Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Jacksonville, FL

179 
WWUS52 KJAX 132324
SVSJAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
724 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2016

FLC035-109-132345-
/O.CON.KJAX.SV.W.0038.000000T0000Z-160513T2345Z/
ST. JOHNS FL-FLAGLER FL-
724 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN ST. JOHNS AND NORTHEASTERN FLAGLER COUNTIES...

AT 724 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CRESCENT BEACH...
OR 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF PALM COAST...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PALM COAST...SAINT AUGUSTINE...SAINT AUGUSTINE BEACH...MARINELAND...
BUTLER BEACH...CRESCENT BEACH...SAINT AUGUSTINE SHORES...SAINT AUGUSTINE
SOUTH...ELKTON AND DUPONT CENTER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 2955 8116 2962 8145 2978 8147 2979 8145
      2983 8146 2987 8125 2962 8113 2960 8112
TIME...MOT...LOC 2324Z 286DEG 19KT 2973 8131 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

STRUBLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
356 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2016

...Strong thunderstorms possible through early evening across
Northeast and North Central Florida...

.NEAR TERM (Through Saturday)...
Remainder of the afternoon/eve...Storms firing up over northeast
and north central Florida. As a short wave and associated cold
front moves into Se Ga late this afternoon...High-Res model
(HRRR) still persistent on developing more storms along both
seabreeze fronts and moving activity towards the Se. Storms may be
especially strong as the seabreezes collide along the Ne FL coast
during the late afternoon into the early eve. Some storms may be
strong and produce strong and gusty winds in addition to locally
heavy rain and frequent lightning.

Tonight-Saturday...The cold front will continue to move southeast
and be  southeast of the area after midnight. Scattered storms
across Ne Fl will gradually end during the eve. Some storms may
initially linger along the east coast and be locally strong. A
drier airmass will move into the region behind the front late
tonight into Saturday. Low temps later tonight cool to near
seasonal levels and then warm to slightly above normal Sat.

.SHORT TERM (Saturday night through Sunday night)...
Longwave troughing over the Great Lakes and New England will dig
southward on Saturday night and early Sunday, and then will lift
northeastward by Sunday evening. This digging trough will send a
reinforcing dry cold front quickly southward through our area on
Saturday evening, shifting our low level winds to a northwest to
northerly direction and promoting cold air advection as surface
ridging builds into the Tennessee Valley. Lows will fall into the
upper 50s inland to the low/mid 60s at the beaches.

The surface front will stall over north central FL early on
Sunday, with onshore winds developing during the afternoon hours
at coastal locations as our local pressure gradient loosens. This
weather pattern will keep coastal highs near 80, with inland highs
ranging from the lower 80s in southeast GA to the upper 80s in
north central FL. High pressure will continue to build eastward
over the Appalachians on Sunday night, promoting radiational
cooling during the evening hours before high clouds begin to
encroach from the west after midnight. Lows will range from the
low to mid 50s over inland southeast GA to the low/mid 60s at the
coast and across north central FL.

.LONG TERM (Monday though Friday)...
Troughing will lift away from the mid-Atlantic coast and New
England, leaving broad west-southwest flow aloft in place over our
region for much of next week. The stalled front over north central
FL on Sunday night will lift northward through our region on
Monday, with isolated afternoon convection possible along inland-
moving sea breezes. Highs will rebound into the mid/upper 80s
inland, with onshore winds keeping coastal highs in the lower 80s.
Surface ridging will shift well offshore of the Carolinas by
Monday night and Tuesday, with low level winds becoming southerly
and bringing an increasingly humid air mass into our region. Lows
Monday And Tuesday nights will only fall to the upper 60s to
lower 70s. Some weak shortwave energy embedded within the W/SW
flow aloft may enhance diurnal convection on Tuesday afternoon,
with scattered coverage expected along mesoscale boundaries. Highs
will climb to near 90 inland, with low to mid 80s at the beaches.

Troughing will once again dig southward along the U.S. eastern
seaboard towards midweek, sending a frontal boundary into the
southeastern U.S. This front will stall just to the north of our
region, with deep moisture and daily episodes of shortwave energy
moving northeastward through our region enhancing mainly diurnal
convection. Scattered activity is expected on Wednesday afternoon
and evening, with numerous coverage expected for Thursday and
Friday. Activity later this week may linger well into the evening
hours as the surface front sinks toward our region. Highs Wed will
climb to near 90 inland and the mid 80s at the coast, with
increasing rain chances on Thursday and Friday keeping highs in
the 80s. Lows will generally remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Scattered storms still expected later this afternoon and into the
early eve...mainly across Ne Fl...as the cold front approaches.
High-Res models continue to indicate bulk of storms will be after
20Z and possibly through 01Z near the coast which will coincide
with the approach of the front and the seabreeze fronts merging.
Have therefore upgraded previous PROB30 groups to TEMPO groups for
TS and IFR. For the SSI TAF have continued with VCTS with no TEMPO
group as it appears most storms will be south of there. After the
front pushes through this eve... most of the storms will be Se of
the area and prevailing VFR is expected after around 00-01Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Scattered to numerous storms will move east across the waters
this afternoon and early evening in advance of a cold front. A few
of these storms could produce strong gusty winds with locally
higher seas. Otherwise, southwesterly winds will generally average
less than 15 knots. Winds will become northwest early Saturday
morning but should continue to remain less than 15 knots. Another
front will pass across the waters late Saturday night with winds
veering to the north and briefly increasing to around 15 knots.
Onshore winds will prevail from Sunday through early next week
with nocturnal surges expected in the evenings early next week.

RIP CURRENTS: Low risk through the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A much drier air mass will filter into our region on Saturday.
Northwesterly surface winds are expected to remain near 10 mph
during the afternoon hours, with relative humidity values plunging
to near 25 percent for both inland and coastal locations. Fuel
moisture values should remain just above critical thresholds, and
thus Red Flag conditions are not expected. Westerly transport
winds around 15 mph, elevated mixing heights and surface
temperatures around 90 degrees with create high dispersion values
on Saturday afternoon area-wide. A dry air mass will linger at
inland locations on Sunday afternoon, but minimum values should
remain just above critical thresholds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  58  87  56  81 /  10   0   0   0
SSI  65  85  63  78 /  30   0   0   0
JAX  62  89  59  83 /  30   0   0   0
SGJ  68  86  64  81 /  40   0   0   0
GNV  63  90  58  88 /  20   0   0   0
OCF  65  90  59  89 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.JAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

Peterson/Nelson/Combs

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
538 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2016

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-142145-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-INLAND NASSAU-INLAND DUVAL-UNION-
BRADFORD-CLAY-ST. JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-
COASTAL NASSAU-COASTAL DUVAL-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-
WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-
ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
538 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2016

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL NORTHEAST
AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 TO
30 MPH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND COASTAL NORTHEAST FLORIDA THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 40
TO 60 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND HIGH DISPERSION VALUES
WILL CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
INLAND ON MONDAY. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS IN COASTAL NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA ARE
REQUESTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

NELSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
613 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NNW GAINESVILLE       29.71N 82.36W
05/13/2016                   ALACHUA            FL   911 CALL CENTER

            ALACHUA COUNTY 911/DISPATCH REPORTS TREES DOWNED NEAR
            55TH BOULEVARD NEAR GAINESVILLE. TIME OF DAMAGE BASED ON
            RADAR DATA.

&&

NELSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
621 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     LIGHTNING        1 E ST. AUGUSTINE       29.89N 81.30W
05/13/2016                   ST. JOHNS          FL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            ACTION NEWS JACKSONVILLE REPORTS THAT LIGHTNING STRUCK
            THREE CARS AND SET ONE ON FIRE IN DOWNTOWN ST. AUGUSTINE.
            TIME OF DAMAGE BASED ON NATIONAL LIGHTNING DETECTION
            NETWORK DATA.

&&

NELSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
625 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     HAIL             4 E GROVE PARK          29.59N 82.09W
05/13/2016  E0.25 INCH       ALACHUA            FL   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT OF PEA SIZED HAIL...TREE BRANCHES DOWNED
            AND INTENSE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

&&

NELSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
631 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     WILDFIRE         2 WNW MIDDLEBURG        30.06N 81.93W
05/13/2016                   CLAY               FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLORIDA STATE WATCH OFFICE REPORTS A 3 ACRE WILDFIRE IN
            MIDDLEBURG. THERE ARE NO HOMES THREATENED NOR ROAD
            CLOSURES REPORTED.

&&

NELSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
645 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2016

FLZ033-125-132315-
COASTAL DUVAL FL-ST. JOHNS FL-
645 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN ST. JOHNS AND
SOUTHEASTERN DUVAL COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

AT 644 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
BAYARD...OR NEAR FRUIT COVE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FRUIT COVE...WORLD GOLF VILLAGE...PALM VALLEY...SOUTH PONTE VEDRA...
BAYARD...VILANO BEACH...NOCATEE...DURBIN...GUANA RIVER STATE PARK AND
SAWGRASS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 2992 8128 3002 8164 3013 8162 3013 8160
      3012 8157 3012 8154 3010 8154 3011 8151
      3014 8154 3018 8156 3019 8156 3018 8132
      3001 8126
TIME...MOT...LOC 2244Z 279DEG 19KT 3010 8154

STRUBLE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
649 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2016

FLZ033-038-132315-
FLAGLER FL-ST. JOHNS FL-
649 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ST. JOHNS AND
NORTHERN FLAGLER COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

AT 649 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
HASTINGS...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
WIND DAMAGE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PALM COAST...SAINT AUGUSTINE...HASTINGS...SAINT AUGUSTINE BEACH...
MARINELAND...SAINT AUGUSTINE SHORES...SAINT AUGUSTINE SOUTH...BUTLER
BEACH...CRESCENT BEACH...VILANO BEACH...DUPONT CENTER...ANASTASIA...SPUDS
AND ELKTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 2954 8113 2963 8152 2976 8153 2980 8157
      2985 8157 2994 8124 2962 8113
TIME...MOT...LOC 2249Z 279DEG 19KT 2972 8140

STRUBLE