Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
351 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2016

.Discussion...

.Tonight through Friday night...A cold front will move through the
cwa this evening into tonight with some showers and storms expected.
There is enough instability for a few strong storms to
develop...with a severe storm or two possible as well. Lows tonight
will be in the upper 50s north to mid 60s south. High pressure will
be building in Friday with dry weather expected for Friday and
Friday night. Cooler northerly flow will keep highs Friday mainly in
the low 80s...with lows Friday night mainly in the low to mid 50s.
/27/

.Saturday through Wednesday...Come Saturday morning a stalled cold
front will be draped along the Gulf coast while a second cold front
will be nearing northern Mississippi. This second cold front still
looks to drop into our cwa during the afternoon as a dry cold front
Saturday but there are a couple of models suggesting convection over
our southwest along the front. Wl go with consensus and not
introduce pops. This cold front will stall as well Saturday evening
just south of our cwa. In its wake a surface High over the central
CONUS will track east through Sunday to the mid Atlantic seaboard by
Monday morning. This will keep the Gulf closed and limit low level
moisture through the weekend maintaining a dry air mass over the
eastern portions of our cwa but rain chances will be hard to ignore
over the western portions of our cwa as we go into Sunday. Our flow
aloft will become near zonal Sunday and then back to the southwest
Monday ahead of a deepening trough over the southwest CONUS.
Convective activity over the southern plains will try to spread east
into our cwa as early as Saturday night and continue through Sunday
night. Return flow will develop back over our cwa during the day
Monday which will help send the stalled front back north as a weak
warm front. The increase in deep moisture combined with daytime
heating will contribute to a greater coverage of afternoon and
evening storms over our cwa. Most of the convection should see a
distinct diurnal weakening with the loss of daytime heating but the
ECMWF is showing a potent shortwave in the southwest flow aloft
Monday night that could prolong rain chances into Tuesday. There are
significant differences between the GFS and ECMWF with timing and
rainfall amounts across our CWA Tuesday night into Thursday but a
wet period where several inches of rain will be possible over the
area looks likely. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...Best chances for TSRA associated with the cold front
will shift south from GLH/GWO/GTR this AFTN to roughly the JAN/HKS to
MEI corridor early this evening and perhaps the HBG late this
evening. There may still be some potential for LIFR/IFR category
stratus to develop mainly in the HBG area where drier air will be
slowest to move in. As we go through Friday, skies should be mostly
clear with VFR conditions prevailing across the entire area. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       62  81  55  83 /  47   8   2   4
Meridian      61  81  52  83 /  42  10   3   4
Vicksburg     63  81  57  83 /  40   8   2   6
Hattiesburg   66  85  57  86 /  30  14   6   4
Natchez       65  80  58  84 /  29  12   4  10
Greenville    59  80  58  78 /  35   4   1   4
Greenwood     59  80  56  78 /  46   4   1   4

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
231 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2016

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
131945-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
231 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...EAST
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

21

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

NO SHORT TERM HAZARDS EXPECTED.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

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