Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
237 PM EDT TUE JUL 12 2016

.NEAR TERM (Tonight-Wednesday Night)...

This afternoon-Tonight...Deep layer ridge continues over the area. Strong
cap from earlier has broken due to the convective temp being reached and
isolated storms were rapidly erupting across the inland areas of northeast
Florida. As both the west and east coast seabreezes push inland later
afternoon...scattered storms will continue to develop with strong storms
possible. High-Res model continues to indicate most activity across
inland Ne Fl...however some storms may make it to near the Okefenokee
Swamp as well as coastal Nassau county and coastal areas of Se Ga.
Strong storms possible with strong wind gusts...frequent lightning...
and locally heavy rain in excess of 2 inches (given light steering flow).
Storms will fade out during the evening due to loss of heating.
Rest of the night will have clouds gradually decreasing with min
temps in the mid/upper 70s...warmest along the coast.

Wednesday-Wednesday Night ...little change in the overall pattern,
though mean layer ridge looks to move right over the forecast area.
So, hot and humid weather remains the story again...with scattered
afternoon showers and storms developing from afternoon heating and
sea breezes pushing inland. Forecast max temps end up slightly higher
than today with a few inland locations possibly reaching the century
mark and heat indices may reach thresholds for an advisory especially
across portions of inland Se Ga.

.SHORT TERM /Thu-Fri/...

East to West High pressure ridge axis will continue to bisect the
region very close to the FL/GA border with light SW steering flow
across SE GA and light SE steering flow across NE FL. This will
still allow for above normal/HOT temps with highs into the middle
to upper 90s over inland areas and lower 90s along the coast while
heat indices will continue to top out in the 104-108 degree range
each afternoon, once again very close to heat advisory criteria.
Atmosphere will remain moist enough with PWATs averaging around
1.75 inches to support daily scattered afternoon/evening storms
mainly over inland areas as the Atlc/Gulf Coast Sea breeze fronts
push inland each day. Activity expected to start first across NE
FL each day then propagate slowly northward and impact SE GA
later in the afternoon and evening. Quiet conds expected during
the overnight hours with lows generally in the mid/upper 70s
inland and near 80 along the river/coast.

.LONG TERM /Sat-Tue/...

Long-range models are still trying to lift the ridge at the
surface and aloft towards the north into the GA/SC region, but
still not convinced that this pattern will shift that quickly and
believe that a continuation of above normal/HOT temps and
generally scattered diurnal thunderstorm activity at least through
the weekend, with a possible shift towards early next week.
Overall day to day differences not that significant other than a
shift towards convection further inland across NE FL as the
easterly steering flow by early next week will push the Atlc Coast
sea breeze inland faster each day. Max temps still well into the
90s with heat indices close to 105 degrees each day.

&&

.AVIATION...Scattered storms expected to continue to develop as
seabreezes move inland. Have VCTS at all Ne Fl terminals and
tempo group at Jax for ocnl TSRA with MVFR. Additional amendments
may be needed for TS with MVFR vsby/cigs. Otherwise prevailing VFR
expected with scattered showers/storms fading in the eve.

&&

.MARINE...Southerly flow will prevail this week as surface high
pressure dominates east to southeast over the western Atlantic.
Southerly wind surges expected by late afternoon through the
evening hours up to or just below exercise caution levels.
Combined seas 2-4 ft expected...except briefly higher around 3-5 ft
during the surges.

Rip Currents: Generally low risk through Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  97  75  97 /  20  30  30  40
SSI  79  94  79  93 /  20  20  20  30
JAX  75  96  76  96 /  20  30  20  30
SGJ  77  92  77  93 /  20  20  20  30
GNV  73  96  73  96 /  30  40  30  40
OCF  74  96  73  95 /  30  40  30  40

&&

.JAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

Hess/Peterson/Guillet

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
324 AM EDT TUE JUL 12 2016

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-130730-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-INLAND NASSAU-INLAND DUVAL-UNION-
BRADFORD-CLAY-ST. JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-
COASTAL NASSAU-COASTAL DUVAL-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-
WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-
ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
324 AM EDT TUE JUL 12 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 102 TO 107 DEGREES CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND CONTINUE UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER INTERIOR NORTH FLORIDA AND
OVER THE OKEFENOKEE SWAMP LATE IN THE DAY AND MOVE NORTH TOWARD
THE BLACKSHEAR...BAXLEY AND JESUP AREA. STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED EACH DAY. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

SANDRIK

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
304 PM EDT TUE JUL 12 2016

FLZ025-125-121945-
INLAND DUVAL FL-COASTAL DUVAL FL-
304 PM EDT TUE JUL 12 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL DUVAL COUNTY UNTIL 345 PM
EDT...

AT 304 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
DOWNTOWN JACKSONVILLE. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JACKSONVILLE...ARLINGTON...SAN MARCO...RIVERSIDE AND TALLYRAND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3040 8173 3044 8161 3032 8153 3026 8168
TIME...MOT...LOC 1904Z 333DEG 1KT 3036 8163

HESS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
308 PM EDT TUE JUL 12 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0237 PM     HAIL             4 E JACKSONVILLE INTL A 30.48N 81.63W
07/12/2016  E0.25 INCH       DUVAL              FL   NWS EMPLOYEE

            NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EMPLOYEE REPORTED HAIL SLIGHTLY
            BIGGER THAN PEA SIZE AT AIRPORT CENTER DRIVE AND MAIN
            STREET.

&&

SHULER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
314 PM EDT TUE JUL 12 2016

FLZ023-122000-
BAKER FL-
314 PM EDT TUE JUL 12 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL BAKER COUNTY UNTIL 400 PM
EDT...

AT 314 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
SANDERSON...OR 18 MILES NORTH OF RAIFORD. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY
STATIONARY.

HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TAYLOR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3049 8226 3044 8220 3043 8221 3041 8221
      3038 8219 3038 8218 3036 8216 3036 8214
      3026 8224 3039 8239
TIME...MOT...LOC 1914Z 306DEG 1KT 3034 8226

NELSON

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