Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
311 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday night...Morning convection
eventually moved out of the area and/or diminished in intensity
which resulted in a brief lull in convective activity early this
afternoon. However, additional showers and thunderstorms have begun
to develop over the last hour or so and coverage has increased across
the ArkLaMiss region. Most of the convection has developed across
eastern Mississippi thanks to a weak convergence boundary leftover
from yesterday that has migrated east. A smattering of showers has
been developing further west but the coverage is much higher across
the east. Cloud cover this afternoon has kept temperatures on the
lower side today than yesterday. As of 2pm, temperatures have reached
the mid to upper 80s with locations in the east topping out in the
lower 90s. This is some 3 to 6 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago.

Afternoon convection will once again diminish with the loss of
daytime heating later this evening. It will be another mild night
with overnight lows remaining in the upper 60s/near 70.

Moisture will be on the increase starting tomorrow through the end
of the week. Dewpoints will rise into the lower 70s and PW values
will increase from about 1.65 inches tomorrow to about 1.9 inches by
the end of the week. Isolated to scattered storms will again be
possible tomorrow mainly during the heat of the day. Some hi-res
models indicate some showers ongoing earlier in the morning but
expect the majority of the convection to take place during the peak
heating. /28/

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...A cooler and wetter pattern
is still expected for the long term period. A stalled cold front will
be just northwest of our CWA Thursday while a weak southern stream
closed low moves over the Southern Plains. Downstream of this low a
rather moist air mass with above normal pwats around an inch and
three quarters will reside over our region. The close proximity of
the closed low and the stalled cold front will lead to greater rain
chances Thursday with the greatest rain chances over our northwest
zones. The increased rain chances and associated cloud cover will
limit insolation and result in cooler afternoon highs. The ECMWF and
GFS agree that this closed low will linger over the eastern half of
Texas through Saturday before weakening into an open trough Sunday.
This will maintain cloud cover and rain chances over our CWA through
the weekend. The weakening southern stream trough Sunday will be
replaced over our CWA by a deepening northern stream upper upper
level trough that will encompass the eastern CONUS. This northern
stream trough will send a cold front into our CWA Sunday. The GFS
pushes this cold front to the Gulf coast by Monday morning with
cooler and drier air over our CWA ending rain chances. The ECMWF
stalls the cold front Monday along the southern fringe of my CWA.
Cooler than normal afternoon highs are expected Friday through
Monday but morning lows will continue at or above normal through the
period. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...Expect mainly VFR conditions through the remainder of
this afternoon into the evening hours. Some very isolated spots of
IFR will be around this afternoon in the midst of isolated to
scattered thunderstorms. Winds will be light today, except around
areas of storms. Spotty brief fog may be possible late tonight over
areas that receive some rainfall. The fog will lift by 13z./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       70  90  69  90 /  19  24  20  27
Meridian      67  90  68  92 /  26  23  16  13
Vicksburg     69  90  69  90 /  18  24  22  38
Hattiesburg   68  92  68  92 /  18  20  10  14
Natchez       68  90  71  87 /  14  20  17  40
Greenville    69  90  70  88 /  25  34  34  49
Greenwood     67  90  69  88 /  28  37  29  37

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

28/22/17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
314 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
012015-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
314 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...EAST
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

28

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

NO SHORT TERM HAZARDS EXPECTED.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
631 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

MSZ047-053-010015-
WARREN MS-CLAIBORNE MS-
631 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL WARREN AND CENTRAL
CLAIBORNE COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

AT 630 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR ROCKY SPRINGS...OR 19 MILES SOUTH OF VICKSBURG...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ROCKY SPRINGS AROUND 650 PM CDT.
  REGANTON AROUND 710 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 3234 9078 3228 9071 3227 9072 3226 9072
      3226 9073 3225 9071 3224 9073 3203 9072
      3186 9095 3187 9115
TIME...MOT...LOC 2330Z 223DEG 15KT 3204 9091

DB