Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
840 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016

...A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...

.UPDATE...BROAD SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT ACROSS SE ALABAMA WILL
RAPIDLY TRACK ACROSS SE GA LATE THIS EVE AND ACROSS NE FL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE WELL SE OF THE AREA EARLY FRI AM AS THE
SFC LOW RE-DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. WSR 88D
INDICATING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SE ALABAMA ALONG THE
FRONT...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY MOVE ESE TOWARDS THE AREA.
HIGH-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE LINE WILL MOVE INTO SE GA
LATE THIS EVE AND ACROSS NE FL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND BE SE OF THE AREA
EARLY FRI AM. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE LIMITED AND NO SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE COOLING
ALOFT (WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES) AND ALONG WITH UPPER
SUPPORT OF THE SHORT WAVE WILL PROBABLY HELP PRODUCE A FEW EMBEDDED
ELEVATED STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND/OR SMALL HAIL IN
A FEW SPOTS. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL NOT BE VERY IMPRESSIVE DUE TO THE
FAST STORM MOTION AND STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.50-0.75 INCHES
ACROSS SE GA...TO 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES FOR MOST OF NE FL. LOWS IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION... VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CIGS
DECREASING AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA AFT 06Z...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. ISOLATED EMBEDDED
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS. ALSO APPEARS THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL SW JET TRAVERSES THE AREA AND HAVE LLWS
AT MOST NE FL TERMINALS BETWEEN 06Z-08Z...EXCEPT BETWEEN 09Z-12Z AT
SGJ. RESIDUAL MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... WITH
SKIES CLEARING IN THE AFTN.

&&

.MARINE... WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WITH SCA
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
N/NW BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY WITH SCA WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTN FOR THE OFFSHORE LEGS. A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
STORMS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE AFT MIDNIGHT AND BE SE OF
THE WATERS FRI AM.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  49  65  42  71 /  90   0   0   0
SSI  52  64  47  65 /  90  10   0   0
JAX  52  68  43  71 /  90   0   0   0
SGJ  57  67  48  69 /  60   0   0   0
GNV  53  72  44  75 /  60   0   0   0
OCF  55  74  46  75 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

&&

PP/AE/KG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
901 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-041100-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-INLAND NASSAU-INLAND DUVAL-UNION-
BRADFORD-CLAY-ST. JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-
COASTAL NASSAU-COASTAL DUVAL-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-
WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-
ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
901 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016

...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA. STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FRIDAY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROMOTE AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY
REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1036 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016

FLZ024-GAZ132-134-149>152-163>165-040415-
INLAND NASSAU FL-CHARLTON GA-CLINCH GA-BRANTLEY GA-BACON GA-
INLAND CAMDEN GA-PIERCE GA-ATKINSON GA-WARE GA-COFFEE GA-
1036 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN NASSAU...PIERCE...
ATKINSON...BRANTLEY...WARE...SOUTHERN BACON...SOUTHEASTERN COFFEE...
CHARLTON...NORTHERN CLINCH AND NORTHWESTERN CAMDEN COUNTIES UNTIL
1115 PM EST...

AT 1035 PM EST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER DIXIE UNION...OR 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF WAYCROSS...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 60 MPH. OTHER STORMS WERE JUST NORTHWEST OF HOMERVILLE
AND ALSO MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
WIND DAMAGE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WAYCROSS...ALMA...BLACKSHEAR...FOLKSTON...HOMERVILLE...PEARSON...NAHUNTA...
PATTERSON...ARGYLE...STEPHEN FOSTER STATE PARK...NICHOLLS...HOMELAND...
OFFERMAN...RACE POND...WAYNESVILLE...DIXIE UNION...BRAGANZA...COGDELL...
BRISTOL AND PEBBLE HILL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3128 8303 3156 8257 3142 8206 3137 8203
      3135 8192 3136 8185 3132 8173 3061 8201
      3108 8297 3118 8297 3119 8305
TIME...MOT...LOC 0335Z 279DEG 51KT 3131 8248

PETERSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1043 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016

FLZ020>023-030-040430-
BAKER FL-UNION FL-COLUMBIA FL-HAMILTON FL-SUWANNEE FL-
1043 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN UNION...BAKER...
SOUTHEASTERN HAMILTON...NORTHEASTERN SUWANNEE AND CENTRAL COLUMBIA
COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 PM EST...

AT 1043 PM EST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR WELLBORN...OR 12 MILES WEST OF LAKE CITY...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
WIND DAMAGE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAKE CITY...WHITE SPRINGS...COLUMBIA...TAYLOR...MACCLENNY...GLEN ST. MARY...
WELLBORN...SANDERSON...WINFIELD...SUWANNEE VALLEY...PALESTINE COMMUNITY...
FIVE POINTS...WATERTOWN...LULU...OLUSTEE...ELLERBEE AND HOUSTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3049 8221 3047 8220 3041 8221 3038 8219
      3038 8218 3036 8216 3014 8209 3014 8214
      3012 8214 3011 8215 3002 8289 3037 8296
TIME...MOT...LOC 0343Z 255DEG 53KT 3014 8283

PETERSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1109 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016

GAZ136-151>154-165-166-040500-
INLAND GLYNN GA-WAYNE GA-BRANTLEY GA-INLAND CAMDEN GA-PIERCE GA-
COASTAL GLYNN GA-COASTAL CAMDEN GA-
1109 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN PIERCE...GLYNN...
BRANTLEY...SOUTHEASTERN WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAMDEN COUNTIES UNTIL
MIDNIGHT EST...

AT 1108 PM EST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR RAYBON...OR 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF NAHUNTA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
65 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BRUNSWICK...ST. SIMONS ISLAND...JESUP...NAHUNTA...GARDI...DOCK JUNCTION...
WAYNESVILLE...WAVERLY...EVERETT...THALMANN...LITTLE SAINT SIMONS ISLAND...
RAYBON...HICKOX...SEA ISLAND...COUNTRY CLUB ESTATES...DOCTORTOWN...
ATKINSON...MOUNT PLEASANT...BOYS ESTATE AND HORTENSE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3114 8137 3113 8135 3111 8144 3122 8156
      3101 8140 3106 8151 3100 8146 3097 8157
      3099 8163 3086 8142 3121 8216 3167 8187
      3159 8171 3142 8160 3126 8139 3131 8134
      3126 8126
TIME...MOT...LOC 0408Z 295DEG 55KT 3134 8191

PETERSON