gulf
Coast sea breeze. So expect outflows and other lingering
boundaries to be the main triggers of convection through the day
An early start to convection this morning will likely lead to an
earlier ending this evening by sunset as storms push rapidly into
the Atlantic. Max temps into the 90s and dewpoints in the
mid/upper 70s will still support heat indices around 105 degrees
but convection and some cloud cover will disrupt widespread heat
indices from reaching the advisory criteria of 108 degrees. The
faster storm motion today will support strong/gusty winds of 40-50
mph, but widespread severe weather/damaging winds is not
expected. While convection will fade early this evening...the fast
westerly flow will still support a few showers and storms along
the big bend region which may track into the i-75 corridor of
inland NE FL at times during the overnight hours. Muggy overnight
lows in the mid/upper 70s are expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with tempo MVFR cigs/vsbys as convection pushes through
between 16z and 22z, then VFR conds with lingering high clouds
overnight. Gusty west winds at 10-20 knots today with higher gusts
to 25-35 knots possible in storm activity.

&&

.MARINE...
Fast W/SW flow at 15-20 knots will continue through tonight with
SCEC conds expected. Still a small chance of sustained 20 knots
tonight but expect bigger threat of stronger wind gusts 25-35
knots in offshore moving convection this afternoon and evening.

Rip Currents: Low Risk in the offshore flow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  76  99  72 /  40  40  60  40
SSI  91  78  94  75 /  50  50  60  60
JAX  91  76  99  75 /  60  50  60  60
SGJ  91  76  95  76 /  60  50  40  60
GNV  89  75  94  76 /  60  50  40  60
OCF  89  76  92  75 /  60  50  40  60

&&

.JAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

Hess/Enyedi/Guillet

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
930 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-170915-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-INLAND NASSAU-INLAND DUVAL-UNION-
BRADFORD-CLAY-ST. JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-
COASTAL NASSAU-COASTAL DUVAL-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-
WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-
ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
930 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

...HEAT INDICES OF AT LEAST 105 DEGREES EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. STORM MOTION WILL BE TOWARDS THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 20 TO 25 MPH.

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO 105 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY...IT WILL BE BREEZY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 95 TO
100 DEGREE RANGE. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 108
TO 112 DEGREE RANGE AND A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR
SOME PORTION OF THE AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WITH A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT FROM THESE STORMS...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. ROUGH SURF AND
INCREASING RIP CURRENTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN OVER THE
WEEKEND.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1232 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

FLZ020-022-023-GAZ150-162>164-161730-
BAKER FL-COLUMBIA FL-HAMILTON FL-CLINCH GA-CHARLTON GA-ECHOLS GA-
WARE GA-
1232 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN COLUMBIA...
NORTHWESTERN BAKER...NORTHEASTERN HAMILTON...EASTERN ECHOLS...
SOUTHERN CLINCH...SOUTHEASTERN WARE AND NORTHWESTERN CHARLTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM EDT...

AT 1232 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES NORTHWEST OF NEEDMORE...OR 14 MILES EAST OF STATENVILLE...MOVING
EAST AT 35 MPH.

GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
MINOR WIND DAMAGE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FARGO...STEPHEN FOSTER STATE PARK AND NEEDMORE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3057 8298 3087 8287 3092 8216 3048 8226
TIME...MOT...LOC 1632Z 277DEG 29KT 3077 8280

ENYEDI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1249 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

FLZ021>023-030-035-036-161745-
ALACHUA FL-BAKER FL-GILCHRIST FL-UNION FL-COLUMBIA FL-SUWANNEE FL-
1249 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN COLUMBIA...UNION...
NORTHWESTERN ALACHUA...SOUTHWESTERN BAKER...SOUTHEASTERN SUWANNEE AND
NORTHEASTERN GILCHRIST COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM EDT...

AT 1249 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTH OF WELLBORN TO NEAR MAYO.
MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 25 MPH.

GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
MINOR WIND DAMAGE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAKE CITY...LAKE BUTLER...ICHETUCKNEE SPRING...COLUMBIA...HIGH SPRINGS...
FORT WHITE...WORTHINGTON SPRINGS...OBRIEN...GROVES...UPLAND PINES...
PALESTINE COMMUNITY...WATERTOWN...MCALPIN...LULU...OLUSTEE...PROVIDENCE...
FIVE POINTS...BRANFORD...HILDRETH AND DUKES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3022 8283 3021 8218 2969 8266 2984 8289
      2988 8287 2990 8290 2989 8292 2990 8291
      2992 8293 2996 8293 2996 8295 2999 8296
      3001 8298 3001 8300 3003 8301 3007 8307
      3008 8307 3009 8309
TIME...MOT...LOC 1649Z 277DEG 20KT 3014 8280 3002 8315

ENYEDI