Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
236 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

.NEAR TERM.../THROUGH THURSDAY/...

High pressure will build across central Florida and the western
Atlantic this period.

For this afternoon, convection is expected to initiate on the East
coast sea breeze near interstate 95, and slowly move inland. During
the mid afternoon, the West coast sea breeze will push into areas
west of Interstate 75. Later this afternoon into this evening,
convection will develop on a combination of sea breeze boundaries
and outflows, while aided by a weak upper short wave trough.

Convection will dissipate this evening with the loss of diurnal
heating.

Skies will clear overnight.

As the flow becomes more Southerly on Thursday, more moisture will
push North, causing a fairly broad initiation of convection once the
airmass destabilizes from diurnal heating.

Temperatures will remain above normal this period.

.SHORT TERM /Thu Night through Saturday/...

Hot/Humid/Stagnant pattern remains in place as East-West high
pressure ridge axis continues near the I-10 corridor or FL/GA
border region. This will continue with highs in the middle 90s
inland and lower 90s coast with heat indices around 105 degrees
each afternoon. Models continue to try to shunt most of the
deepest moisture inland just north of the ridge axis across SE GA
where PWATS will be closer to 2 inches, while slightly drier
airmass with PWATS will be closer to 1.50-1.75 inches across NE FL
south of the ridge axis. This will still lead to at least
scattered coverage of thunderstorms over inland areas during the
afternoon and evening hours, while activity will linger across SE
GA later in the evening until around midnight, while areas along
the NE FL coast will see a smaller window of shower/storm
activity during the early afternoon hours as the east coast sea
breeze pushes more rapidly inland there. Strong/Isold Storms will
remain more possible across inld North FL and across inland SE GA
as sea breeze mergers/outflows take place during the late
afternoon and early evening hours.

.LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...

Long range models still on track to break down the high pressure
ridge axis as it lifts northward into early next week and this
should allow for a more easterly steering flow, although it will
remain weak. This should allow for a more progressive east coast
sea breeze further inland and will shift the highest pops further
inland each day with brief convection along the coast then at
least scattered coverage during the afternoon/evening hours over
inland north FL and SE GA. Temps will still remain slightly above
normal in the lower to middle 90s, with lows in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Prevailing vfr conditions will persist for much of this 18z taf
period. The exception will be in and near afternoon and evening
convection today, which could cause brief restrictions, as well as
gusty and erratic winds.

&&

.MARINE...
A ridge of high pressure will stretch across the Western Atlantic,
and into central Florida into this weekend. This ridge will slowly
drift North later this weekend, into next week.

Rip Currents: Low Risk continues.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  96  75  96 /  30  40  30  30
SSI  79  93  79  91 /  30  30  20  30
JAX  75  94  76  95 /  20  40  20  30
SGJ  77  93  77  93 /  10  20  20  30
GNV  73  94  74  95 /  30  50  20  40
OCF  73  94  74  94 /  30  40  20  40

&&

.JAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

Struble/Hess/Peterson

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
438 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-140845-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-INLAND NASSAU-INLAND DUVAL-UNION-
BRADFORD-CLAY-ST. JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-
COASTAL NASSAU-COASTAL DUVAL-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-
WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-
ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
438 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST AGAIN
TODAY. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE WITH GUSTY
WINDS. STORMS MAY ALSO CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO SLOW AND
ERRATIC STORM MOTION...AND FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING.
HIGHEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON ARE GENERALLY ACROSS
INLAND NORTHEAST FLORIDA.

HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 105 DEGREES INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
EACH DAY. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

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