Severe Thunderstorm Warning 130, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
300 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

.NEAR TERM.../Through Saturday/...
Strong storms early this afternoon were firing across the Gulf
coast sea breeze and moving through the Suwannee Valley. Other
showers/storms were beginning to develop across the east coast sea
breeze, and this will move in slowly this afternoon. Storms will
then merge over the interior late in the afternoon to early
evening. The main threats from storms will be gusty winds,
frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall.

Deep layer ridge axis across north central Florida will move
northward to near the FL/GA border on Saturday. Temperatures aloft
will cool from -6C to -8C and warm in the 850-700mb layer. So,
low/mid level lapse rates will steepen some compared to today.
However, a little more subsidence aloft is forecast with the
ridge overhead. Scattered storms will develop once again on
Saturday, with strong to marginally severe storms possible.
Convection should fire across the Gulf coast first and move
inland, with storms then firing on the east coast sea breeze.
Highs will be in the low to mid 90s.

.SHORT TERM.../Saturday Night Through Monday/...

High pressure ridge will be over the Western Atlantic this period.
The axis of the ridge is forecast to move slowly from due East
of FL/GA line Saturday night to near GA/SC line Monday. With this
pattern, the flow will gradually turn more onshore. In this
pattern, would expect afternoon convective chances across the
forecast area due to diurnal instability, but the East coast sea
breeze will help push greatest convective chances inland. This
will also result in a greater contrast in high temperatures, with
coastal areas in the upper 80s to around 90, and interior areas
reaching middle 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM.../Monday Night Through Friday/...

Persistent Western Atlantic ridge axis will slide from Northeast
of the region to due East this period. As the ridge moves South
the flow will trend from onshore to more Southeasterly/Southerly.
Also, a trough of low pressure is expected to slide into
Southeastern states mid week and stall.

As the flow becomes less onshore, the afternoon convective pattern
will move from more of a inland focus with sea breeze push, to a
more broad coverage. In addition the presence of the trough will
be an additional focus for convection across SE GA.

As the ridge builds South, and the onshore flow decreases, expect
high temperatures to rise a few degrees from Tuesday into
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Storms developing across the Gulf coast and east coast sea
breezes this afternoon, and storms will get near the TAF sites
throughout the afternoon and into the early evening before
dissipating. Southeast winds 5-10 knots are expected this
afternoon as the east coast sea breeze moves inland. Brief
MVFR/IFR conditions with gusty winds are possible in/around
storms.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly flow will prevail across the waters this week with
speeds generally below 15 kts. Combined seas generally 2-4 ft.

Rip Currents: Low risk.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  96  73  95 /  30  40  30  40
SSI  79  93  78  90 /  20  20  20  20
JAX  74  94  75  93 /  20  30  20  20
SGJ  77  91  76  90 /  10  30  10  20
GNV  73  94  73  93 /  30  50  20  40
OCF  73  94  73  94 /  40  50  20  40

&&

.JAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

Kennedy/Struble/Walker

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
637 AM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-161100-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-INLAND NASSAU-INLAND DUVAL-UNION-
BRADFORD-CLAY-ST. JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-
COASTAL NASSAU-COASTAL DUVAL-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-
WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-
ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
637 AM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE SUWANNEE
RIVER VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. STORM MOTION WILL BE TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND
10 MPH.

ELEVATED HEAT INDICES NEAR 105 ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
EACH DAY. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
416 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0412 PM     HAIL             2 NW WALDO              29.81N 82.19W
07/15/2016  E0.88 INCH       ALACHUA            FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED NICKEL-SIZED HAIL.

&&

KGUILLET

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
421 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

GAZ152-164-165-152100-
INLAND CAMDEN GA-BRANTLEY GA-CHARLTON GA-
421 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CAMDEN...
SOUTHEASTERN BRANTLEY AND NORTHERN CHARLTON COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM
EDT...

AT 421 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR RACE POND...OR 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF FOLKSTON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FOLKSTON...NAHUNTA...HOMELAND...RACE POND...HICKOX AND WINOKUR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3078 8210 3087 8236 3101 8223 3101 8213
      3107 8218 3125 8202 3108 8177
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 223DEG 16KT 3095 8214

SHULER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
425 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

FLZ024-GAZ165-152115-
INLAND NASSAU FL-INLAND CAMDEN GA-
425 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN NASSAU AND WESTERN
CAMDEN COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

AT 425 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER KINGS FERRY...OR 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF HILLIARD...MOVING NORTH
AT 5 MPH.

EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KINGSLAND...HILLIARD...WOODBINE...KINGS FERRY...
TARBORO AND COLESBURG.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3069 8170 3068 8191 3082 8195 3083 8194
      3082 8193 3081 8191 3082 8190 3091 8190
      3091 8192 3095 8189 3097 8190 3107 8175
      3093 8165
TIME...MOT...LOC 2025Z 178DEG 5KT 3076 8181

SHULER

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