Severe Thunderstorm Warning 44, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1042 AM EDT THU MAY 19 2016

.UPDATE...
The very moist atmosphere over the region allowed low clouds to
quickly develop after sunrise this morning near the Atlantic coast
and across Southeast Georgia. This has delayed heating a bit but a
few extra breaks in the clouds by early afternoon will allow temps
to climb into the 80s.

The morning sounding showed a moist and unstable airmass which
will be supportive of scattered to numerous storms this
afternoon. The highest concentration of storms is expected along
the I-95 corridor mid to late this afternoon and also across
inland southeast Georgia late this afternoon into this evening.

A broad surface trough just upstream will become more oriented
west to east across southern Georgia this afternoon. Ongoing
numerous storms along this boundary will eventually move into
southeast Georgia by late this afternoon and continue into this
evening as they move southeast towards the Jacksonville area
during the evening hours. Isolated strong storms will be possible
late this afternoon into this evening with strong gusty winds and
locally heavy downpours being the main concerns.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR ceilings this morning will mostly lift to VFR levels by noon.
Storms will increase in coverage this afternoon, becoming
scattered to numerous along the I-95 corridor and across most of
southeast Georgia. Timing this activity at each terminal remains
difficult and we will continue to maintain vcts this afternoon
until we can get a better handle on the exact timing of this
activity. Look for amendments by early afternoon. The strongest
storms will be capable of brief ifr conditions in heavy rain.

&&

.MARINE...
Southeast winds around 10 knots Today with seas of 2 to 3 feet.
Storms will increase in coverage this afternoon with increased
winds/seas in and near storms.

RIP CURRENTS: Low Risk.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  85  69  86  70 /  70  50  70  80
SSI  80  72  83  72 /  40  60  50  70
JAX  86  69  88  71 /  60  50  60  60
SGJ  83  72  86  72 /  50  30  60  50
GNV  88  69  89  70 /  50  10  60  50
OCF  88  70  89  70 /  40  10  60  40

&&

.JAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

Shuler/Shashy/Combs

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
410 AM EDT THU MAY 19 2016

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-200745-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-INLAND NASSAU-INLAND DUVAL-UNION-
BRADFORD-CLAY-ST. JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-
COASTAL NASSAU-COASTAL DUVAL-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-
WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-
ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
410 AM EDT THU MAY 19 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. A FEW STORMS
MAY BECOME STRONG AND PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS IN ADDITION
TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...WHICH
MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG AND PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS IN ADDITION
TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ACTIVATION IS NOT NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
140 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016

GAZ136-151-152-191830-
WAYNE GA-BRANTLEY GA-PIERCE GA-
140 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN WAYNE...FAR EASTERN
PIERCE AND NORTH CENTRAL BRANTLEY COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM EDT...

AT 139 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
RAYBON...OR 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PATTERSON...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
WITH POSSIBLE MINOR WIND DAMAGE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HORTENSE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3129 8208 3136 8207 3144 8189 3128 8188
TIME...MOT...LOC 1739Z 265DEG 11KT 3133 8203

WOLF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
212 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016

GAZ150>152-191900-
BRANTLEY GA-PIERCE GA-WARE GA-
212 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL WARE...PIERCE AND WEST
CENTRAL BRANTLEY COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM EDT...

AT 212 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
BOGGY BAY...OR 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WAYCROSS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30
MPH.

EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WAYCROSS...BLACKSHEAR...PATTERSON...BRISTOL...BRAGANZA...MANOR...FORT
MUDGE...HICKOX...BOGGY BAY AND NEEDHAM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3101 8253 3111 8262 3148 8219 3114 8197
TIME...MOT...LOC 1812Z 234DEG 28KT 3114 8246

NELSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
215 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016

GAZ136-152>154-191900-
WAYNE GA-INLAND GLYNN GA-BRANTLEY GA-COASTAL GLYNN GA-
215 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN GLYNN...SOUTHEASTERN
WAYNE AND NORTHEASTERN BRANTLEY COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM EDT...

AT 215 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
WAYNESVILLE...OR 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF NAHUNTA...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
DAMAGE. DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCED WARNING.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BRUNSWICK...DOCK JUNCTION...WAYNESVILLE...EVERETT...THALMANN...RAYBON...
ATKINSON...MOUNT PLEASANT AND HORTENSE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3113 8151 3123 8201 3143 8194 3151 8166
      3149 8164 3148 8162 3147 8161 3145 8163
      3144 8161 3142 8160 3139 8157 3138 8155
      3138 8154 3135 8150
TIME...MOT...LOC 1815Z 275DEG 16KT 3130 8184

NELSON

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
244 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016

FLZ020>022-191930-
COLUMBIA FL-HAMILTON FL-SUWANNEE FL-
244 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN COLUMBIA...NORTHEASTERN
SUWANNEE AND SOUTHEASTERN HAMILTON COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

AT 244 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
SUWANNEE SPRINGS...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JASPER...WHITE SPRINGS...SUWANNEE SPRINGS...BELMONT AND SUWANNEE VALLEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3054 8302 3058 8246 3024 8246 3036 8302
TIME...MOT...LOC 1844Z 271DEG 23KT 3045 8294

HESS