Severe Thunderstorm Warning 17, NWS Jacksonville, FL

149 
WWUS52 KJAX 172006
SVSJAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
406 PM EDT THU MAR 17 2016

GAC039-127-172015-
/O.EXP.KJAX.SV.W.0017.000000T0000Z-160317T2015Z/
GLYNN GA-CAMDEN GA-
406 PM EDT THU MAR 17 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN GLYNN AND
NORTHEASTERN CAMDEN COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 415 PM EDT...
        
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3117 8135 3114 8137 3105 8141 3106 8151
      3104 8150 3098 8141 3090 8141 3100 8147
      3099 8147 3098 8149 3095 8145 3092 8148
      3096 8159 3111 8158 3111 8149 3115 8144
      3112 8141
TIME...MOT...LOC 2004Z 266DEG 19KT 3107 8148 

$$

WALSH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
343 PM EDT THU MAR 17 2016

.NEAR TERM (THROUGH FRIDAY)...

TONIGHT... SHORT WAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE THIS EVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON...THEN TAPER OFF
AND END THIS EVE AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...WILL
KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING TONIGHT FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY DUE TO STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SE GA.

FRIDAY...  FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS EXTREME SE
GA/NE FL WITH PW'S INCREASING TO AROUND 1.4 INCHES. SHORT WAVE
ENERGY WILL COMBINE WITH THE FRONT...AIDED BY THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF
A SUB-TROPICAL JET...TO PRODUCE SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH BEST
CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS STILL FAIRLY COOL ALOFT ALONG
WITH DECENT MID LEVEL SHEAR... SO A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS POSSIBLE.
DAYTIME TEMPS COOLER DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

.SHORT TERM.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN HAS A BROAD TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO
THE MID SOUTH. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL SWEEP THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE BROAD TROUGH. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MIGRATES
EASTWARD, KEEPING THE COLD FRONT STATIONARY ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST EXTENDING EASTWARD NEAR SAINT MARY'S RIVER THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

THIS TROUGH FINALLY DIGS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE MID-
ATLANTICSTATES ON SUNDAY. INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. POCKETS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE AND THESE POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL
BEMAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH LIMITEDCONVECTION OR PERSISTENT RAIN
ALONGTHE STALLED SURFACE FRONT. DURING THE BEGINNING PART OF WEEKEND
WE WILL HAVE CLOUDY SKIES, WHICH WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES. LOWS ON
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 58 TO 63 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS SE GA AND
NE FL, WITH MIN TEMPS DIPPING ABOUT 5 DEGREES ACROSS SE GA AS FRONT
SLIPS SOUTH OF THE FL/GA LINE SATURDAYNIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE
IN THE MID 70S SE GA TO LOWER 80S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. ON
SUNDAY...WITH FROPA COMPLETELY THROUGH HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 8 TO 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY AS PRECIPITATION SLIDES OFF INTO THE
ADJACENT ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...A COLDER AND DRIER
AIRMASS WILL QUICKLY SLIDE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MORNING
LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWS DROPPING TO THE 40S, EXCEPT UPPER 30S
FAR NORTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND
CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PROGRESS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S.COAST BY TUES EVENING AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH. THEN WE WILL WARM UP QUICKLY AGAIN, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S RETURNING BY MID-WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S BY THURSDAY. A TROUGH FROM CALIFORNIA WILL PROGRESS
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RISE LOCALLY
IN RESPONSE TO THIS WEATHER PATTERN...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AND
GRADUALLY INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THURS AFTERNOON OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA
INLAND AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE VCTS AT
ALL NE FL TERMINALS...WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSRA AND MVFR AT MOST
TERMINALS...EXCEPT SSI AND SGJ. CONVECTION SHOULD BE MOVING OUT
AND/OR DISSIPATE AFTER ABOUT 00Z.

&&

.MARINE...PREDOMINATE W/SW WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AREA WATERS
FRIDAY AND STALL...AND MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FRI NIGHT AS
A SFC LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SERN U.S. FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL
LIFT NE TO THE NC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING LOW AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE LOWER
MISS VALLEY.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  59  72  58  73 /  50  60  70  70
SSI  61  69  59  72 /  40  50  70  70
JAX  62  75  60  76 /  40  60  70  70
SGJ  62  73  61  77 /  30  60  70  70
GNV  63  80  61  79 /  30  60  70  70
OCF  62  81  62  80 /  20  40  60  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

PP/SC/RW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
348 PM EDT THU MAR 17 2016

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-181000-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-INLAND NASSAU-INLAND DUVAL-UNION-
BRADFORD-CLAY-ST. JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-
COASTAL NASSAU-COASTAL DUVAL-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-
WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-
ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
348 PM EDT THU MAR 17 2016

...STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNNON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
SAGS SOUTH TOWARDS THE AREA. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COUPLE PRODUCE HAIL...IN ADDITION
TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS...AS THEY MOVE EAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
341 PM EDT THU MAR 17 2016

GAZ154-166-172015-
COASTAL GLYNN GA-COASTAL CAMDEN GA-
341 PM EDT THU MAR 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN GLYNN AND
NORTHEASTERN CAMDEN COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

AT 339 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES SOUTHWEST OF BRUNSWICK...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BRUNSWICK...ST. SIMONS ISLAND...JEKYLL ISLAND AND DOVER BLUFF.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3112 8141 3100 8140 3102 8143 3106 8143
      3104 8146 3106 8151 3098 8141 3089 8141
      3098 8163 3098 8160 3101 8163 3111 8160
      3114 8143 3112 8142 3116 8136 3113 8139
      3114 8137 3113 8136
TIME...MOT...LOC 1939Z 266DEG 19KT 3104 8156

WALSH