Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
518 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

.UPDATE...MCS currently over Central AR is showing no signs of
losing steam and is currently on track to reach the NW corner of the
CWA between 7 and 8 pm. Forecast for tonight has ben overhauled to
significantly increase POPs across the Delta. HWO/graphics have been
revised to add a limited threat generally north of I-20 and an
elevated threat across much of the Delta. Damaging winds will be the
main concern, but there have been a few deeper cores capable
of producing severe hail. Updated products have already been shipped.
/DL/

&&

.DISCUSSION... /Issued at 400 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016/
SHORT TERM... The storms across our northern counties dissipated
as the shortwave helping to develop the activity shifted northeast
of Mississippi. Local radars this afternoon had scattered storms
mainly southeast of a Natchez to Meridian line. This activity will
continue into the early evening hours before dissipating. Microburst
potential with these storms were lower so have pulled mention of
severe storms from our HWO. Additional rain chances are possible
tonight from the northwest. Afternoon water vapor imagery/RAP
analysis had a second shortwave topping the large 594dam ridge over
the southern plains.
This shortwave was helping develop a complex of storms moving east
into western Arkansas. As the mid level ridge continues to weaken
tonight the complex of storms may move more to the southeast and
toward our northwest zones. A few strong storms can not be ruled out
especially over our northwest most zones but the complex is expected
to weaken as it enters our CWA later this evening. Wl still have a
moist airmass over our CWA Friday along with lower heights and a
potential surface boundary left over from the storms tonight. Daytime
heating should lead to scattered to numerous coverage of storms by
afternoon. Cooler afternoon temperatures are expected areawide. The
warmest temperatures will be in our west where the lowest pops will
be carried. A storm or two with strong gusty winds will be possible
Friday as well. /22/

LONG TERM...
Saturday through Wednesday...At the beginning of the period a large
ridge, centered over northern old Mexico, will extend over the
southern CONUS and out into the Atlantic. A weakness in the ridge
will exist over the lower MS valley/TN valley where a weak cold front
will coincidentally be located. With convergence along the frontal
boundary, 6-7 c/km lapse rates, and PWs near 2 inches, believe a good
scattering of convection will result in the heat of the day.

From Sunday through the end of the period, the weak front will have
moved back north of the area as the mid/upper level ridging
continues. The increased warming aloft will have the affect of
hindering convective possibilities for the majority of the area,
with southeast sections having the best, albeit slight, chances if
any system can pass on the periphery of the ridge.

Meanwhile, temperatures will become quite hot, especially over the
ArkLaMiss Delta region where any afternoon convection will be hard
to come by. It is in these areas that maximums will steadily rise
each afternoon through the mid 90s into the upper 90s by
Tuesday/Wednesday with heat indices around 105. /26/

&&

.AVIATION...
Isolated to scattered storms are developing across portions of the
area this afternoon thanks to daytime heating and an outflow boundary
dropping east southeast through the northeast corner of the region. A
few storms could be intense, producing gusty winds and frequent
lighting. Some small hail will be possible with the a storm or two as
well. If convection is observed on station, flight categories could
be briefly reduced to IFR status due to degraded visibilities and
ceiling heights. Convection should begin to wane in coverage and
intensity after sunset this evening.  /19/

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

DL/22/26/19

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
529 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

MSZ031-039-142300-
NOXUBEE MS-LOWNDES MS-
529 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN NOXUBEE AND
SOUTHEASTERN LOWNDES COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

AT 528 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR BIGBEE VALLEY...OR NEAR PICKENSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN
NOXUBEE AND SOUTHEASTERN LOWNDES COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3324 8831 3322 8831 3324 8840 3334 8841
      3337 8829
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 268DEG 17KT 3330 8834

7

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
545 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

MSZ046-142330-
KEMPER MS-
545 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN KEMPER COUNTY UNTIL
630 PM CDT...

AT 545 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES NORTHWEST OF ELECTRIC MILLS...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ELECTRIC MILLS AROUND 555 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE SCOOBA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3275 8868 3292 8869 3292 8838 3277 8838
TIME...MOT...LOC 2245Z 261DEG 11KT 3287 8851

7