Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
409 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

.SHORT TERM...tonight through Saturday night...
It has rained most of the day over our southeast most zones but at
mid afternoon very little activity was noted on local radars in our
CWA. There will remain a chance of rain areawide this afternoon and
evening but the greatest chance for rain will be over our western
zones. A weak shortwave noted on water vapor imagery/RAP analysis
over the ArkLaTex will track east and help set off a few storms. A
strong wind gust will be possible but nothing comparable to last
evening is expected. Much of this activity will dissipate with the
loss of daytime heating but weak upper level troughing will remain
over our area through Saturday and a late night storm or two will be
hard to rule out. Our moist airmass with a PWAT near 2 inches will
remain over the area Saturday. Daytime heating will combine with our
moist airmass and weak troughing aloft to lead to the development of
isolated to scattered storms again. Afternoon highs will be close to
normal in the lower 90s leading to decent surface based CAPE but
overall wet microburst parameters look less favorable than today.
Ridging aloft will begin to build back over the region from the west
Saturday night. Sunday morning lows will be a degree or two warmer
than normal again. /22/

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Friday...
Hot temps and limited convection will be the rule during this
period. A building mid/upper level ridge with its axis oriented west-
to-east across the southern CONUS will be in place at the beginning
of the period. As the ridge builds, convection will be increasingly
suppressed as warmer/drier air becomes dominant aloft. Only the
eastern/southeastern periphery will have any convective potential,
but coverage will be isolated to widely scattered at best.

Model consensus is that max temps will rise a couple of degrees
daily as the ridge builds. Mid 90s at the beginning of the week will
rise into the upper 90s by weeks end. With dewpoints holding firm in
the low to mid 70s, high heat indices will likely become a problem
during the week./26/

&&

.AVIATION...
A mix of VFR/MVFR ceilings continue to be observed at
sites across the region this afternoon.  This will likely be the
case throughout much of remainder of the forecast period thanks to
low clouds across much of the area along and convection that's
sporadically developing this afternoon, primarily south of the
Interstate 20 corridor. Winds will subside this evening, becoming
light to calm. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       74  92  74  94 /  20  47  13  36
Meridian      73  92  73  94 /  17  50  15  40
Vicksburg     74  93  74  94 /  40  39  10  27
Hattiesburg   73  94  74  93 /  31  58  20  45
Natchez       74  90  74  92 /  39  50  18  37
Greenville    74  93  75  95 /  26  34   8  15
Greenwood     74  92  74  94 /  18  38   9  18

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

22/26/19