Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
905 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

.UPDATE...Have allowed the severe watch to expire as of 9 pm.
Otherwise took out severe wording and kept pops for the rest of the
night as the front comes into our counties. Left overnight temps as
forecast.
/17/

./PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...446 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

...SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
AS WELL AS OPPRESSIVE HEAT WANES TOWARD THE EVENING...

Latest satellite imagery showed the severe cold top complex of
storms moving south in the ArkLaMiss. It was immersed in a very
unstable airmass. On the surface the back door front was making its
way toward my northern counties. Temps across the ArkLaTex were from
the rain cooled lower 80s to the middle 90s. We have been receiving
reports of trees down in some of our warned counties. Hi res models
continue to show the complex moving rapidly through the region and
will exit by early evening via severe thunderstorm watch. The
primary risks will continue to be gusty winds to 70 mph and quarter
sized hail.

For tonight expect the complex to exit the cwa by early evening.
However rain chances will continue through the night as the front
passes through the region through early Saturday. As we push through
the weekend rain chances will continue as a series of weak
disturbances cross the region in the wake of the front to the south.
Meanwhile mid-upper ridging will be building over the region from a
600 dkm high from the plains. Highs will be slightly cooler over the
weekend with highs mainly in the lower 90s Saturday as well as
middle 80s to around 90 Sunday. With slightly lower dewpoints heat
indices will stay below 100 through the weekend./17/

.LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday...The extended portion of the
forecast will be characterized by more seasonable temperatures, with
a couple shots of slightly drier air possible.

Mid level heights will increase as mid level drying continues Monday
into Tuesday, resulting in a continued decrease in rain chances.
This will allow temps to begin to tick back upward through the low
90s to possibly mid 90s in a few spots. By Wednesday into Thursday
we could see a reprise of what we are seeing at the end of this
week. Another shortwave is forecast to round the eastern perimeter
of the mid/upper trough on the nose of an upper jet max extending
from the lower Appalachians back into the Canadian Prairies. This
will likely nudge another backdoor cold front into the region,
bringing increased rain chances over the middle portion of the week.
This could also result in a similar influx of drier air over much of
the area by the end of the week. /DL/17/

&&

.AVIATION...After the convection. There may be some small window of
MVFR vis conditions in the 10-13z timeframe for locations that see
more rain./17/CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       74  92  72  88 /  32  27  19  23
Meridian      73  94  72  90 /  33  31  21  11
Vicksburg     74  92  73  89 /  35  25  17  31
Hattiesburg   75  91  73  87 /  34  43  33  36
Natchez       74  91  73  86 /  30  33  27  46
Greenville    74  92  74  89 /  26  15   6  14
Greenwood     72  92  73  89 /  21  15   7  10

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...NONE.

LA...NONE.

AR...NONE.

&&

17/CME/BB/DL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
551 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

ARZ074-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ053-059>062-182300-
ASHLEY-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-MADISON LA-
FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-CLAIBORNE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-
FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
551 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...TONIGHT

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

ARZ075-MSZ018-019-025>027-034>036-040>043-047>050-054>057-063>066-
072>074-182300-
CHICOT-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-WASHINGTON-
HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-WARREN-HINDS-
RANKIN-SCOTT-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-
COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
551 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO PORTIONS OF
THIS EVENING. STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST OUT OF NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI. DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL ARE
THE PRIMARY THREAT.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

MSZ028>033-037>039-044>046-051-052-058-182300-
MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLARKE-
551 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

CME

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
SIGNIFICANT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF
 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
LIMITED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60
 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
NWS JAN TROPICAL PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=TROPICAL
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HOME PAGE...
   WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/
SPC...MESO ANALYSIS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/EXPER/MESOANALYSIS/NEW/#
SPC...DAY 1 THROUGH 3 OUTLOOKS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/
SPC...STORM REPORTS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/CLIMO/
NWS JAN CURRENT SVR/TOR WATCHES...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RTIMAGES/JAN/WATCH/TOASVA.PNG

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
926 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 N LAUREL              31.75N 89.15W
06/17/2016                   JONES              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            *** 1 INJ *** FALLING LIMBS CAUSED ONE INJURY IN THE
            SHADY GROVE COMMUNITY IN JONES COUNTY. PERSON INJURED WAS
            TRANSPORTED TO THE HOSPITAL.

&&

DCOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
942 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     TSTM WND DMG     10 ESE BRANDON          32.24N 89.83W
06/17/2016                   RANKIN             MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            LARGE TREE WAS UPROOTED AND DESTROYED THREE CHURCH CABINS
            AT SHILOH CHURCH CAMP ON THE GROUNDS OF SHILOH UNITED
            METHODIST CHURCH IN PELAHATCHIE. REPORT AND PICTURE
            RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

DCOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
948 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LOUISVILLE              33.12N 89.05W
06/17/2016                   WINSTON            MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREES AND LARGE LIMBS DOWNED IN LOUISVILLE...CAUSING
            DAMAGE TO A TRUCK. REPORT AND PICTURE RELAYED VIA SOCIAL
            MEDIA.

&&

DCOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
953 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ARCOLA                  33.27N 90.88W
06/17/2016                   WASHINGTON         MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND POWERLINES WERE DOWNED IN ARCOLA.

&&

DCOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
958 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 E HOLLANDALE          33.18N 90.77W
06/17/2016                   WASHINGTON         MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TIN ROOF WAS BLOWN OFF OF A BUILDING AND BLOCKING WATSON
            ROAD NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 12.

&&

DCOX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1004 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

LAZ016-180330-
MADISON LA-
1004 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL MADISON PARISH UNTIL
1030 PM CDT...

AT 1004 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR AFTON...OR NEAR TALLULAH...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  AFTON AROUND 1030 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3240 9126 3236 9105 3222 9106 3223 9108
      3221 9112 3224 9112 3225 9115 3224 9121
      3221 9124 3223 9128 3221 9131 3220 9132
      3221 9136
TIME...MOT...LOC 0304Z 014DEG 10KT 3232 9118

19