Small Craft Advisory 37, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
907 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016

...Strong winds and heavy rainfall will continue to impact the
coast from Jacksonville to Brunswick tonight...

.UPDATE...
Tropical disturbance/low continues to track northward through
coastal NE FL with latest position just W of St Augustine.
Sustained winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 40 to 45 mph still
possible along the coast and will keep wind advisory in place.
Rain bands on the NE side of this system continue to slowly move
up the coast and are the focus of heavy rainfall and gusty winds
and have placed Flood Watch across portions of coastal SE GA due
to the heavy rainfall they have already received ahead of this
band, while more localized temporary flooding expected across the
JAX metro area the next few hours. Much further inland, not
expecting much in the way of impacts with just a few isolated
showers and abundant cloud cover. Weak rotation noted in rain
bands as they move northward along the coast and an isolated
tornado cannot be ruled out overnight. With Tropical Low expected
to be over coastal SE GA Wed Morning expect conditions to continue
there before improving by the afternoon, while NE FL will see
improving conditions late tonight then enough moisture to keep at
least a chance of showers and storms through the afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
Strong winds and IFR/MVFR cigs/vsbys will impact the coastal TAFs
tonight with lower impacts at KGNV, although low cigs will be
possible there towards morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Gale Warnings will continue with sustained winds generally in the
25 to 35 knot range with gusts to 45 knots on the east side of the
tropical low as it moves northward. Seas 6 to 8 feet still
expected to build to 7 to 10 feet. Diminishing trends expected on
Wed as low pulls slowly away from the region.

High Surf/Rip Currents: breaker reports up to 6 ft and rising as
of sunset and will keep high surf advisory in place along with the
high risk of rip currents.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Additional 3 to 6 inch rainfall amounts will mainly be along the
coast from jacksonville northward to brunswick and with previous
heavy rainfall earlier today across portions of coastal SE GA have
posted flood watch through Wed afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  83  72  87 /  70  80  50  70
SSI  77  82  75  85 /  80  80  60  70
JAX  74  86  74  88 /  80  70  40  70
SGJ  76  84  76  86 /  80  60  50  70
GNV  74  88  74  88 /  60  60  30  70
OCF  74  88  73  88 /  40  60  30  70

&&

.JAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for Coastal
     Duval-Coastal Nassau-Flagler-St. Johns.

     Wind Advisory until 10 AM EDT Wednesday for Coastal Duval-
     Coastal Nassau-Flagler-St. Johns.

     High Surf Advisory until 10 AM EDT Wednesday for Coastal Duval-
     Coastal Nassau-Flagler-St. Johns.

GA...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for Brantley-Coastal
     Camden-Coastal Glynn-Inland Camden-Inland Glynn-Wayne.

     High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for Coastal
     Camden-Coastal Glynn.

     Wind Advisory until 10 AM EDT Wednesday for Coastal Camden-
     Coastal Glynn.

     High Surf Advisory until 10 AM EDT Wednesday for Coastal Camden-
     Coastal Glynn.

AM...Gale Warning until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for Coastal waters from
     Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL out
     20 NM-Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL
     from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Fernandina Beach to St.
     Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to
     Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

Hess/Enyedi/Guillet/Sandrik

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
745 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-141130-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-INLAND NASSAU-INLAND DUVAL-UNION-
BRADFORD-CLAY-ST. JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-
COASTAL NASSAU-COASTAL DUVAL-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-
WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-
ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
745 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...
...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF ADVISORY...
...WIND ADVISORY ALONG COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

A TROPICAL LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH FLORIDA PENINSULA
THROUGH TONIGHT AND BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TONIGHT. RAIN
BANDS WILL ROTATE TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE BANDS WHICH
MAY ALSO PRODUCE BRIEF WATER SPOUTS AND TORNADOES.

INTENSE RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS INLAND. HEAVY RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME MAY LEAD TO
TEMPORARY FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS AS WELL AS LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.

ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER
RAIN BANDS.

THE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL BE HIGH INTO WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING SEAS WITH BREAKERS BECOMING
UP TO 5 TO 8 FEET. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF OVER 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER, INDIVIDUAL
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HIGH WIND AND FLOODING TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

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