Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
358 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday...Analysis of water vapor
imagery indicates that the mid-level ridge of high pressure remains
centered over Tennessee and the Mid South this afternoon. A burst of
afternoon convection associated with tropical moisture wrapping
around the ridge extends from the central Gulf of Mexico through
south Louisiana and into western Tennessee. The greatest chance for
thunderstorms in the ArkLaMiss this afternoon and evening will be
closest to this plume of moisture - northeast Louisiana, southeast
Arkansas, and southern Mississippi. Otherwise isolated to widely
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible, with
coverage diminishing overnight. Afternoon heat index values have
crept up to near 105 in several locations especially around the Delta
region, and a similarly hot and humid airmass tomorrow could see an
expanded area of heat stress risk. See the latest graphical and text
Hazardous Weather Outlook products for areas covered by a Limited
heat risk today and tomorrow. Patchy fog will likely develop across
portions of the area tonight. The ridge of high pressure should
continue drifting north and east through the end of the week and will
be centered over the Carolinas by Saturday afternoon. This will
lessen heat stress impacts slightly for Saturday. Rain chances lower
however, as a forecasted weak disturbance along the TX/LA coastline
should keep deeper atmospheric moisture confined towards the Gulf
Coast./NF/

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...There still remains
considerable uncertainty regarding later periods of this forecast, as
forecast models struggle to resolve details of the eastern CONUS
ridge and its interaction with several tropical features through
early next week. The recent trend in model guidance is to limit any
potential impacts to the ArkLaMiss from any tropical systems, however
poor consistency among model runs means lower confidence in the
extended forecast at this time. Generally used a consensus of model
guidance for early to mid-week forecast elements, though also gave
some consideration to typical summertime climatology. For details
regarding any tropical development over the next few days, follow
the latest updates and discussions from the National Hurricane
Center. There is some indication that the ridge will try to build
back towards our region late next week so have kept temps a few
degrees above normal./NF/

&&

VFR conditions will prevail for the majority of the period. Until
26/02Z, vicinity TSRA will be possible at KGLH, KGWO, KHKS, and
KJAN. TAF sites impacted by convection can expect a brief lowering of
ceilings and visibilities to IFR/MVFR. Areas of fog developing prior
to dawn at KGWO and KGLH may lower visibilities to MVFR, but the fog
should burn off by 14Z. /26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       75  93  74  94 /  19  27  10  10
Meridian      75  94  74  95 /  16  17  10  10
Vicksburg     74  94  74  93 /  24  47  15  10
Hattiesburg   74  93  74  93 /  20  14  10  15
Natchez       73  90  73  91 /  27  40  16  19
Greenville    75  94  75  93 /  18  52  10  14
Greenwood     75  93  75  94 /  16  38  10  14

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

06/06/26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
250 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023-025-MSZ018-019-025>058-262000-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-TENSAS-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-
CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-
WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-
SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-
SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-
CLARKE-
250 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...EAST
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

EXCESSIVE HEAT
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...FRIDAY

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FRIDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S COMBINED WITH
HIGH HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES AROUND 105.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

LAZ024-026-MSZ059>066-072>074-262000-
CATAHOULA-CONCORDIA-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
250 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

21

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*EXCESSIVE HEAT*
EXTREME...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX GREATER THAN 110 DEGREES FOR 3 OR
 MORE DAYS IN A ROW AND/OR AIR TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 107
 DEGREES.
SIGNIFICANT...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX GREATER THAN 110 DEGREES
 AND/OR AIR TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 105 DEGREES.
ELEVATED...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX 105 TO 110 DEGREES AND/OR AIR
 TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 103 DEGREES.
LIMITED...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX NEAR 105 DEGREES AND/OR AIR
 TEMPERATURES 100 TO 103 DEGREES.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
NWS JAN TROPICAL PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=TROPICAL
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HOME PAGE...
   WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

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