Small Craft Advisory 30, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1050 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OCCURRING FROM JACKSONVILLE TO GAINESVILLE AND POINTS
SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY RESIDES FROM PONTE
VEDRA TO JUST NORTH OF OCALA. THIS COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY. IN THE MEANTIME...SOME DRIER
AIR IS STARTING TO WORK INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PRECIPICE OF THE CWA.
ISODROSOTHERM ANALSIS SHOWING DEWPOINTS IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE
RANGE SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHERE BULK SHEAR IS AROUND 50 AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE WITH CAPES STILL NEAR 1000 J/KG. HAVE STRATIFIED
POP ACROSS THE SE GA AND NE FL REGION WITH POPS NEAR NIL ACROSS
INTERIOR SE GA AND LIKELY CHANCES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. A
FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM SAINT AUGUSTINE TO GAINESVILLE THIS LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR MASS WILL FILTER INTO NORTHEAST FL IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
NE FL TERMINALS THRU 16Z...WITH A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
QUICKLY EASTWARD...ENDING AT THE DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS AROUND
15Z...AND MOVING OFFSHORE OF SGJ AROUND 17Z. A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHEAST FL TERMINALS THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH WIND GUSTS TO 35 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL REGION-WIDE BY 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT HAVE CROSSED THE GEORGIA WATERS THIS
MORNING...AND WILL PASS THROUGH THE OFFSHORE FLORIDA WATERS BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE FLORIDA WATERS...SOUTH OF PONTE VEDRA.  LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN ORGANIZE NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS
TONIGHT...TIGHTENING OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO CAUTION SPEEDS OVER BOTH THE
NEAR SHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
MAY DEVELOP OVER THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS ON THURS MORNING...AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE
GEORGIA AND FLORIDA WATERS BY THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. SEAS OFFSHORE WILL PEAK IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE THURS NIGHT.
WINDS WILL LIKELY SUBSIDE BACK TO CAUTION LEVELS ON THURS NIGHT IN
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...WITH SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH
AROUND SUNRISE ON FRI OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER TEXAS
ON FRIDAY WILL BUILD EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
THIS WEEKEND. CAUTION CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT
OFFSHORE...WITH OFFSHORE WINDS CONTINUING THIS WEEKEND BUT SPEEDS
REMAINING BELOW CAUTION CRITERIA.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY DUE TO
OFFSHORE WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  80  54  72  49 /  10   0  10   0
SSI  79  59  73  52 /  20  10   0   0
JAX  83  56  76  52 /  30  10   0   0
SGJ  81  60  76  56 /  50  20   0   0
GNV  82  56  77  50 /  50  10   0   0
OCF  81  56  80  52 /  70  20   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

CORDERO/HESS/COMBS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
451 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-050900-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-INLAND NASSAU-INLAND DUVAL-UNION-
BRADFORD-CLAY-ST. JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-
COASTAL NASSAU-COASTAL DUVAL-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-
WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-
ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
451 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING OVER NORTH CENTRAL
AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR AREA TODAY.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
MORNING OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA.
STORM MOTION WILL GENERALLY BE EASTWARD AROUND 30 MPH. STRONGER
ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 40-55
MPH...SMALL HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. ACTIVITY MAY
LINGER THROUGH THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS IN NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE OFFSHORE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY OVER
BOTH THE NEAR SHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS...WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OFFSHORE.

BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL
CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ON THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

NELSON

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